全球電池供需預測：汽車各OEM（～2035年）

Chasm（需求斷層），成為象徵近幾年的電動車市場成長停頓的言詞。

關於造成需求斷層的原因，有許多假設。有人指出，早期電動車用戶已經購買完畢，導致新增需求放緩。另一種理論認為，去年冬季北美遭遇的嚴寒天氣導致電動車續航里程大幅下降。此外，對反覆發生火災事故的擔憂也加劇了消費者對電動車的擔憂。

本報告分析了全球電動車市場，並對主要OEM的電動車產量和電池供應進行了詳細預測。報告還依地區、主要電池供應商、正極材料和電池類型預測了這些OEM電動車使用的二次電池來源。

目錄

第1章 全球乘用EV市場預測

• 全球小客車電氣化率預測
• 全球電動小客車的銷售預測：各地區
• 全球電動小客車用電池需求預測：各地區
• 全球電動小客車和電池需求預測：各地區
• 全球電動小客車用電池需求：各正極材料

第2章 全球主要OEM的EV市場預測

• 全球主要OEM的電動小客車的銷售預測
• 全球主要OEM的電動小客車的銷售比率預測
• 全球主要OEM的電動小客車的銷售的預測：各製造廠商
• 全球主要OEM的電動車用電池需求預測

第3章 全球主要OEM的EV市場預測：各製造廠商

• Tesla
• VW（Volkswagen）
• HKMC（Hyundai-Kia）
• Toyota
• R-N-M（Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance）
• Stellantis
• Ford
• GM
• BMW
• Mercedes-Benz
• Geely
• Honda
• BYD

Chasm has become a term symbolizing the recent stagnation in the growth of the electric vehicle market.

There are various hypotheses regarding the causes of this chasm. Some suggest that early adopters of EVs have already made their purchases, leading to a slowdown in new demand. Others attribute it to the significant reduction in EV driving range caused by the severe cold wave in North America last winter. Additionally, concerns about recurring fire incidents have contributed to consumer apprehension about EVs.

So, how will the market ultimately grow? In response to this question, SNE Research released its "<2024.2H> Global Electric Vehicle Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035)" last October.

However, industry stakeholders have requested more specific market forecasts, including expectations on which battery suppliers major OEMs will choose, changes in battery form factors, and the usage proportion of major cathode materials.

SNE Research has published this report to address these various industry inquiries. The newly released "<2025> Global Battery Supply and Demand Outlook by Automotive OEM (~2035)" provides a detailed forecast of electric vehicle production and battery supply for major OEMs, including Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai Motor Group, Toyota, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Stellantis, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Geely (the parent company of Volvo's passenger car division), and BYD. The report categorizes and forecasts the supply sources of secondary batteries used in these OEMs' electric vehicles by region (North America, Europe, China, and other markets), major battery suppliers, cathode materials (NCx/LFP), and form factors (prismatic, pouch, cylindrical).

The regional and cathode material data for the overall OEM electrification outlook is based on the figures from the "<2024.2H> Global Electric Vehicle Market and Battery Supply-Demand Outlook (~2035)" report, released in October.

We hope that this report, which provides a detailed forecast of major car makers leading the future electric vehicle market, will be valuable to industry stakeholders.

Table of Contents

1. Global Passenger EV Market Outlook

• 1.1. Global Passenger Vehicle Electrification Rate Outlook
• 1.2. Global Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Outlook by Region
• 1.3. Global Battery Demand Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles by Region
• 1.4. Global Electric Passenger Vehicle and Battery Demand Outlook by Region
• 1.5. Global Battery Demand for Electric Passenger Vehicles by Cathode Material

2. Global Major OEM EV Market Outlook

• 2.1. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Outlook
• 2.2. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Proportion Outlook
• 2.3. Global Major OEM Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast by Manufacturer
• 2.4. Global Major OEM Battery Demand Outlook for Electric Passenger Vehicles

3. Global Major OEM EV Market Outlook by Manufacturer

• 3.1. Tesla
• 3.2. VW(Volkswagen)
• 3.3. HKMC(Hyundai-Kia)
• 3.4. Toyota
• 3.5. R-N-M(Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance)
• 3.6. Stellantis
• 3.7. Ford
• 3.8. GM
• 3.9. BMW
• 3.10. Mercedes-Benz
• 3.11. Geely
• 3.12. Honda
• 3.13. BYD