銅箔的技術趨勢與市場預測(～2035年)

執行摘要

在電動車中，電池是最關鍵的部件之一，決定著汽車的性能、成本和安全性。電池的四個主要組成部分是正極、負極、電解液和隔膜。為了使這四個主要部件正常工作，正極和負極都必須使用集流體。銅箔通常用作負極的集流體。

電池目前用於電動車、儲能系統 (ESS) 和 IT 應用。預計從 2021 年到 2035 年，電動車市場的複合年增長率將達到 19%，從而推動整個電池市場的發展。預計銅箔市場也將與電池市場同步成長。 2021年銅箔需求量約21萬噸，預計2035年將達到176萬噸，年複合成長率為15%。預計到2035年，電動車對銅箔的需求量將達到約138萬噸，約佔總需求量的77%。因此，未來儲能系統（ESS）對銅箔的需求量也可能會增加。

銅箔的T值是從銷售價格中減去材料成本（倫敦金屬交易所（LME）銅價）計算得出的。 T值會根據供需關係不斷波動。據業內人士採訪，2024年6微米寬銅箔的T值為4.3美元/公斤。該價格由激烈的市場競爭決定。一旦2025年下半年供需平衡恢復，預計T值將維持在6美元/公斤左右。基於此假設，預計到2035年，銅箔市場規模將大幅成長至267億美元。

受區域管制和區域集團形成的影響，預計中國電動車和儲能系統（ESS）的銅箔需求將從2021年的50%以上下降至2035年的44%。同時，預計北美和歐洲將透過擴大其國內電池產能引領銅箔需求。

截至2021年，中國佔全球銅箔產量的72%，其次是韓國、馬來西亞和其他地區，佔23%。然而，從2025年起，預計歐洲和美國對銅箔的需求將會成長，預計這些地區的產能將持續擴張。

在供需方面，北美將繼續面臨供應短缺，因此預計將從其他地區尋求供應或進行本地投資。韓國和日本現有的銅箔公司正計劃擴大在其他地區的產能，例如歐洲、美國和馬來西亞。預計投資時機將根據當前市場情況靈活調整。全球電池製造商目前與一兩家銅箔合作夥伴合作，並正在不斷尋求增加合作夥伴數量。由於需要擺脫低成本和技術競爭激烈的中國市場，以及需要擺脫供應鏈的束縛，銅箔製造商正尋求與全球電池製造商緊密合作。此類合作可能因當地法規和品質要求而異。

銅箔約佔電池單元成本的5%。雖然銅箔製造難度適中，但需要大量投資和技術專長，因此銅箔市場是一個由賣方主導的市場。

電解銅箔是市場上占主導地位的銅箔，其生產方法是將銅材料溶解在硫酸銅溶液中，然後使用電解機電解沉積銅。韓國和中國電池製造商對銅箔採購規格的要求相似。銅箔規格趨勢表明，市場對更薄、更寬、更長的銅箔卷的需求不斷增長。鑑於銅箔的成本結構，銅箔產業的競爭力取決於勞動成本、電力成本和折舊成本。馬來西亞等東南亞地區由於勞動力和電力成本較低、初期良率相對較高以及銅箔製造技術的標準化和穩定性較高，提供了良好的投資機會。銅箔產品可依機械性能、厚度和寬度進行分類。近年來，電池製造商往往要求銅箔的抗拉強度超過50 kgf/mm²。隨著SiOx/SiC等新型負極活性材料的日益普及，銅箔的物理性能和表面處理要求也發生了變化。本報告對全球銅箔市場進行了調查和分析，提供了有關銅箔技術、電動車和電池市場前景、需求和市場規模的資訊。

目錄

摘要整理

用語

第1部分

• 銅箔技術
• LIB銅箔的理解
• 電池材料的成本結構
• 銅箔的定義與分類
• 銅箔技術目錄
• 銅箔的規格
• 銅箔製造 - 溶解流程
• 銅箔製造 - 鍍金流程
• 銅箔製造 - 切斷流程
• 銅箔製造 - 生產流通量
  • 銅箔用語(生產能力，收穫率)
• 主要電池製造商電池技術藍圖(高級/入門級)
  • 銅箔製造 - 桶，相關廠商
  • 銅箔產品 - 主要用途與分類
  • 銅箔產品的變化和趨勢
  • 銅箔的專利趨勢:各國/各企業
  • 銅箔的專利趨勢:各技術

第2部分

• EV市場
• 全球EV市場預測(小客車/商用車)
• 全球EV市場預測(小客車:各地區/各年度)
• 各地區EV市場成長率(小客車，～2035年)
• 全球EV市場預測(商用車:各地區/各年度)
• 電池市場
  • 電池市場:各用途(～2035年)
  • 電池市場:各地區(～2035年)
  • 預測:搭乘用EV各類型(～2035年)
• 電池生產能力
  • 生產能力:製造各地區(～2035年)
  • 生產能力:各主要企業(～2035年)
  • 全球電池需求/支援平衡(～2035年)

第3部分

• 銅箔市場
• 銅箔需求計算Logic
• 銅箔使用:各用途(～2035年)
• 銅箔需求:各用途(～2035年)
• 全球銅箔的市場規模
• 銅箔需求:各地區
• 銅箔生產能力
  • 銅箔生產能力:各企業(～2035年)
  • 銅箔生產能力:各地區(～2035年)
  • 銅箔供需平衡:各地區(～2035年)
  • 銅箔的價格預測
  • 銅箔供應鏈(2024年時刻的主要供應商)

第4部分

• 環保法規和替代材料的影響
• 複合銅箔
• 美國的IRA的影響
• CRMA的影響
• 投資網站
• 下一代電池的影響
  • 1. 全固體電池
  • 2. 鈉離子電池

第5部分

• 主要企業
• *過去3年的銷售額/營業利潤
  • 1. SK Nexilis
  • 2. Doosan Solus
  • 3. Lotte Energy Materials
  • 4. Korea Zinc
  • 5. Nippon Denkai
  • 6. Wason
  • 7. Nuo De
  • 8. Jiayuan Technology
  • 9. Zhajiang Defu
  • 10. Chang Chun Group
  • 11. Taesung

Executive Summary

In electric vehicles, battery is one of the most critical components which determine the performance, cost, and safety of vehicle. The 4 major components in battery is cathode, anode, electrolyte, and separator. In order for these 4 major components to properly do their jobs, the use of current collector for both cathode and anode is necessary. For anode, copper foil is generally used as a current collector.

Battery is currently used for electric vehicles, energy storage system (ESS), and IT applications. If we look at the EV market, it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19% from 2021 and 2035, leading the entire battery market. In accordance with the growth of battery market, the copper foil market is also expected to grow. Demand for copper foil in 2021 was approx. 210k ton and is expected to continuously grow at a CAGR of 15% to 1.76 million ton by 2035. Copper foil demand for electric vehicles in 2035 is expected to be around 1.38 million ton, taking up about 77% of the entire demand. Along with this, ESS would also demand more copper foil in future.

In case of copper foil, T value is defined a value by subtracting material costs (copper price, based on LME) from the selling price. T value continuously fluctuates depending on supply/demand. In 2024, the T value for 6 micron, wide-width copper foil was found to be 4.3 $/kg from our interviews with the industry players. It is the price formed from fierce competitions in the market. From the latter half of 2025, it is expected that T value would be maintained at around 6$/kg when supply/demand balance would be made. Based on this assumption, the copper foil market is expected to significantly grow to US$26.7 billion in 2035.

Due to different regulations in regions and regional block formation, China's copper foil demand for electric vehicles and ESS is expected to drop to 44% in 2035 from over 50% in 2021. On the other hand, North America and Europe are expected to lead copper foil demand by expanding their local battery capacity.

As of 2021, China took up a large portion (72%) of global copper foil production, while Korea, Malysia, and other regions accounted for 23%. However, after 2025, there would be needs for copper foil from Europe and the US where continuous capacity ramp-up is expected.

In terms of supply/demand balance, North America would continuously experience a shortage in the region, and in order to address the shortage, it is forecasted to receive supply from other regions or make local investment in the region. The existing copper foil companies in Korea and Japan have their capacity expansion plans in Europe, the US, and other regions such as Malaysia. Depending on the current market situations, their investment timing would change flexibly, though. Global battery makers are currently working on cooperation with 1 or 2 copper foil partners and trying to continuously increasing the number of partners they are working with. Following the needs to escape from the Chinese market and supply chain, where competitions for low cost and technology are fierce, copper foil makers have been trying to work closely with global battery manufacturers. Their cooperation may differ and vary depending on local regulations and quality requirements.

Copper foil takes up approx. 5% of battery cell cost. The level of difficulty in manufacturing copper foil is medium, but as it requires quite a lot of investment and technical prowess, the copper foil market is regarded as market where sellers have the whip hand over buyers.

Copper foil in the market is mostly electrolytic copper foil made by dissolving copper materials into copper sulfate solution and electrodepositing copper in the solution by using electrolysis machine. The purchase specifications of copper foil required by Korean and Chinse battery makers are similar to each other. If we look at the trend in copper foil specifications, it is required to be thinner, wider, and longer in rolls. Based on the cost structure of copper foil, competitiveness in copper foil business can be determined by labor cost, electric charges, and depreciation cost. Countries in the Southeast Asian region such as Malaysia, of which labor cost and electricity charges are lower than others, are regarded as places where investment for copper foil business would be lucrative as it has become relatively easy to secure the yield at the initial stages and the copper foil manufacturing technology has gone through standardization and stabilization. The copper foil product group can be categorized by mechanical property, thickness and width. Recently, battery makers tend to require copper foil of which tensile strength is higher than 50 kgf/mm2. With the increasing adoption of new anode active materials such as SiOx/SiC, there have been requirements on changes in physical properties of copper foil and surface treatment.

Copper foil patents are mostly registered in China, followed by Japan, Taiwan, and the US. The Korean, Japanese, and Chinese companies take a leading role in patent application. If we look at the patents related to copper foil manufacturing, patents about adjusting physical properties of copper foil by changing additives or controlling the quantity of additives during the process are prevalent. Copper foil manufacturers are mostly Chinese, Korean, and Japanese. SK Nexilis and Lotter Energy Materials are increasing their production capacity in Malaysia first and considering possible capacity ramp-up in Europe and the US. Chinse copper foil companies are trying to secure their production capacity and customers in other regions than China based on their established competitiveness.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Terminology

Part-1

• Copper Foil Technology
• Understanding of LIB Copper Foil
• Cost Structure of Battery Materials
• Definition and Categorization of Copper Foil
• Copper Foil Technology Indexes
• Copper Foil Specifications
• Copper Foil Manufacturing - Dissolving process
• Copper Foil Manufacturing - Plating process
• Copper Foil Manufacturing -Slitting process
• Copper Foil Manufacturing - Production flow
  • Copper Foil Terminology (Capacity, Yield)
• Major Battery Makers' Battery Technology Roadmap (Premium / Entry-level)
  • Copper Foil Manufacturing - Drum and related manufacturers
  • Copper Foil Products - Major Purposes and Categorization
  • Changes and Trend in Copper Foil Products
  • Copper Foil Patent Trend (By country / By Company)
  • Copper Foil Patent Trend (By Technology)

Part-2

• EV Market
• Global EV Market Outlook (Passenger vehicle / Commercial vehicle)
• Global EV Market Outlook (Passenger vehicle - By Region / By year)
• Global EV Market Growth by Region (Passenger vehicle, ~'35)
• Global EV Market Outlook (Commercial vehicle - By Region / By year)
• Battery Market
  • Battery Market by Application (~'35)
  • Battery Market by Region (~'35)
  • Outlook by Passenger EV Type (~'35)
• Batrery Capacity
  • Capacity by Manufacturing Region (~'35)
  • Capacity by Major Companies (~'35)
  • Global Battery Demand / Support Balance (~'35)

Part-3

• Copper Foil Market
• Copper Foil Demand Calculation Logic
• Copper Foil Usage by Application (~'35, ton/GWh)
• Copper Foil Demand by Application (~'35, ton/GWh)
• Global Copper Foil Market Size (~'35, Bil. USD)
• Copper Foil Demand by Region (~'35, 10k ton)
• Copper Foil Capacity
  • Copper Foil Capacity by Company (~'35, 10k ton)
  • Copper Foil Capacity by Region (~'35, 10k ton)
  • Copper Foil Demand / Supply Balance by Region (~'35)
  • Copper Foil Price Outlook ('13~'35, $/kg, T-value-based)
  • Copper Foil Supply Chain (Main Suppliers as of 2024)

Part-4

• Influences from Environmental Regulations and Alternative Materials
• Composite Copper Foil
• Influences from the US IRA
• Influences from the CRMA
• Investment Site
• Influences from Next-Gen Battery
  • 1. All-Solid-State Battery
  • 2. Na-ion Battery

Part-5

• Major Companies
• *Past 3-Year Salas / Operating Profits
  • 1. SK Nexilis
  • 2. Doosan Solus
  • 3. Lotte Energy Materials
  • 4. Korea Zinc
  • 5. Nippon Denkai
  • 6. Wason
  • 7. Nuo De
  • 8. Jiayuan Technology
  • 9. Zhajiang Defu
  • 10. Chang Chun Group
  • 11. Taesung