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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1803027
全球農林業碳補償市場預測(至 2032 年):按類型、碳補償類型、計劃規模、認證標準、技術、最終用戶和地區進行分析Agroforestry Carbon Offset Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Type, Carbon Offset Type, Project Size & Scale, Certification Standard, Technology, End User and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,全球農林業碳補償市場預計在 2025 年達到 3.5703 億美元,到 2032 年將達到 7.6017 億美元,預測期內的複合年成長率為 11.4%。
農林複合系統碳補償是指透過將樹木與作物和牲畜結合的綜合土地利用實踐,實現溫室氣體排放的可量化減排。這些系統增強了生質能和土壤的碳封存,同時促進了生物多樣性和永續農業。農林複合系統計劃產生的經認證的碳補償可在碳市場上交易,帶來環境和經濟效益。這種方法透過捕獲大氣中的二氧化碳來支持氣候變遷減緩,並透過提高土地生產力和生態系統復原力促進農村發展。
根據《水、空氣與土壤污染》雜誌發表的報導,全球約有 12 億人在約 10 億公頃土地上實施農林業系統,其中印度約有 2,532 萬公頃土地實行農林業。
對可靠、檢驗的碳權額的需求不斷成長
農林複合計劃不僅吸收碳排放,還能帶來土壤修復、生物多樣性保護和當地社區永續生計等協同效益,因此對尋求ESG合規性的投資者和企業極具吸引力。隨著自願和合規碳市場日趨成熟,相關人員更加重視那些以透明方法論、第三方檢驗和可衡量生態學成果為支撐的碳權。這種對可靠且持續的碳權額度日益成長的偏好,預計將成為農林複合碳補償市場擴張的關鍵驅動力。
缺乏統一、科學健全的MRV系統
目前農林業計劃的MRV方法因地區而異,難以確保碳儲存效益和社會影響的一致性。資源和成本限制阻礙了許多小農戶主導的計劃採用衛星監測和基於人工智慧的碳模型等先進技術。這種差異性不僅阻礙了大型機構投資者的積極性,還造成了定價不確定性,因為不同地區對碳抵消品質的認知存在差異,可能導致市場碎片化和投資者信心下降。
聚合平台和數位合作社的成長
由區塊鏈技術、基於物聯網的監控和行動優先解決方案支援的聚合模型有助於標準化資料收集、提高透明度並簡化信用驗證。數位合作社為農民提供了更便利的市場准入,實現了集體談判,並降低了計劃檢驗和認證的交易成本。此外,創新的金融科技整合正開始將碳權與去中心化金融機會聯繫起來,從而提高了流動性並擴大了投資者的參與度。這些可擴展的數位生態系統不僅解決了計劃碎片化的挑戰,還使農村社區能夠更廣泛地融入碳經濟。
土地權屬不明確、政治不穩定、政策不一致
政治不穩定和政策轉變進一步加劇了不確定性,因為政權更迭可能導致碳稅制度、抵銷額確認框架和獎勵機制的變化。此類風險會阻礙投資者做出長期資本承諾,並擾亂當地計劃的連續性。此外,各國在監管自願和合規市場方面的政策不一致,也加劇了全球交易平台上信用額度合格的不確定性。除非引入監管透明度和管治改革,否則這些因素將對市場的穩定擴張構成重大威脅。
新冠疫情對農林業碳補償市場產生了雙重影響。最初,全球封鎖導致計劃實施中斷,減少了實地監測的機會,推遲了檢驗時間,並暫時停止了碳排放額度的產生。同時,隨著各國政府和企業重新評估其在復甦戰略中的環境承諾,疫情也提高了全球對氣候適應力和永續發展的認知。許多企業買家更加關注自願碳市場,將其作為更廣泛的永續性框架的一部分,這為農林業主導創造了機會。
預計預測期內林牧業將佔最大佔有率
預計在預測期內,林牧複合系統將佔據最大的市場佔有率,因為該模式不僅能增強碳封存能力,還能改善土壤肥力、控制水土流失,並為農民提供多樣化的收入來源。透過最佳化土地利用效率和提高牲畜生產力,林牧複合系統因其在應對氣候變遷和社會經濟效益方面的雙重優勢而日益受到認可。林牧複合系統在不同地區的可擴展性使其成為計劃開發商和投資者的首選。
預計預測期內自願性碳補償部分將以最高複合年成長率成長
預計自願碳補償領域將在預測期內實現最高成長率,這得益於私營部門對碳中和承諾以及消費者主導的環境課責的激增。企業擴大透過自願補償來補充其內部排放,以實現雄心勃勃的淨零目標。隨著全球企業ESG揭露框架的加強,自願性碳補償領域已成為技術創新的溫床,提供由數位可追溯工具支持的、價格高昂的基於自然的信用額度。
由於強力的政策支持、先進的碳排放交易機制以及永續農業實踐的廣泛採用,預計北美將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率。美國和加拿大擁有健全的框架來鼓勵基於自然的碳補償計劃,企業也積極投資於土地修復和造林工作。此外,成熟的MRV技術和資金籌措生態系統使北美在產生可靠的碳補償方面處於領先地位。
由於農林複合系統的應用日益普及以及氣候融資流入的不斷增加,預計亞太地區在預測期內的複合年成長率最高。印度、印尼和越南等國家正在實施大規模的重新造林和農林複合項目,以履行其國家氣候變遷承諾。國際碳補償買家對亞太地區經濟高效、規模龐大的碳匯潛力的興趣日益濃厚,這加速了計劃開發,並推動該地區在整個預測期內保持兩位數的成長軌跡。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Agroforestry Carbon Offset Market is accounted for $357.03 million in 2025 and is expected to reach $760.17 million by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 11.4% during the forecast period. Agroforestry carbon offset are the quantifiable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions achieved through integrated land-use practices that combine trees with crops or livestock. These systems enhance carbon sequestration in biomass and soil while promoting biodiversity and sustainable agriculture. Verified offsets generated from agroforestry projects can be traded in carbon markets, offering environmental and economic benefits. This approach supports climate mitigation by capturing atmospheric CO2 and contributes to rural development through improved land productivity and ecosystem resilience.
According to article published in Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, agroforestry systems are practiced globally by more than 1.2 billion people across approximately 1 billion hectares of land, with India contributing around 25.32 million hectares under agroforestry.
Growing demand for credible and verifiable carbon credits
Agroforestry projects not only sequester carbon but also deliver co-benefits such as soil restoration, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable livelihoods for local communities, making them more attractive to investors and corporations seeking robust ESG compliance. As voluntary and compliance carbon markets mature, stakeholders are placing greater emphasis on credits backed by transparent methodologies, third-party verifications, and measurable ecological outcomes. This growing preference for credible, high-integrity carbon credits is expected to be a key driver for the expansion of agroforestry carbon offset markets.
Lack of a uniform and scientifically robust MRV system
Current MRV approaches in agroforestry projects vary widely across geographies, making it difficult to ensure consistency in measuring carbon sequestration benefits and social impacts. Many smallholder-driven projects face difficulties in deploying advanced technologies like satellite monitoring or AI-based carbon modeling due to resource and cost barriers. This heterogeneity not only discourages large-scale institutional investors but also creates uncertainty in pricing, as the perceived quality of offsets differs across regions risks fragmentation and limited investor confidence.
Scaling up aggregation platforms and digital cooperatives
Aggregation models supported by blockchain technologies, IoT-based monitoring, and mobile-first solutions can help standardize data collection, enhance transparency, and simplify credit verification. Digital cooperatives give farmers easier access to marketplaces, enabling collective bargaining and reducing transaction costs for project validation and certification. Moreover, innovative fintech integrations are beginning to link carbon credits with decentralized finance opportunities, enhancing liquidity and broadening investor participation. These scalable digital ecosystems not only address challenges of project fragmentation but also unlock broader inclusion of rural communities into the carbon economy.
Lack of clear land tenure rights, political instability, and inconsistent policy
Political instability and policy shifts further increase uncertainty, as changing regimes may alter carbon taxation, offset recognition frameworks, or incentive mechanisms. These risks discourage long-term financial commitments from investors and disrupt project continuity on the ground. Furthermore, inconsistent national policies in regulating voluntary vs. compliance markets contribute to uncertainty on credit eligibility in global trading platforms. Unless regulatory clarity and governance reforms are introduced, these factors represent a significant threat to the market's stable expansion.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a dual impact on the agroforestry carbon offset market. Initially, global lockdowns led to interruptions in project implementation, reduced access to field monitoring, and slowed verification timelines, temporarily disrupting credit generation. On the other hand, the pandemic brought a surge in global awareness of climate resilience and sustainable development as governments and corporations revisited their environmental commitments in recovery strategies. Many corporate buyers increased their focus on voluntary carbon markets as part of broader sustainability frameworks, creating opportunities for agroforestry-led offsets.
The silvopasture segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The silvopasture segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period as this model enhances carbon sequestration capacity while also improving soil fertility, controlling erosion, and providing diversified income streams for farmers. By optimizing land use efficiency and improving livestock productivity, silvopasture systems are increasingly recognized for their dual capacity to generate climate and socioeconomic benefits. Its scalability across different geographies makes it a preferred choice among project developers and investors.
The voluntary carbon offsets segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the voluntary carbon offsets segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate driven by a surge in private sector commitments to carbon neutrality and consumer-driven environmental accountability. Corporations are increasingly supplementing internal emissions reductions with voluntary offsets to achieve ambitious net-zero targets. With corporate ESG disclosure frameworks tightening worldwide, the voluntary segment have become a hotbed for innovation, offering premium-priced, nature-based credits supported by digital traceability tools.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share due to strong policy support, advanced carbon trading mechanisms, and widespread adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. The United States and Canada have robust frameworks encouraging nature-based offset projects, with companies actively investing in land restoration and afforestation initiatives. Moreover established MRV technologies and access to financing ecosystems makes North America leader in generating reliable offsets.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR rising adoption of agroforestry systems, and heightened climate financing inflows. Countries such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are implementing large-scale reforestation and agroforestry programs aligned with their national climate commitments. Growing interest from international offset buyers in Asia Pacific's cost-effective, large-scale sequestration potential is accelerating project development will fuel the region's double-digit growth trajectory throughout the forecast period.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Agroforestry Carbon Offset Market include Agroforestry Systems Inc., Weyerhaeuser, Green Resources, Rainforest Alliance, EcoPlanet Bamboo, TerraCarbon LLC, ArborGen LLC, BioCarbon Partners, Ecotrust Forest Management, Forest Carbon Works, Wildlife Works Carbon, South Pole Group, Pachama, Carbon Tanzania, Sylvera, Everland, and Finite Carbon.
In April 2025, EFM announced a new fund launched in partnership with Sojitz to scale climate-smart forestry and carbon solutions in the U.S. (announced as a $200M initiative). It frames the fund as a vehicle to expand climate-smart forest investments, drive conservation outcomes and scale carbon projects.
In April 2025, TerraCarbon announced a scientific collaboration with The Nature Conservancy to improve trust and transparency in REDD+ and carbon markets. The announcement describes a joint research/collaboration program to validate methods, increase transparency and build scientific confidence in REDD+ project approaches.
In March 2025, BioCarbon Partners announced the official launch of the Kafue-Zambezi Community Forest Project (Zambia), described as a major community forest carbon initiative. The release summarized community benefits, conservation aims, and the project's role in channeling carbon revenue to local communities.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.