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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1766088
全球綠色甲醇市場:2032 年預測-按產品、材料、技術、最終用戶和地區進行分析Green Methanol Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Product (Exterior Products, Interior Products, Building Systems, Solar Products and Other Products), Material, Technology, End User and By Geography |
根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,全球綠色甲醇市場預計在 2025 年達到 29.8 億美元,到 2032 年將達到 212.5 億美元,預測期內的複合年成長率為 32.4%。
由生質能、綠色氫能和捕獲的二氧化碳等可再生資源製成的永續燃料稱為「綠色甲醇」。與化石資源製成的傳統甲醇相比,綠色甲醇是一種低碳替代燃料,可顯著減少溫室氣體排放。它可用於各種工藝,包括航運、發電、運輸以及作為化學品的原料。其清潔燃燒能力有助於向循環經濟和脫碳經濟轉型。綠色甲醇的生產採用了可再生能源技術,使其成為國際社會應對氣候變遷和減少對環境影響的關鍵。
根據國際能源總署(IEA)的數據,到2021年,交通運輸業將佔碳排放的三分之一以上。電子甲醇可以減少碳排放,並且無需改變現有基礎設施即可使用。
航運和運輸業的需求不斷成長
在國際船舶燃料排放法規日益嚴格的情況下,綠色甲醇能夠最大限度地減少二氧化碳排放,使其成為極具潛力的替代燃料。為了滿足國際海事組織 (IMO) 2030 年和 2050 年的排放目標,航運公司擴大採用綠色甲醇。綠色甲醇是運輸業卡車、巴士和混合動力汽車的更清潔替代燃料。它與現有基礎設施相容,易於轉型。綠色甲醇在各種運輸方式中的應用日益廣泛,推動了全球市場的擴張。
生產成本和資本成本高
對二氧化碳和綠色氫氣等可再生原料的需求,以及複雜的合成工藝,增加了營業成本。建立生產工廠需要在碳捕獲和電解技術上投入大量資金。可擴展性有限,新參與企業市場的企業不願承擔如此高的前期成本。此外,由於基礎設施成本,綠色甲醇比傳統燃料更昂貴。因此,成本競爭仍然是阻礙其廣泛應用的主要障礙。
規模經濟與技術創新
隨著產量的增加,單位成本將會下降,從而促進更廣泛的市場接受。技術創新將透過提高電解、二氧化碳捕獲和生質能轉化的效率來提高產量和永續性。製程最佳化和先進催化劑的使用可以提高產量並降低能耗。再生能源來源的加入進一步增強了甲醇的綠色特性。這些因素將共同推動綠色甲醇市場的商業化和全球成長。
監理支持和補貼的變化
政策不一致會阻礙長期規劃,並導致計劃核准延遲。補貼削減或取消將增加生產成本,使綠色甲醇與基於石化燃料的替代品相比缺乏競爭力。監管變化也可能導致合約取消和基礎設施建設停頓。這種不可預測性會抑制產業和最終用戶的創新和採用。綜合來看,市場信心將被削弱,政策不確定性將減緩到永續燃料的轉變。
COVID-19的影響
新冠疫情嚴重阻礙了綠色甲醇市場的發展,擾亂了製造業和供應鏈,減緩了工廠建設,並減少了航運、運輸和工業燃料等核心產業的需求。由於投資轉向醫療保健,可再生能源計劃的融資也被推遲。雖然短期需求受到抑制,但企業利用停工期推進初步試驗和可行性研究。隨著停工解除,市場恢復了成長勢頭,為疫情後的強勁成長奠定了基礎。
預計建築系統部門將成為預測期內最大的部門
受永續建築材料和能源解決方案需求的推動,建築系統領域預計將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率。綠色甲醇是一種清潔燃燒燃料,也是生產環保隔熱材料、黏合劑和被覆劑。其低碳排放也符合綠建築認證和環境法規。將綠色甲醇納入暖通空調和電力系統,可提高建築的能源效率。這種日益成長的採用將支持向淨零排放建築的轉型,從而促進市場成長。
預計預測期內太陽能光電整合部分將以最高的複合年成長率成長。
作為甲醇生產的再生能源來源,太陽能一體化領域預計將在預測期內實現最高成長率。太陽能減少了對石化燃料的依賴,最大限度地減少了碳排放,並增強了綠色甲醇的環境效益。太陽能一體化還能降低長期營運成本,使綠色甲醇更具經濟可行性。太陽能電池板和電解系統的技術進步進一步提高了生產效率。隨著各國推動脫碳,太陽能一體化甲醇工廠正成為全球能源轉型的驅動力。
預計亞太地區將在預測期內佔據最大的市場佔有率,這得益於低排放氣體燃料需求的不斷成長,尤其是在努力實現脫碳目標的航運領域。中國憑藉其大規模的產能擴張計畫和政府扶持永續能源的政策,在消費和生產方面引領該地區。印度和日本也正在透過新計畫成為主要參與者。雖然高昂的生產成本、不穩定的原料供應和基礎設施限制構成了挑戰,但國家獎勵以及碳捕獲和綠色氫能技術的進步正在加速其應用,使亞太地區成為全球綠色甲醇市場的主導者。
由於嚴格的脫碳目標和對可再生能源的大量投資,預計北美將在預測期內實現最高的複合年成長率。該地區,尤其是美國,在《通膨控制法案》(IRA)等政府支持性政策的推動下,佔據了市場佔有率的主導地位,該法案為無污染燃料生產提供稅額扣抵抵免。航運和化學工業對石化燃料永續替代品的需求不斷成長,進一步推動了這一擴張。雖然高昂的生產成本仍然是一個挑戰,但碳捕獲和綠色氫能技術的持續進步正在提高其可行性,從而創造了一個充滿活力的市場環境。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Green Methanol Market is accounted for $2.98 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $21.25 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 32.4% during the forecast period. A sustainable fuel made from renewable resources including biomass, green hydrogen, and collected carbon dioxide is called "green methanol." Green methanol provides a low-carbon substitute that drastically lowers greenhouse gas emissions in contrast to traditional methanol made from fossil sources. It is employed in many different processes, including as shipping, power generating, transportation, and as a feedstock for chemicals. It facilitates the shift to a circular and decarbonised economy because it burns cleanly. It is an essential part of international efforts to fight climate change and lessen environmental impact because its manufacture incorporates renewable energy technologies.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the transportation industry alone was responsible for over one-third of the carbon emissions in 2021; thus, finding an alternate solution is crucial. E-methanol reduces the carbon emission and can be used without making any changes to existing infrastructure.
Rising demand in maritime & transport
The minimal carbon footprint of green methanol makes it a viable substitute as international limits on naval fuel emissions tighten. It is being adopted by shipping firms more and more in order to meet the IMO 2030 and 2050 emission targets. Green methanol is a cleaner fuel alternative for trucks, buses, and hybrid cars in the transportation industry. The shift is also made easier by its compatibility with current infrastructure. Global market expansion is being accelerated by this increasing use across transportation modes.
High production and capital cost
The necessity for renewable feedstocks like CO2 and green hydrogen, as well as the intricate synthesis process, raise operating costs. Production plant establishment necessitates significant expenditures in carbon capture and electrolysis technologies. Scalability is restricted and new market participants are discouraged by these high upfront expenses. Furthermore, green methanol is more expensive than traditional fuels due to the costly infrastructure. Cost competitiveness thus continues to be a significant obstacle to broad adoption.
Scale economies & tech innovations
Costs per unit go down as production volumes rise, which promotes wider market acceptance. Technological advancements increase output and sustainability by improving conversion efficiencies in electrolysis, CO2 capture, and biomass. Optimising the process and using advanced catalysts increase yield while consuming less energy. Methanol's green profile is further enhanced by the incorporation of renewable energy sources. When combined, these elements hasten the green methanol market's commercialisation and worldwide growth.
Shifting regulatory support or subsidies
Inconsistent policies might interfere with long-term planning and cause delays in project approvals. Reducing or eliminating subsidies raises production costs, which lowers the competitiveness of green methanol relative to alternatives derived from fossil fuels. Changes in regulations may also result in contracts being cancelled or infrastructure construction being stopped. Innovation and adoption by sectors and end users are discouraged by this unpredictability. All things considered, market confidence is weakened and the shift to sustainable fuels is slowed by policy uncertainty.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly stalled the green methanol market by disrupting manufacturing and supply chains, delaying plant construction, and reducing demand from core sectors like maritime, transportation, and industrial fuels cf. reports. Investment diversion toward healthcare also deferred funding for renewable energy projects. Although short-term demand waned, companies used the pause to advance pilot and feasibility studies. As lockdowns eased, momentum returned, setting the stage for robust post-pandemic growth.
The building systems segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The building systems segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period by driving demand for sustainable construction materials and energy solutions. Green methanol serves as a clean-burning fuel and feedstock for producing eco-friendly insulation, adhesives, and coatings. Its low carbon footprint aligns with green building certifications and environmental regulations. Integration of green methanol into HVAC and power systems enhances energy efficiency in buildings. This growing adoption supports the transition toward net-zero emission structures, boosting market growth.
The solar power integration segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the solar power integration segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, due to the renewable energy source for methanol production. It reduces reliance on fossil fuels, thereby minimizing carbon emissions and enhancing the environmental benefits of green methanol. This integration also lowers operational costs over time, making green methanol more economically viable. Technological advancements in solar panels and electrolysis systems further boost production efficiency. As countries push for decarbonization, solar-integrated methanol plants gain traction in the global energy transition.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share due to increasing demand for low-emission fuels, particularly in the maritime sector seeking to meet decarbonization targets. China leads regional consumption and production with significant capacity expansion plans and supportive government policies promoting sustainable energy. India and Japan are also emerging as key players with new projects. While high production costs, inconsistent feedstock availability, and infrastructural limitations pose challenges, national incentives and advancements in carbon capture and green hydrogen technologies are accelerating adoption, positioning APAC as a dominant force in the global green methanol landscape.
Over the forecast period, the North America region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, owing to stringent decarbonization targets and significant investments in renewable energy. The region, particularly the U.S., holds a leading market share, driven by supportive government policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which offers tax credits for clean fuel production. Increasing demand from the maritime and chemical sectors, seeking sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, further propels this expansion. While high production costs remain a challenge, ongoing technological advancements in carbon capture and green hydrogen are enhancing viability and fostering a dynamic market landscape.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players profiled in the Green Methanol Market include Carbon Recycling International (CRI), Climeworks, Johnson Matthey plc, thyssenkrupp Uhde GmbH, KBR, Inc., Methanex Corporation, OCI N.V., Enerkem, BASF SE, Proman, SunGas Renewables Inc., ABEL Energy Pty Ltd, Avaada Group, Cepsa, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company, Carbon Clean Solutions and Veolia.
In March 2025, BASF and Forestal signed an Early Disclosure Agreement (EDA) to advance e-methanol production using BASF's proprietary OASE(R) blue technology for efficient CO2 removal. This partnership supports Forestal's Triskelion project in Galicia, Spain, which aims to produce 156 metric tons of e-methanol per day by capturing CO2 from turbine exhaust and combining it with renewable hydrogen. BASF will provide technical input for the project's Front End Engineering Design.
In January 2025, CRI signed a major agreement with China's Tianying Group to supply its proprietary CO2-to-methanol technology for one of the world's largest e-methanol plants in Liaoyuan, China. The agreement covers technology licensing, engineering design, proprietary equipment supply, and operational support, marking the third commercial-scale CRI plant in China and the first large-scale deployment of its technology in the country.
In March 2023, CRI completed a feasibility study for a methanol-to-jet (e-SAF) pathway at Iceland's largest planned e-fuel facility (IdunnH2, 300MW). The project aims to produce up to 70,000 tons of sustainable aviation fuel annually from 2029, combining green hydrogen from wind energy with recycled CO2.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.