![]() |
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1933146
全球交易能源市場預測至2034年:按組件、技術、應用、最終用戶和地區分類Transactive Energy Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Component, Technology, Application, End User, and By Geography |
||||||
根據 Stratistics MRC 的一項研究,預計到 2026 年,全球交易能源市場價值將達到 15.4 億美元,到 2034 年將達到 86.6 億美元,在預測期內的複合年成長率為 24.1%。
交易型能源利用數位平台、動態定價和即時訊號傳輸,實現生產者、消費者和產消者之間的自動化能源交易。它支援分散式網路中的本地能源平衡平衡、需量反應和電網最佳化。智慧電網的普及、屋頂太陽能板和能源儲存系統的興起、計量技術的進步、對高效電網管理的需求以及政府對靈活的、基於市場的能源管理的重視,都推動了交易型能源的成長。
根據美國能源局電網現代化計劃,交易型能源系統的試點部署表明,透過基於價格的自動能源調整,尖峰負載減少了 10-20%。
透過產消者實現能源民主化
生產者和消費者數量的激增正在從根本上瓦解傳統的集中式公共產業模式。這項轉變主要得益於住宅太陽能光電和儲能成本的下降,使得家庭用戶能夠從被動的終端用戶轉變為積極的市場參與企業。借助交易型能源框架,這些用戶可以在本地微電網內交易其剩餘能源,從而最佳化投資回報。這種民主化進程促進了一個更具韌性、更永續的生態系統,其中價格訊號反映了即時的本地供需情況,最終賦予終端用戶決定市場價值和電網穩定性的能力。
不成熟的監管和市場設計
許多目前的市場結構缺乏明確的法律架構來規範P2P(P2P)交易,也未能界定獨立產消者的特定權利和責任。這種不成熟導致收費系統、併網費用以及去中心化交易中的責任歸屬等方面存在不確定性。如果沒有鼓勵彈性負載管理和獎勵小規模能源貢獻的標準化規則,潛在的投資者和開發商將面臨過多的行政障礙,從而延緩向全自動交易型配電網路的轉型。
公共產業公司的新經營模式
交易型能源的興起為公共產業提供了一個絕佳的轉型機遇,使其能夠從傳統的商品經銷商轉型為「能源即服務」(EaaS)提供者。透過扮演平台營運商或配電系統協調員的角色,公共產業可以透過交易費、電網管理服務和智慧基礎設施維護等方式創造新的收入來源。這些以數位化為先導的經營模式使公共產業能夠利用現有資產,在滿足複雜平衡需求的同時,促進無縫的能源交易。透過擁抱這項轉型,現有企業能夠在去中心化的環境中保持競爭力,並提供即時數據分析和自動化需量反應等附加價值服務。
現有電力公司佔據主導地位,抵制變革。
市場面臨現有公用事業公司的重大威脅,這些公司根深蒂固地沿用傳統的集中式發電和配電模式。這些大型營業單位往往將分散式交易能源視為對其現有收入來源和長期資本投資的直接威脅。它們的抵製表現為遊說制定限制性電網連接政策、維持對產消者收取高額「退出費」以及拖延必要的數位化化升級。這種結構性慣性,加上保護現有資產的願望,會扼殺創新,並阻礙規模小規模、更靈活的交易平台達到在市場中生存所需的規模。
新冠疫情對交易型能源產業而言是一把雙面刃。起初,全球封鎖擾亂了供應鏈,並延遲了許多微電網示範計劃。然而,同時,工業需求的驟降和住宅用電需求的激增凸顯了集中式系統的脆弱性。這種轉變加速了電力產業的數位轉型,並使電網營運商意識到靈活、自動化解決方案的緊迫性。最終,疫情激發了人們對具有韌性的本地能源社區的興趣,並表明分散式交易模式對於實現能源安全現代化至關重要。
預計在預測期內,軟體平台細分市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
由於數位基礎設施對於實現即時交易至關重要,預計在預測期內,軟體平台領域將佔據最大的市場佔有率。作為交易生態系統的基礎,這些平台整合了區塊鏈、人工智慧和物聯網技術,以管理複雜的競標週期並確保安全的資料交換。對能夠同時協調數千個分散式資產的先進能源管理系統的需求,使得軟體投資成為公共產業和私人開發商的首要任務。
預計在預測期內,商業領域的複合年成長率將最高。
預計在預測期內,商業領域將呈現最高的成長率,因為企業正積極尋求降低營運成本並實現環境、社會和治理 (ESG) 目標。包括辦公大樓和零售園區在內的商業房地產擁有足夠的規模和資金來部署先進的交易型微電網,從而最佳化多個單元的能源使用。透過參與需量反應和跨區域交易,這些機構可以將屋頂和停車場轉化為收入來源。商業場所電動車充電樁的快速普及也需要交易型能源特有的動態負載平衡功能。
預計北美將在預測期內保持最大的市場佔有率,這得益於美國的先發優勢。政府的大力支持,例如電網現代化舉措,以及蓬勃發展的科技主導能源Start-Ups生態系統,使該地區處於領先地位。智慧電錶的高普及率以及成熟的監管環境(尤其是在加州和紐約州等州)對先導計畫的支持,為智慧電錶的大規模應用提供了有利條件。
在預測期內,受歐盟雄心勃勃的「Fit for 55」一攬子計畫和「清潔能源惠及歐洲公民」立法框架的推動,歐洲地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。這些政策要求振興能源社區,並在分散層面整合再生能源來源。在社區所有權能源計劃文化轉變和電價上漲的推動下,歐洲消費者和企業正迅速採用P2P交易平台。德國、荷蘭和英國等國透過簡化監管,促進分散式市場參與,主導此一成長。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Transactive Energy Market is accounted for $1.54 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $8.66 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 24.1% during the forecast period. The transactive energy enables automated energy transactions between producers, consumers, and prosumers using digital platforms, dynamic pricing, and real-time signals. It supports localized energy balancing, demand response, and grid optimization across distributed networks. Growth is fueled by the installation of smart grids, more rooftop solar panels and energy storage systems, better metering technology, the need for efficient grid management, and government interest in flexible energy management that relies on market forces.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy Grid Modernization Program, pilot transactive energy systems demonstrated 10-20% peak load reduction through automated price-based energy coordination.
Democratization of energy through prosumers
The surge in "prosumers" consumers who both produce and consume energy is fundamentally dismantling the traditional centralized utility model. This shift is primarily driven by the falling costs of residential solar PV and battery storage, allowing households to transition from passive endpoints to active market participants. By leveraging transactive energy frameworks, these individuals can trade surplus power within local microgrids, optimizing their return on investment. This democratization fosters a more resilient and self-sustaining ecosystem where price signals reflect real-time local supply and demand, ultimately empowering end-users to dictate market value and grid stability.
Immature regulatory & market designs
Most current market structures lack the necessary legal clarity to govern peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions or to define the specific rights and responsibilities of independent prosumers. This immaturity creates uncertainty regarding tariff structures, grid access fees, and liability in decentralized exchanges. Without standardized rules that incentivize flexible load management and reward small-scale energy contributions, potential investors and developers face prohibitive administrative hurdles that slow the transition toward a fully automated and transactive distribution network.
New business models for utilities
The rise of transactive energy presents utilities with a vital opportunity to pivot from traditional commodity sellers to "Energy-as-a-Service" (EaaS) providers. By acting as platform operators or distribution system orchestrators, utilities can generate new revenue streams through transaction fees, grid management services, and the maintenance of smart infrastructure. These digital-first business models enable utilities to leverage their existing assets to facilitate seamless energy trading while managing complex balancing requirements. Embracing this shift allows legacy players to stay relevant in a decentralized landscape, offering value-added services like real-time data analytics and automated demand response.
Dominance of incumbent utilities resisting change
The market faces a formidable threat from incumbent utilities that remain deeply entrenched in the traditional centralized generation and distribution model. These large-scale entities often view decentralized transactive energy as a direct threat to their existing revenue streams and long-term capital investments. Resistance can manifest through lobbying for restrictive grid-access policies, maintaining high "exit fees" for prosumers, or delaying the necessary digital upgrades to the distribution grid. This structural inertia, combined with a protective stance over legacy assets, can stifle innovation and prevent smaller, more agile transactive platforms from achieving the scale required for market viability.
The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a double-edged sword for the transactive energy sector. Initially, global lockdowns disrupted supply chains and delayed numerous microgrid pilot projects. However, the period also highlighted the vulnerability of centralized systems as industrial demand plummeted and residential loads surged. This shift accelerated the digital transformation of the power sector, as grid operators recognized the urgent need for flexible, automated solutions. The pandemic ultimately catalyzed interest in resilient, local energy communities, proving that decentralized transactive models are essential for modernizing energy security.
The software & platforms segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The software & platforms segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period due to the critical role of digital infrastructure in enabling real-time transactions. As the backbone of the transactive ecosystem, these platforms integrate blockchain, AI, and IoT to manage complex bid-offer cycles and ensure secure data exchange. The necessity for advanced energy management systems that can orchestrate thousands of distributed assets simultaneously makes software investment a top priority for both utilities and private developers.
The commercial segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the commercial segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate as businesses aggressively seek to lower operational costs and meet ESG targets. Commercial entities, including office complexes and retail parks, possess the scale and capital to implement sophisticated transactive microgrids that optimize energy usage across multiple units. By participating in demand response and local trading, these organizations can turn their rooftops and parking lots into profit centers. The rapid adoption of EV charging fleets within commercial hubs also necessitates the dynamic load-balancing capabilities unique to transactive energy.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, anchored by early-mover advantages in the United States. Strong government support through initiatives like the Grid Modernization Initiative and a robust ecosystem of tech-driven energy startups have positioned the region at the forefront. The high penetration of smart meters and a mature regulatory appetite for pilot projects, particularly in states like California and New York, provide fertile ground for large-scale deployments.
Over the forecast period, the Europe region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, propelled by the European Union's ambitious "Fit for 55" package and the Clean Energy for all Europeans legislative framework. These policies mandate the empowerment of energy communities and the integration of renewable sources at a granular level. With a strong cultural shift toward community-owned energy projects and high electricity prices, European consumers and businesses are rapidly adopting P2P trading platforms. Countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK are leading this growth by streamlining regulations to allow decentralized market participation.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Transactive Energy Market include Siemens AG, IBM Corporation, Power Ledger, LO3 Energy, Energy Web Foundation, Electron, GridPlus, Grid Singularity, Autogrid Systems, Opus One Solutions, Drift Marketplace, Enbala, Centrica plc, Tata Power, Schneider Electric, and Accenture plc.
In December 2025, Centrica plc announced its Climate Transition Plan, committing to net-zero by 2040 and exploring decentralized energy trading models to empower customers in transactive energy ecosystems.
In December 2025, IBM Corporation released its Utilities Industry Insights, highlighting AI-driven smart grid orchestration to support transactive energy models and optimize distributed energy resource participation.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.