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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1933142
全球直接空氣捕集市場預測至2034年:依技術類型、捕集能力、能源來源、部署模式、經營模式、應用、最終用戶及地區分類Direct Air Capture Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Technology Type, Capture Capacity, Energy Source, Deployment Model, Business Model, Application, End User, and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的一項研究,預計到 2026 年,全球直接空氣捕獲市場價值將達到 3.8 億美元,到 2034 年將達到 177.7 億美元,在預測期內的複合年成長率將達到 61.2%。
直接空氣捕集技術著重於利用化學吸收劑或過濾器直接從大氣中去除二氧化碳,以便後續儲存或利用。這有助於實現應對氣候變遷的負排放策略。其成長動力來自企業淨零排放承諾、特定產業的有限排放措施、支持性氣候政策、碳清除信用額度以及降低能源強度和營運成本的技術進步。
強化全球氣候政策與碳定價機制
世界各國政府正在實施積極的氣候框架,強制要求大幅減少大氣中的二氧化碳含量,例如歐洲綠色交易和美國加強版的45Q稅額扣抵。這些政策催生了合規市場和財政獎勵,使直接空氣捕獲(DAC)等碳移除技術具備了商業性可行性。設定具有約束力的淨零排放目標和日益成熟的自願性碳市場,為推動DAC基礎設施的大規模投資和部署提供了長期的監管確定性和必要的收入來源。
高能耗和營運成本
直接空氣捕獲(DAC)市場面臨的主要限制因素是龐大的能源需求以及由此帶來的每噸二氧化碳捕獲成本高昂。捕獲分散在大氣中的二氧化碳在動態上極具挑戰性,需要大量的熱能或電能輸入,這影響了該技術的經濟和環境生命週期。儘管技術創新和規模化生產正在降低成本,但目前的資本支出和營運成本限制了其廣泛應用。持續的政策支援、技術突破以及低成本可再生能源的取得對於DAC實現長期競爭力至關重要。
碳利用和循環經濟模式的創新
除了地質儲存之外,將捕獲的二氧化碳轉化為高價值產品也蘊藏著巨大的機遇,進而建構循環碳經濟。新興用途包括合成燃料、建材用碳酸鹽、化學原料,甚至應用於食品飲料加工領域。這條途徑不僅能提供額外的收入來源以抵銷捕獲成本,還能減少對化石碳源的依賴。碳移除即服務(CRaaS)的開發以及與尋求高品質碳移除額度的企業簽訂長期承購協議,進一步拓展了市場的商業性潛力。
技術競爭和擴充性挑戰
直接空氣捕獲(DAC)市場面臨來自其他碳移除和減排策略的競爭,包括基於自然的解決方案(植樹造林)、點源碳捕獲以及新興的負排放技術。人們普遍認為DAC成本較高,且資源分配方面存在爭議,這些因素可能會分散投資和政策關注。此外,要實現十億噸級的碳移除,需要大規模擴大規模,這給供應鏈、許可核准和社會接受度帶來了巨大挑戰,可能導致計劃延期和成本增加。
新冠疫情初期,由於物流和資金籌措方面的挑戰,供應鏈受到衝擊,先導計畫的推進也因此延緩。然而,這場危機也凸顯了全球體系的脆弱性,並加速了各國政府和企業建構永續永續經濟的腳步。許多地區實施的復甦計畫已開始為包括碳管理在內的綠色技術分配資金。因此,疫情期間加強了圍繞創新氣候解決方案的長期政策和投資框架,例如發展援助委員會(DAC),為疫情後加速成長奠定了基礎。
預計在預測期內,液態溶劑型直接空氣固化劑(DAC)細分市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
預計液態溶劑型直接空氣固化(DAC)技術將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這項優勢源自於其技術的成熟性、領先大型計劃中的成熟應用以及在連續、大批量運作中展現出的卓越效能。持續進行的溶劑再生效率和腐蝕抑制方面的研發工作進一步提升了其經濟效益,使其成為新興工業規模中心以及尋求綜合碳管理解決方案的特定排放的首選技術。
預計在預測期內,碳清除即服務(CRaaS)細分市場將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,碳移除即服務 (CRaaS)經營模式預計將實現最高成長率。此模式降低了企業和政府取得碳移除信用額度的門檻,無需擁有和營運複雜的直接空氣污染 (DAC) 基礎設施。 CRaaS 提供可預測的價格、檢驗的碳計量以及可擴展的移除量,完美契合了科技公司、金融機構和消費品牌日益成長的需求,這些公司和品牌都在尋求可靠且永續的碳抵消方案,以實現其雄心勃勃的永續性目標。
預計北美將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率。這一主導地位得益於美國能源局的大量聯邦資金支持、增強的45Q稅額扣抵以及加拿大雄心勃勃的氣候舉措。 Carbon Engineering和World Thermostat等先驅企業的存在,以及與能源產業(在提高石油採收率和合成燃料應用方面)的緊密合作,共同建構了一個有利於直接空氣噴射(DAC)技術商業化和早期規模化生產的強大生態系統。
預計在預測期內,歐洲地區的複合年成長率將最高。這一快速成長得益於歐盟雄心勃勃的「Fit for 55」一攬子計畫和創新基金,這些計畫和基金明確支持碳移除技術。嚴格的排放目標、歐盟排放交易體系(EU ETS)下的高碳價格,以及政府對冰島儲存等計劃的積極支持,都為投資創造了肥沃的土壤。歐洲對北海地質封存的重視及其在循環碳經濟領域的領先地位,進一步推動了市場擴張。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Direct Air Capture (DAC) Market is accounted for $0.38 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $17.77 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 61.2% during the forecast period. The direct air capture focuses on technologies that remove carbon dioxide directly from ambient air using chemical sorbents or filters, followed by storage or utilization. It supports negative emissions strategies for climate mitigation. Growth is driven by corporate net-zero commitments, limited abatement options in certain sectors, climate policy support, carbon removal credits, and technological improvements that reduce energy intensity and operating costs.
Stringent Global Climate Policies and Carbon Pricing Mechanisms
Governments worldwide are implementing aggressive climate frameworks, such as the European Green Deal and enhanced 45Q tax credits in the United States, which mandate substantial reductions in atmospheric CO2. These policies create compliance markets and financial incentives, making carbon removal technologies like DAC commercially viable. The establishment of binding net-zero targets and the maturation of voluntary carbon markets are providing the long-term regulatory certainty and revenue streams necessary to catalyze large-scale investment and deployment of DAC infrastructure.
High Energy Consumption and Operational Costs
The primary constraint facing the DAC market is its substantial energy requirement and consequent high cost per ton of CO2 captured. The thermodynamic challenge of capturing diffuse atmospheric CO2 necessitates significant thermal or electrical energy inputs, which impact both the economic and environmental lifecycle of the technology. While costs are decreasing with innovation and scale, the current capital and operational expenditures limit widespread adoption, making DAC dependent on continued policy support, technological breakthroughs, and access to low-cost renewable energy to achieve long-term competitiveness.
Innovation in Carbon Utilization and Circular Economy Models
Beyond geological storage, a major opportunity lies in transforming captured CO2 into valuable products, creating a circular carbon economy. Emerging applications include the production of synthetic fuels, carbonates for building materials, chemical feedstocks, and even food and beverage processing. This utilization pathway not only provides an additional revenue stream to offset capture costs but also reduces dependency on fossil-based carbon sources. The development of Carbon Removal as a Service (CRaaS) and long-term offtake agreements with corporations seeking high-quality removal credits further expands the market's commercial potential.
Technological Competition and Scalability Challenges
The DAC market faces competition from other carbon removal and avoidance strategies, such as nature-based solutions (afforestation), point-source carbon capture, and emerging negative emission technologies. Perceived cost disadvantages and debates over resource allocation could divert investment and policy focus. Furthermore, the monumental scale-up required to achieve gigaton-level removal poses significant challenges in supply chains, permitting, and social license to operate, risking project delays and increased costs.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted supply chains and delayed pilot project deployments due to logistical and financing challenges. However, the crisis also underscored the vulnerability of global systems and accelerated governmental and corporate focus on building resilient, sustainable economies. Recovery packages in many regions began earmarking funds for green technologies, including carbon management. Consequently, the pandemic period strengthened the long-term policy and investment narrative around innovative climate solutions like DAC, positioning it for accelerated post-pandemic growth.
The Liquid Solvent-Based DAC segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Liquid Solvent-Based DAC segment is expected to account for the largest market share. This dominance is attributed to its technological maturity, having been deployed in earlier large-scale projects, and its proven effectiveness in continuous, high-capacity operations. Ongoing R&D focused on solvent regeneration efficiency and corrosion reduction continues to enhance its economic profile, making it the preferred choice for initial industrial-scale hubs and partnerships with point-source emitters seeking integrated carbon management solutions.
The Carbon Removal as a Service (CRaaS) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the Carbon Removal as a Service (CRaaS) business model segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate. This model lowers the entry barrier for corporations and governments wishing to procure carbon removal credits without owning and operating complex DAC infrastructure. It offers predictable pricing, verified carbon accounting, and scalable removal volumes, aligning perfectly with the growing demand from technology firms, financial institutions, and consumer brands for high-integrity, durable carbon offsets to meet ambitious sustainability goals.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share. This leadership is underpinned by substantial federal funding through the US Department of Energy, enhanced 45Q tax credits, and ambitious climate initiatives in Canada. The presence of pioneering companies like Carbon Engineering and Global Thermostat, coupled with strong partnerships with the energy sector for utilization in enhanced oil recovery and synthetic fuels, creates a robust ecosystem for commercialization and early scaling of DAC technology.
Over the forecast period, the Europe region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR. This rapid growth is driven by the European Union's ambitious "Fit for 55" package and the innovation fund, which explicitly support carbon removal technologies. Stringent emission reduction targets, a high carbon price under the EU ETS, and active government backing for projects like those by Climeworks in Iceland are creating a fertile ground for investment. Europe's focus on geological storage in the North Sea and its leadership in the circular carbon economy further accelerate market expansion.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Direct Air Capture Market include Climeworks, Carbon Engineering, Global Thermostat, Aker Carbon Capture, Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, Carbfix, Heirloom Carbon Technologies, Mission Zero Technologies, CarbonCure, Skytree, Prometheus Climate, Soletair Power, CarbonBuilt, HighHopes, and Novomer.
In March 2024, Climeworks announced the commencement of operations for its next-generation DAC plant, "Mammoth," in Iceland, designed to capture 36,000 tons of CO2 annually, marking a significant step in multi-megaton scale-up.
In February 2024, Carbon Engineering and its partners finalized investment for the first full-scale DAC facility in the US Southwest, integrated with secure geological storage, supported by major offtake agreements from corporate buyers.
In January 2024, Aker Carbon Capture was awarded a front-end engineering design (FEED) study for a large-scale DAC hub in Norway, highlighting the growing integration of DAC into European industrial decarbonization strategies.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.