AI推理驅動儲存需求：QLC SSD 成長迫在眉睫

AI 驅動的資料爆炸性成長預計將引發資料中心儲存的結構性變革。 HDD 短缺正在加速 QLC SSD 的需求，尤其是大容量產品。儘管存在成本方面的考慮，但 HDD 的缺口不斷擴大，促使北美雲端服務供應商 (CSP) 開始考慮 QLC SSD 作為冷資料儲存的替代方案。雖然供應商產能限制和 CSP 的價格敏感度會導致短期價格談判，但從長遠來看，未解決的 HDD 問題將促使 QLC SSD 需求爆發式成長。

主要亮點

• 需求變化：AI 應用的快速成長正在推動資料的爆炸性成長，顯著增加資料中心的儲存需求。
• 供應鏈瓶頸：HDD 供應商保守的產能擴張導致交貨時間過長，阻礙了雲端服務供應商滿足其快速部署需求，並擴大了儲存缺口。
• 技術替代：HDD 的短缺正在推動 QLC SSD 成為冷資料儲存的替代方案，北美資料中心開始評估其可行性。
• 成本考量：雲端服務供應商 (CSP) 根據單位儲存成本評估 QLC SSD，但其成本必須在 HDD 的三倍以內才能達到整體成本平衡。
• 供應商策略：SSD 供應商受益於 HDD 訂單的轉移，而 QLC SSD 容量有限且技術壁壘高，大幅降價難以接受。
• 價格談判：CSP 堅持價格標準，但 SSD 製造商不願妥協，導致 QLC SSD 在短期內無法大規模採用。
• 長期趨勢：HDD 供應問題難以解決，迫使 CSP 尋求替代方案。

目錄

第一章：AI 推理需求成長導致儲存產品短缺

第二章：由於 NL HDD 短缺，QLC SSD 明年將大幅成長

• 企業級 SSD 價格預測

第三章：HDD 升級至 QLC SSD 取代 SSD 前仍需應對成本和生產課題。

• HDD 和 SSD 的交貨時間、價格和主流容量
• 企業級 SSD：位元需求和 NAND 快閃記憶體市場佔有率的成長
• 供應商分佈：NAND 快閃記憶體總位供應量和 QLC 產量

TrendForce indicates AI-driven data explosion causes structural changes in data center storage. HDD shortage accelerates QLC SSD demand, especially high-capacity products. Despite cost considerations, the widening HDD gap prompts North American CSPs to evaluate QLC SSD as cold data storage alternative. Supplier capacity constraints and CSP price sensitivity lead to short-term price negotiations, but in the long run, unresolved HDD issues will lead to explosive growth in QLC SSD demand.

Key Highlights:

• Demand Shift: AI applications surge, leading to data explosion and significantly increasing data center storage demand, which traditional HDD supply chains struggle to meet.
• Supply Chain Bottleneck: HDD vendors' conservative capacity expansion leads to extended lead times, failing to meet cloud service providers' rapid deployment needs, widening the storage gap.
• Technology Substitution: HDD shortage promotes QLC SSD as an alternative for cold data storage, with North American data centers beginning to evaluate its feasibility.
• Cost Considerations: CSPs evaluate QLC SSD based on cost per unit storage, which must be controlled within three times that of HDD to achieve overall cost balance.
• Vendor Strategy: SSD vendors benefit from HDD order transfers but are unwilling to significantly lower prices due to limited QLC SSD capacity and high technical barriers.
• Price Negotiation: CSPs adhere to price baselines, while SSD manufacturers are unwilling to compromise, resulting in a failure to adopt QLC SSD on a large scale in the short term.
• Long-Term Trend: HDD supply issues are difficult to resolve, making it necessary for CSPs to find alternatives, and QLC SSD demand is expected to grow explosively next year.

Table of Contents

1. Shortages for Storage Products under Emergence of Demand for AI Inference

2. NL HDD Shortage Will Lead to Significant Increase in QLC SSDs Next Year

• Enterprise SSD Price Projection

3. Challenges Remain in Replacing HDD with QLC SSD with Respect to Cost and Production

• Lead Times/Prices/Mainstream Capacities of HDD & SSD
• Enterprise SSDs - Demand Bit Growth and Corresponding Share in NAND Flash Market Demand
• Distribution by Supplier - Overall NAND Flash Supply Bits and QLC Output