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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1359014
2030 年棕氫市場預測:依技術、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Brown Hydrogen Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Technology, End User and By Geography |
根據Stratistics MRC的數據,2023年全球棕氫市場規模為369.3億美元,預計2030年將達到581.5億美元,預測期內年複合成長率為6.7%。
褐氫是透過煤炭氣化過程產生的。煤在煤炭氣化過程中從固體轉變為氣體。當煤氣化時,其化學成分分離並產生甲烷氣體。分離出的氣體在運輸處置之前通常會清洗以回收氫氣和高濃度的二氧化碳。
據國際能源總署稱,基於石化燃料氫氣生產的精製和化學生產已經集中在世界各地的沿海工業區,包括歐洲北海、北美墨西哥灣沿岸和中國東南部。如果鼓勵這些工廠轉向更清潔的氫氣生產,整體成本將會降低。
推動棕氫市場的關鍵要素是全球範圍內對氫的需求不斷成長,氫既作為能源載體,又作為石化、精製和運輸部門工業流程的重要組成部分。此外,需求的增加也是各行業轉向氫氣以提高製程效率、減少排放氣體並滿足嚴格的品質標準的結果。同時,動力來源運輸的轉變正在加速,凸顯了氫在不斷變化的能源形勢中的重要作用。
更清潔的氫氣製造流程,例如生產藍色和綠色氫氣,可與棕色氫氣競爭。綠氫是透過可再生能源電解動力來源的,不排放二氧化碳,而藍氫是透過CCS從石化燃料產生的,比棕氫具有更低的碳排放。此外,棕色氫市場的永續性受到這些清潔替代的出現和擴張的威脅。
用於棕氫生產的 CCS 技術的發展為整個產業更廣泛的捕碳封存應用帶來了希望。對 CCS 的投資可以帶來降低成本、提高效率並加速全球排放的創新。此外,透過研究合作夥伴關係、產業合作夥伴關係和政府的財政激勵措施可以加速先進 CCS 解決方案的創建和部署。
隨著各國配合措施應對氣候變化,棕色氫生產產業對環境的影響仍是一個嚴重威脅。即使採用 CCS 技術,褐氫產生的二氧化碳 (CO2)排放也可能不符合長期排放目標。此外,棕色氫的持續發展可能會受到法規限制和有關燃料環境影響的公眾輿論變化的阻礙。
COVID-19大流行對棕氫市場產生了各種影響。建築項目和供應鏈最初被中斷,導致延誤和成本超支。但隨著世界各國政府更加重視經濟復甦,人們越來越認知到棕氫在促進創造就業機會和支持陷入困境的產業方面的潛力。因此,對棕氫配合措施的財政支持和立法支持有所增加,特別是與捕碳封存(CCS)技術相關的計劃。疫情也加速了向清潔能源的過渡,鑑於更雄心勃勃的排放目標以及綠氫和藍氫競爭的加劇,一些相關人員希望重新為棕氫提供動力。它的設計是為了進行評估。
制氫的最大市場份額預計將屬於水蒸氣甲烷重整(SMR)領域。 蒸汽甲烷重整是一種生產氫氣的試錯技術,應用頻繁。 蒸汽甲烷重整涉及天然氣(甲烷)和非常熱的水蒸氣的相互作用,分別產生氫氣和二氧化碳。 此外,SMR是首選,因為它有效且成本低於某些替代方法。 然而,不應忘記,儘管SMR是一種流行的技術,但人們對減少碳足跡的興趣日益濃厚,並且對碳捕獲和儲存(CCS)技術的興趣日益濃厚,以減少與SMR相關的碳足跡。
預計發電領域在預測期內年複合成長率最高。氫能發電作為傳統石化燃料燃料發電的清潔高效替代品越來越受歡迎。氫是向清潔能源過渡的關鍵元素,因為它可用於燃料電池和燃氣渦輪發電而不排放二氧化碳。政府和公用事業公司擴大投資氫發電工程,因為他們將氫涵蓋其能源結構,並考慮電網穩定和能源儲存的機會。隨著世界轉向可再生、低碳能源,氫能發電預計將繼續成長,並支持彈性和永續的能源未來。
亞太地區在棕氫市場中佔據最大佔有率。該地區,特別是中國、澳洲和日本等國家,在捕碳封存(CCS)和棕氫生產技術方面投入了大量資金。中國擁有大量煤炭蘊藏量,並將氫能作為其能源轉型策略的一部分,因此是特別重要的參與者。此外,日本和澳洲也在棕色氫計畫上投入大量資金,以實現能源多元化並支持其經濟。
在預測期內,棕色氫市場年複合成長率最高的是歐洲地區。歐洲制定了雄心勃勃的氫能策略,並積極推動氫能作為清潔能源轉型的關鍵要素。德國、荷蘭和英國國正在資助棕色氫項目,這些項目通常與捕碳封存(CCS)技術相結合。此外,這些配合措施是鋼鐵和化學等重工業脫碳化的需要,其中棕氫可以發揮關鍵作用。在歐洲,由於對實現碳中和和氫基礎設施發展的堅定承諾,棕色氫預計將出現高速成長。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Brown Hydrogen Market is accounted for $36.93 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $58.15 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period. Brown hydrogen is created using the coal gasification process. Coal is changed from a solid to a gas during coal gasification. When coal is gasified, its chemical components are separated out, producing methane gas. Following isolation, the gas can be conventionally cleaned to recover hydrogen and a stream of highly concentrated carbon dioxide before being transported for disposal.
According to IEA, refining and chemical manufacturing based on hydrogen derived from fossil fuels are already concentrated in coastal industrial zones worldwide, such as the North Sea in Europe, the Gulf Coast in North America, and south-eastern China. Overall expenses would be reduced if these plants were encouraged to switch to cleaner hydrogen generation.
A significant factor driving the brown hydrogen market is the rising demand for hydrogen on a global scale as an energy carrier and an essential element in industrial processes in the petrochemicals, refining, and transportation sectors. Moreover, this increase in demand is a result of industries turning to hydrogen to improve process efficiency, cut emissions, and meet strict quality standards. At the same time, it is accelerating the shift to hydrogen-powered transportation options, highlighting hydrogen's critical role in the changing energy landscape.
Cleaner hydrogen production processes, like those that produce blue and green hydrogen, compete with brown hydrogen. While green hydrogen is produced through electrolysis powered by renewable energy with no carbon emissions, blue hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels with CCS and has a lower carbon footprint than brown hydrogen. Additionally, the sustainability of the brown hydrogen market is threatened by the emergence and expansion of these cleaner substitutes.
The development of CCS technologies for the production of brown hydrogen offers hope for more extensive carbon capture and storage applications across industries. Innovations that lower costs, boost efficiency, and encourage global emissions reduction can result from investments in CCS. Furthermore, the creation and uptake of advanced CCS solutions can be sped up through research partnerships, industry alliances, and financial incentives from the government.
The brown hydrogen production industry's environmental impact continues to pose a serious threat as countries step up their efforts to combat climate change. Even with the use of CCS technology, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused by brown hydrogen may not be in line with long-term emission reduction goals. Moreover, brown hydrogen's continued development may be hampered by regulatory restrictions and shifting public opinion about the environmental effects of the fuel.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a wide range of effects on the market for brown hydrogen. Construction projects and supply chains were initially disrupted, which resulted in delays and cost overruns. However, as governments all over the world place a higher priority on economic recovery, a growing understanding of brown hydrogen's potential to promote job creation and support struggling industries has emerged. This resulted in increased financial support and legislative backing for brown hydrogen initiatives, particularly those connected to carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The transition to cleaner energy sources was also accelerated by the pandemic, which led some stakeholders to re-evaluate the function of brown hydrogen in light of more ambitious emission reduction goals and the growing competition from green and blue hydrogen.
The largest market share for hydrogen production is anticipated to belong to the steam methane reforming (SMR) segment. A tried-and-true and frequently applied technique for producing hydrogen is steam methane reforming. It entails the interaction of natural gas (methane) and extremely hot steam, which results in the production of hydrogen gas and carbon dioxide as byproducts. Moreover, SMR is preferred because it is effective and costs less than some alternative methods. But it's important to remember that even though SMR is a popular technique, there is a growing focus on lowering carbon emissions, which has raised interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to reduce the CO2 emissions connected with SMR.
Throughout the forecast period, the power generation segment is anticipated to have the highest CAGR. Hydrogen power generation is gaining popularity as a clean, efficient alternative to conventional electricity generation from fossil fuels. Hydrogen is a crucial component in the switch to clean energy because it can be used in fuel cells and gas turbines to generate electricity with no carbon emissions. Incorporating hydrogen into their energy mix and looking into opportunities for grid stabilization and energy storage, governments and utilities are investing more and more in projects that produce hydrogen power. Power generation using hydrogen is anticipated to continue growing, supporting a resilient and sustainable energy future as the global push for renewable and low-carbon energy sources increases.
The Asia-Pacific region had the largest market share for brown hydrogen. This region, especially nations like China, Australia, and Japan, has been heavily investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS) and brown hydrogen production technologies. Due to its large coal reserves and dedication to hydrogen as part of its energy transition strategy, China, in particular, was a significant player. Additionally, in order to diversify their energy sources and support their economies, Japan and Australia were also investing a sizable amount of money in brown hydrogen projects.
During the forecast period, the brown hydrogen market is expected to grow at the highest CAGR in the European region. Europe had outlined ambitious hydrogen strategies and had been actively pursuing hydrogen as a key component of its clean energy transition. Brown hydrogen projects were being funded in nations like Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, frequently in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Moreover, the need to de-carbonize heavy industry, including steel and chemicals, where brown hydrogen could play a key role, motivated these initiatives. High growth for brown hydrogen was anticipated in Europe due to the region's strong commitment to achieving carbon neutrality and the development of hydrogen infrastructure.
Some of the key players in Brown Hydrogen Market include: Shell Japan Limited , China Petrochemical Corporation., PetroChina Company Limited , Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Air Liquide S.A., J-Power Systems, Electric Power Development Co. Limited , Iwatani Corporation, Bloom Energy Corporation, Air Products Inc., Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Limited, Sinopec Limited and Sasol Limited.
In September 2023, ADNOC Gas plc has announced an agreement valued between US$450-550mn to supply LNG to PetroChina International Company Limited, a subsidiary of PetroChina Company Limited. This agreement follows several significant international LNG sales agreements, including those with Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. (JAPEX), TotalEnergies Gas and Power, and India Oil Corporation (IOCL).
In June 2023, Japan Airlines (JAL) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Shell Aviation, which will see JAL aircraft refuelled at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from 2025.The agreement supports JAL's ESG target of replacing 1% of its whole jet fuel amount with SAF in the 2025 fiscal year, set in its green transformation policy.
In June 2023, Air Liquide has signed a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the China Three Gorges Renewables and China Three Gorges Corporation Jiangsu Branch, subsidiaries of China Three Gorges, one of China's largest producers and retailers of renewable electricity, to purchase a total of 200 MW of renewable power per year in China. The renewable electricity will come from solar and wind farms located in the province of Jiangsu, which is the first province in China for Air Liquide in terms of electricity consumption.