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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1912143
太陽能熱感:全球市場佔有率和排名、總收入和需求預測(2026-2032 年)Solar Thermal - Global Market Share and Ranking, Overall Sales and Demand Forecast 2026-2032 |
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本報告分析了 2015 年至 2032 年全球太陽能熱感(聚光太陽能發電,CSP)市場,以 2024 年為基準年。
本報告將聚光太陽能熱感(CSP) 定義為一種公用事業規模的系統,它透過聚光光學元件、熱轉換和儲存模組以及發電模組將直接太陽輻射轉換為可調諧的電能,並涵蓋了四種技術系列:拋物槽式、太陽能塔式、線性菲涅爾反射器和拋物面碟式/碟式斯特林系統。
以以金額為準,全球太陽能熱感(CSP)市場預計在2024年約為12.7億美元,並預計到2032年將達到約116.5億美元。這意味著從2015年到2032年,該市場將維持約24%的強勁複合年成長率,其中2020年至2024年的複合年成長率預計將達到35%,成長尤為迅速。此外,預計2025年將是一個轉捩點,市場規模預計將比2024年翻倍。
就裝置容量而言,2024 年全球 CSP熱感的裝置容量和交付容量估計約為 1,267 兆瓦,預計到 2032 年將成長到約 11,649 兆瓦,反映出在關鍵預測期內,成長率將達到十幾到二十幾兆瓦。
從歷史上看,CSP 的部署遵循著「繁榮與蕭條」的模式:最初在北美、中東和北非 (MENA)、西班牙和南非等市場的建設推動全球收入在 2015-2019 年左右達到頂峰,隨後在 2020 年出現顯著下降,因為多項政策支持期結束,新的競標設計設計和光伏風能 (PV) 和風能。
當前週期以對可調度性和長時儲能日益成長的興趣為特徵,而中國是推動成長的主要動力。我們也看到,在預測期內,中東和北非地區、拉丁美洲部分地區、北美、撒哈拉以南非洲以及部分亞太經合組織成員國市場均有明確的計劃儲備。 2020年至2025年間,中國已佔據市場價值成長的大部分佔有率,預計收入將從2020年的約3.84億美元成長到2024年的約7.39億美元,2025年超過25億美元,到2032年接近78億美元。
在技術方面,市場正持續從槽式電站主導轉型為塔式電站轉型。雖然槽式電站仍佔累積裝置容量的很大一部分,但預計市場價值將越來越集中在整合熔鹽儲熱技術的塔式電站計劃中。從2027年到2032年,塔式電站預計將佔銷售額的四分之三或更多,槽式電站的佔有率將下降到個位數高位,線性菲涅爾電站將保持十幾個百分點的穩定市場佔有率,而碟式電站仍將佔據較小的市場佔有率。
這項變更反映了塔式設計能夠實現更高的溫度、更高的儲存密度,並為需要持續數小時甚至一夜的電力轉移的電網提案更強的系統價值。
該報告按地區詳細列出了中國、歐洲、北美、中東和北非(MENA)、南美、撒哈拉以南非洲以及亞太地區(APeC)的收入、銷量和成長指標。報告追蹤了從西班牙、美國、北非和南非最初的聚光太陽能發電(CSP)熱潮,到主導的新一輪熱潮,再到2020年代末和2030年代初主導MENA、拉丁美洲和其他高日照地區大規模混合能源競標和工業脫碳計劃驅動的新一輪熱潮的轉變。對於每個地區,該研究計算了:- 歷史銷售額(2015-2020年)- 復甦和在建項目(2021-2026年)- 到2032年的預測成長,包括各時期的複合年成長率(CAGR)以及大規模發電和工藝熱/工業應用構成比的變化。
在供應方面, 熱感行業仍然高度集中:按以收益為準,前五大製造商幾乎佔據了 2024 年的全部市場(CR5 = 99.8%),赫芬達爾-赫希曼指數也證實了這種高度的行業集中度。
競爭格局由一小群中國EPC公司和系統整合商(特別是中國電建、中國能源/中東歐和達成科技)塑造,它們共同主導了近期的EPC收入,而像Abengoa、Sener、Cobra、Acciona、TSK和GE這樣的老牌國際企業,在現有計劃合和技術業績記錄方面發揮著比近期收入更重要的作用。
該報告還繪製了廣泛的價值鏈,從關鍵原料供應商(熱燃料、反射鏡、接收器、渦輪機、熱交換器)到計劃開發商、EPC承包商和最終用戶產業。
需求前景受以下四個結構性因素支撐:(1)太陽能資源豐富的電力系統需要可靠的可調度容量和晚間高峰需求覆蓋;(2)採礦、煉油、化工、食品飲料和海水淡化等行業的高溫製程熱和蒸氣的工業脫碳;(3)鋰離子電池儲能(BESS)效率範圍之外的長時儲能存在經濟缺口,熔鹽熱能儲存(TES)可以與之競爭;(4)對結合太陽能光伏(PV)、太陽能熱感(CSP)和電池儲能的混合大型企劃的競標日益增多,以最佳化系統層面的投資組合。
為了平衡這些促進因素,該報告指出了關鍵挑戰和風險:與太陽能+儲能系統相比,結構性地更高的初始資本支出和更長的投資回收期;持續存在的融資能力和性能風險問題;跨緊密耦合子系統的EPC執行的複雜性;以及鏡場、熱流體和接收器相對密集的運行和維護要求。
調查方法結合了自下而上匯總公司層面的聚光熱感)收入、裝置容量和預估平均售價(ASP)數據,以及自上而下利用區域計劃資料庫、政策框架和二手統計數據進行三角驗證的方法。市場規模估算以出廠價為基礎,並以2024年作為量化基準年。 2025年至2032年的營收和銷售預測基於情境分析成長預測、德爾菲法輸入以及與已公佈計劃儲備的交叉檢驗。最終資料集清楚地展現了到2032年,聚光太陽能發電技術將從一項觀點技術熱感成為一種更廣泛採用的可調度可再生能源選擇和長時儲能解決方案,應用於高直接輻射(DNI)電力系統和工業叢集。
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This report analyzes the global Solar Thermal (Concentrated Solar Power, "CSP") market over the period 2015-2032, with 2024 as the base year. It defines Solar Thermal (CSP) as utility-scale systems that convert direct normal irradiance into dispatchable electricity via concentrating optics, a thermal conversion and storage block, and a power block, covering four technology families: parabolic trough, solar power tower, linear Fresnel reflector, and parabolic dish / dish-Stirling systems.
In value terms, the global Solar Thermal (CSP) market is estimated at about US$1.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach roughly US$11.65 billion by 2032. This implies a robust compound annual growth rate of around 24% over 2015-2032, with a particularly strong upswing from 2020 to 2024 (35% CAGR) and a step-change year in 2025 when market value is expected to double versus 2024.
On the volume side, global installed and delivered Solar Thermal (CSP) capacity is assessed at approximately 1,267 MW in 2024, rising to about 11,649 MW by 2032, reflecting high-teens to mid-twenties growth rates in the main forecast window.
Historically, CSP deployment has followed a boom-and-pause pattern. Early build-out in markets such as North America, MENA, Spain and South Africa drove global revenues to peaks around 2015-2019, followed by a pronounced dip in 2020 as several policy windows closed and new auction designs favored PV and wind.
The current cycle is characterized by a renewed focus on dispatchability and long-duration storage, with growth anchored in China and, over the forecast horizon, a visible pipeline in MENA, parts of Latin America, North America, Sub-Saharan Africa and selected APeC markets. China already accounts for the bulk of 2020-2025 market value growth, with revenue rising from roughly US$384 million in 2020 to about US$739 million in 2024 and over US$2.5 billion in 2025, before approaching US$7.8 billion by 2032.
Technologically, the market continues to transition from trough-dominated fleets toward tower-centric portfolios. While parabolic trough plants still represent a large share of the cumulative installed base, forecast market value is increasingly concentrated in power tower projects with integrated molten-salt thermal energy storage. By 2027-2032, tower systems are expected to account for roughly three-quarters or more of annual sales value, with parabolic troughs declining to a high-single-digit share, linear Fresnel systems occupying a stable niche in the low-teens, and dish-engine configurations remaining a very small fraction of the market.
This evolution reflects the higher temperature, higher storage density and stronger system-value proposition of tower designs where grids require multi-hour or overnight shifting.
Regionally, the report provides detailed revenue, volume and growth metrics for China, Europe, North America, MENA, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and APeC. It traces the shift from the first CSP wave in Spain, the United States, North Africa and South Africa toward a new cycle led by China and, in the late-2020s and early-2030s, by large hybrid tenders and industrial-decabonization projects in MENA, Latin America and other high-DNI regions. For each region, the study quantifies historical sales value (2015-2020), the recovery and pipeline phase (2021-2026) and the forecast ramp-up through 2032, including CAGR by period and the changing mix between utility-scale power generation and process-heat/industrial applications.
On the supply side, the Solar Thermal (CSP) industry remains highly concentrated. In revenue terms, the top five manufacturers account for close to the entire 2024 market (CR5 ≈ 99.8%), with a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index consistent with a highly concentrated sector.
The competitive landscape is shaped by a small group of Chinese EPCs and system integrators (notably POWERCHINA, Energy China/CEEC and Dacheng Technology), which collectively dominate recent EPC revenue, alongside established international players such as Abengoa, SENER, COBRA, ACCIONA, TSK and GE, whose role is more visible in the legacy project fleet and technology references than in near-term revenue.
The report also maps the broader value chain, from key raw-material suppliers (HTF, mirrors, receivers, turbines, heat exchangers) to project developers, EPC contractors and end-use industries.
The demand outlook is underpinned by four structural drivers: (1) the need for firm, dispatchable capacity and evening-peak coverage in PV-rich power systems; (2) industrial decarbonization of high-temperature process heat and steam for sectors such as mining, refining, chemicals, food & beverage and desalination; (3) the economic gap for long-duration storage beyond the efficient range of Li-ion BESS, where molten-salt TES can become competitive; and (4) the rise of hybrid mega-project tenders that bundle PV, CSP and batteries and optimize portfolios at system level.
Counterbalancing these drivers, the report highlights key challenges and risks: structurally higher upfront CAPEX and longer payback compared with PV+BESS, persistent bankability and performance-risk concerns, EPC execution complexity across tightly coupled subsystems, and relatively intensive O&M requirements for mirror fields, heat-transfer media and receivers.
Methodologically, the study combines bottom-up aggregation of company-level Solar Thermal (CSP) revenue, installed capacity and implied ASPs with top-down triangulation using regional project databases, policy frameworks and secondary statistics. Market size estimates are expressed at factory-gate price level, 2024 is used as the quantitative base year, and revenues and volumes for 2025-2032 are projected using a mix of scenario-based growth assumptions, Delphi inputs and cross-checks against announced project pipelines. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of how Solar Thermal (CSP) is expected to evolve from a niche technology into a more widely used dispatchable renewable option and long-duration storage solution in high-DNI power systems and industrial clusters through 2032.
Market Segmentation
By Company
Segment by Type
By Region
Chapter Outline
Chapter 1: Introduces the report scope of the report, global total market size (valve, volume and price). This chapter also provides the market dynamics, latest developments of the market, the driving factors and restrictive factors of the market, the challenges and risks faced by manufacturers in the industry, and the analysis of relevant policies in the industry.
Chapter 2: Detailed analysis of Solar Thermal (CSP) manufacturers competitive landscape, price, sales and revenue market share, latest development plan, merger, and acquisition information, etc.
Chapter 3: Provides the analysis of various market segments by Type, covering the market size and development potential of each market segment, to help readers find the blue ocean market in different market segments.
Chapter 4: Provides the analysis of various market segments by Application, covering the market size and development potential of each market segment, to help readers find the blue ocean market in different downstream markets.
Chapter 5: Sales, revenue of Solar Thermal (CSP) in regional level. It provides a quantitative analysis of the market size and development potential of each region and introduces the market development, future development prospects, market space, and market size of each country in the world.
Chapter 6: Provides profiles of key players, introducing the basic situation of the main companies in the market in detail, including product sales, revenue, price, gross margin, product introduction, recent development, etc.
Chapter 7: Analysis of industrial chain, including the upstream and downstream of the industry.
Chapter 8: Conclusion.