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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1489424
2030年基因改造種子市場預測:全球作物類型、特徵、分銷管道和地區Transgenic Seed Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Crop Type (Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Canola and Other Crop Types), Trait, Distribution Channel and By Geography |
根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,2023 年全球基因改造種子市場規模為 269 億美元,預計在預測期內複合年成長率為 7.2%,到 2030 年將達到 917 億美元。
基因改造種子是透過將外源基因引入植物 DNA 中而產生的基因改造生物 (GMO)。這些基因可以編碼諸如害蟲抗性、除草劑耐受性和產量等性狀。基因改造種子旨在提高作物生產力和永續性,但引起了人們對安全、環境影響和企業對農業控制的擔憂。基因改造種子透過減少作物損失和化學品投入,為全球糧食安全挑戰提供了潛在的解決方案。
最近的研究表明,基改作物可使作物產量提高22%,減少農藥使用量37%,利潤增加68%。
世界人口成長和糧食需求
隨著人口成長,越來越需要提高農業生產力以滿足糧食需求。基因改造種子經過基因改造,表現出對害蟲和除草劑的抗性等特性,每英畝的產量可以比傳統種子更高。這導致農民採用基改種子,尋求最大限度地提高作物產量來養活不斷成長的人口,提高產量並減少可能威脅糧食安全的乾旱和害蟲等環境壓力,從而提高抵禦能力。
社會對基因改造生物安全性的擔憂
公眾對基因改造生物安全性的擔憂可能會促使政府對基因改造種子和產品實施更嚴格的法規和標籤要求。這可能成為種子公司進入市場的障礙,因為遵守各地區不同的法規既昂貴又耗時。此外,一些國家可能會透過徹底禁止種植或進口基改作物來應對公眾壓力,這可能會進一步限制基改種子的市場機會。
永續農業實踐的必要性
具有提高養分吸收效率和減少需水量等特性的基因改造種子可以提高資源利用效率並促進農業的永續性。透過最大限度地減少廢棄物和最佳化資源利用,這些種子可以為保育工作做出貢獻並減少農業的生態足跡。例如,經過固氮改造的作物可以減少對合成肥料的需求,而合成肥料可能會對環境產生負面影響,例如水污染和溫室氣體排放。
基因流和雜草抗性的潛力
雜草抗性損害了害蟲綜合治理方法的有效性並促進了對化學投入的依賴,從而對永續農業構成了挑戰。抗除草劑基改作物無法控制抗性雜草,可能會導致除草劑使用量增加、潛在的環境污染以及對非目標生物體的負面影響。這可能會破壞農業系統的長期永續性,加劇環境退化,阻礙市場成長。
COVID-19 的影響
一方面,供應鏈中斷和勞動力短缺正在影響種子生產和分銷。另一方面,人們日益認知到糧食安全和彈性農業系統的必要性,正在推動人們對具有抗病性和產量等特性的基因改造種子的興趣。監管延遲和農民收入下降帶來了挑戰,但永續農業的長期趨勢可能會推動疫情後基因改造種子的持續創新和採用。
預計在預測期內抗蟲產業將是最大的
抗蟲部分被認為有良好的成長。專為抗蟲而設計的基因改造種子為農民提供了免受害蟲侵害的保護,並減少了作物的損害和損失。這會提高產量和生產力,使此類種子對尋求最佳化農業產量的農民變得非常有吸引力。此外,農民可以減少購買農藥的成本以及散佈農藥所需的勞動力和設備,有助於提高農業經營的盈利和經濟效益。
零售市場預計在預測期內複合年成長率最高。
在預測期內,零售領域將見證最高的複合年成長率,因為零售商經常向農民提供有關基因改造種子的資訊和教育資源,例如其好處、特性和正確使用方法。這使得農民能夠就哪些基因改造種子最適合他們的特定需求和農業實踐做出明智的決定。此外,我們還可以提供技術援助、故障排除指導和產品建議,幫助農民最大限度地發揮基因改造種子的有效性,並解決他們可能遇到的任何問題或疑慮。
由於美國、加拿大和墨西哥等國家生產和銷售基因改造 (GM) 種子,預計亞太地區在預測期內將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這些公司在研發方面投入巨資,以創造具有理想性狀的新基因改造種子品種,這些品種可以提高作物產量,減少對化學品投入的需求,並提高農業永續性。這些特性為農民提高了效率並降低了生產成本,從而導致亞太地區農業廣泛採用基因改造種子。
預計北美在預測期內將呈現最高的複合年成長率,因為該地區包含玉米、大豆、棉花和油菜等主要作物的基因改造種子。拜耳、Corteva AgrisSciences、先正達和BASF等跨國公司佔據主導地位,並專注於害蟲抗性和除草劑耐受性等特性。這些特性為農民提供了增加的產量和降低的成本,但面臨對其環境和健康影響的審查。法律規範因地區而異,美國普遍較為寬鬆。儘管存在爭議,但基因改造種子在解決北美糧食安全和永續農業等農業挑戰方面發揮著重要作用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Transgenic Seed Market is accounted for $26.9 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $91.7 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period. Transgenic seeds are genetically modified organisms (GMOs) created by introducing foreign genes into plant DNA. These genes can encode traits like pest resistance, herbicide tolerance, or improved yield. Transgenic seeds aim to enhance crop productivity and sustainability but raise concerns about safety, environmental impact, and corporate control over agriculture. They offer potential solutions to global food security challenges by reducing crop losses and chemical inputs.
According to a recent study, GMOs enhance crop yields by 22%, reduce pesticide use by 37%, and increase profits by 68%.
Rising global population and food demand
With a growing population, there is an increasing need for higher agricultural productivity to meet the demand for food. Transgenic seeds, which are genetically modified to exhibit traits such as resistance to pests, diseases, and herbicides, can offer higher yields per acre compared to conventional seeds. This can lead to greater adoption of transgenic seeds by farmers looking to maximize their crop output to feed the growing population and improved yields, resilience against environmental stresses, such as drought or pests, which can threaten food security.
Public concern about genetically modified organism's safety
Public outcry over GMO safety concerns may prompt governments to impose stricter regulations or labelling requirements on transgenic seeds and products. This can create barriers to market access for seed companies, as compliance with varying regulations across different regions can be costly and time-consuming. Additionally, some countries may outright ban the cultivation or importation of genetically modified crops in response to public pressure, further limiting market opportunities for transgenic seeds.
Need for sustainable agricultural practices
Transgenic seeds designed for traits like increased nutrient uptake efficiency or reduced water requirements can enhance resource use efficiency in agriculture, promoting sustainability. By minimizing waste and optimizing resource utilization, these seeds can contribute to environmental conservation efforts and reduce the ecological footprint of agriculture. For example, crops engineered for nitrogen fixation can reduce the need for synthetic fertilizers, which can have adverse environmental impacts such as water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Potential for gene flow and weed resistance
Weed resistance poses challenges to sustainable agriculture by undermining the efficacy of integrated pest management practices and promoting reliance on chemical inputs. Inefficacy of herbicide-resistant transgenic crops in controlling resistant weeds can lead to increased herbicide usage, potential environmental contamination, and adverse impacts on non-target organisms. This can compromise the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems and exacerbate environmental degradation hampering the market growth.
Covid-19 Impact
On one hand, disruptions in supply chains and labor shortages have affected seed production and distribution. On the other hand, heightened awareness of food security and the need for resilient agricultural systems has spurred interest in transgenic seeds with traits like disease resistance and increased yields. Regulatory delays and reduced farmer incomes have posed challenges, but the long-term trend towards sustainable agriculture may drive continued innovation and adoption of transgenic seeds post-pandemic.
The insect resistance segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The insect resistance segment is estimated to have a lucrative growth, as transgenic seeds engineered for insect resistance offer farmer's protection against pests, reducing crop damage and losses. This leads to increased yields and productivity, making such seeds highly attractive to farmers seeking to optimize their agricultural output. Furthermore farmers spend less on purchasing pesticides, as well as on labour and equipment required for pesticide application, contributing to improved profitability and economic viability of farming operations.
The retail outlet segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The retail outlet segment is anticipated to witness the highest CAGR growth during the forecast period, owing to retail outlets which often provide information and educational resources to farmers about transgenic seeds, including their benefits, characteristics, and proper usage. This helps farmers make informed decisions about which transgenic seeds are best suited to their specific needs and agricultural practices. In addition these may offer technical assistance, troubleshooting guidance, or product recommendations to help farmers maximize the effectiveness of transgenic seeds and address any issues or concerns.
Asia Pacific is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period owing to the production, and sale of genetically modified (GM) seeds in countries like the United States, Canada, and Mexico. These companies invest heavily in research and development to create new genetically modified seed varieties with desirable traits that can improve crop yields, reduce the need for chemical inputs, and enhance agricultural sustainability. These traits offer farmers increased efficiency and reduced production costs, leading to widespread adoption of transgenic seeds in Asia Pacific agriculture.
North America is projected to have the highest CAGR over the forecast period, as it encompasses genetically modified seeds for major crops like corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. Dominated by multinational corporations such as Bayer, Corteva Agriscience, Syngenta, and BASF, it focuses on traits like pest resistance and herbicide tolerance. These traits offer farmers increased yields and reduced costs but face scrutiny over environmental and health impacts. Regulatory frameworks vary across the region, with the United States generally more permissive. Despite controversy, transgenic seeds play a significant role in addressing agricultural challenges, including food security and sustainable farming practices, within the North American context.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in the Transgenic Seed Market include BASF SE, Bayer AG, DLF-Trifolium, Dow AgroSciences, Vilmorin & Cie SA, Groupe Limagrain, KWS AG, Land O'Lakes, Limagrain, Monsanto, Nemours & Company, Sakata, Science AG, Simplot, Suntory, Syngenta, UPL Limited.
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