美國的食品市場預測(2025年):通貨膨脹，關稅，減重藥的崛起等

"美國食品展望 2025" 報告深入分析了消費者趨勢以及消費者行為和動機。該報告著眼於食品和飲料行業數十年的發展機遇，並提供了預測和建議，以指導零售商、批發商、服務提供者、食品加工商、包裝商和投資者做出與食品市場相關的商業決策。報告探討了通貨膨脹、關稅、減肥藥興起等問題。

關鍵主題領域包括：

GLP-1 藥物的使用日益增多，推動了人們對更有益的食品的需求，包括瘦肉蛋白、營養豐富的食品和有益腸道健康的食品。

"讓美國再次健康" （MAHA）運動的影響在呼籲減少人工色素和某些防腐劑的使用方面尤為明顯。

在食品價格居高不下的時期，追求價值的消費者正轉向基本類別以外的自有品牌選擇。

機會不僅存在於 "全蛋白" 食品中，也存在於添加纖維和減少糖分的 "更健康" 食品領域。

目錄

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 最近的歷史的趨勢

• 物價上漲：從供應鏈緊縮到通貨膨脹
• 許多消費者擔心通貨膨脹和食品價格上漲
• 關稅將進一步推高美國食品和飲料價格
• 物價上漲將影響消費者行為
• 減少家庭開支
• 隨著價格上漲，自有品牌更具吸引力
• 大多數消費者註意到食品價格上漲，許多人正在改變他們的購買決策
• 2024 年，消費者在食品購買決策中將更重視價格
• 壓力水平及其對食品和飲料消費的影響
• 零食趨勢
• 零食食用頻率
• 零食人口統計
• 吃零食的原因
• 餐點“零食化”
• 減肥
• 減肥藥
• 家庭烹飪仍然相對較高

第3章 概要

• 食品零售銷售額預測
• 流通趨勢
• 電子商務

第4章 麥片穀類

• 銷售額預測
• 市場規模停留在130億美元強2029年
• 類別銷售額
• 重要的機會
• 感覺的喜悅
• 零食
• 舒適村落眷戀之情
• 更健康
• 貼心的享受
• 負責任的新產品開發

第5章 巧克力糖果

• 銷售展望
• 市場規模2029年市場規模將超過350億美元
• 細分市場銷售額
• 關鍵機遇
• 感官享受
• 網紅靈感
• 舒適與懷舊
• 貼心的享受
• 負責任的新產品開發
• 植物性巧克力
• 添加CBD

第6章 甜餅乾

• 銷售額預測
• 2029年市場規模約190億美元
• 關鍵機遇
• 感官享受
• 文化美食
• 貼心的享受
• 舒適與懷舊
• 負責任的新產品開發D

第7章 燒(烤)的麵包

• 銷售額預測
• 超過2029年市場規模達220億美元
• 細分市場銷售額
• 關鍵機遇
• 感官享受
• 更健康
• 精心製作
• 舒適與懷舊
• 負責任的新產品開發
• 文化美食

第8章 新鮮的包裝沙拉

• 銷售額預測
• 新鮮的包裝沙拉的銷售額2029年增加到80億美元以上的話預期
• 細分市場銷售額
• 消費者洞察
• 包裝沙拉消費量下降
• 大多數食用袋裝沙拉的人越來越少
• 關鍵機遇
• CEA-室內農業
• 餐廳/廚師品質，在家即可享用
• 便利性
• 注重口味
• 負責任新產品開發
• 文化美食

第9章 冷凍正餐/正餐主菜

• 銷售額預測
• 市場規模2029年附近擴大160億美元
• 類別銷售額
• 關鍵機遇
• 餐廳/廚師品質，在家即可享用
• 植物基
• 文化烹飪
• 便利的備餐方式
• 更健康
• 感官享受
• 舒適與懷舊

第10章 冷凍披薩

• 銷售額預測
• 市場規模2029年迫近於90億美元
• 消費者洞察
• 只有一半美國家庭食用冷凍披薩
• 食用冷凍披薩的人較少頻繁
• 關鍵機遇
• 餐廳/廚師品質，在家即可享用
• 極致放縱
• 感官享受
• 舒適與懷舊
• 更健康
• 負責任的新產品開發

第11章 與ICE奶油冷凍食品

• 銷售額預測
• 市場規模2029年190億美元以上擴大
• 品類及細分市場銷售額
• 冷凍食品將持續超越冰淇淋
• 消費者洞察
• 普通（全脂）冰淇淋廣受歡迎
• 冰淇淋/義式冰淇淋/雪芭消費減少
• 關鍵機遇
• 感官享受
• 舒適與懷舊
• 貼心的享受
• 文化美食
• 負責任的新產品開發

第12章 餐點&點心棒

• 銷售額預測
• 2029年市場規模接近100億美元
• 品類銷售額
• 消費者洞察
• 消費量最高的零食棒群不斷擴大
• 主要品牌差異
• 關鍵機遇
• 享受
• 更健康
• 感官享受
• 文化美食
• 兒童
• 負責任的新產品開發

第13章 肉類和雞肉

• 銷售展望
• 2029年市場規模接近1,580億美元
• 品類及細分市場銷售額
• 肉類持續引領銷售成長
• 消費者洞察
• 雞肉比肉類更受歡迎，但兩者之間的差距正在縮小
• 消費者絕大多數喜歡新鮮食品而非冷凍食品
• 香腸的銷售量優於其他加工肉類
• 關鍵機遇
• 文化美食
• 便利的膳食準備
• 餐廳/廚師品質的居家烹飪
• 感官享受
• 植物性替代品
• 混合食品
• 培養肉麵臨的挑戰
• 其他選擇
• 負責任的新產品開發

第14章 天然奶酪和特別起士

• 銷售展望
• 2029年市場規模接近260億美元
• 品類銷售額
• 關鍵機遇
• 感官盛宴
• 貼心的享受
• 替代品
• 餐廳/起司店品質
• 零食

第15章 鹹味零食

• 收入展望
• 預計2029年市場規模將超過470億美元
• 細分市場收入
• 非洋芋片鹹味零食推動成長
• 消費者洞察
• 薯片仍是首選，但消費量正在下降
• 薯片愛好者的食量減少
• 關鍵機遇
• 感官盛宴
• 文化美食
• 貼心的享受
• 舒適與懷舊
• 負責任的新產品開發
• 兒童

第16章 湯品

• 銷售展望
• 預計到2029年，市場規模將超過100億美元
• 關鍵機遇
• 更健康
• 文化美食
• 舒適與懷舊
• 感官享受
• 網紅靈感

第17章 優格

• 銷售額預測
• 2029年市場規模迫近於150億美元
• 品類銷售額
• 消費者洞察
• 疫情後優格消費相對穩定
• 普通（全脂）優格依然受青睞
• 原味優格和風味優格的消費成長，水果優格的消費下降
• 2024年，大胃王族群將迎來最大成長
• 關鍵機遇
• 健康
• 無乳製品和植物性替代品
• 增加兒童消費
• 感官享受
• 網紅靈感
• 零食

U.S. Food Market Outlook 2025 provides insight into consumer trends as well as their behaviors and motivations. This report focuses on growth opportunities with analysis from decades of food and beverage perspective. Provided are both predictions and recommendations that are designed to guide retailers, wholesalers, service providers as well as food processors, packaging firms and investors in making decisions for their business about the food market. The report discusses inflation, tariffs, the rise of weight loss medications and more.

Key topic areas include:

Increasing GLP-1 drug use is boosting demand for better-for-you food options, including lean proteins, nutrient-dense foods, and gut-healthy options.

The MAHA - Make America Healthy Again - movement's impacts will be seen particularly in calls to reduce artificial colors and certain preservative classes.

Consumers seeking value in an era of still high food prices are turning to private label options, even outside basic categories.

Moving beyond "protein in everything", opportunities exist in the better-for-you segment by adding fiber and reducing sugar.

Table of Content

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• FOOD TRENDS
• Figure 1-1. Food Market Trends
• SCOPE
• METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 2: RECENT HISTORICAL TRENDS

• RISING PRICES: FROM SUPPLY CHAIN CRUNCHES TO INFLATION
• Many Consumers Are Concerned about Inflation and Rising Food Prices
• Table 2-1. Month-to-month changes in consumer price index (CPI) for all food items, 2022 - 2025 (percent change)
• Table 2-2. Consumer Concerns about Rising Food Prices, 2021 - 2024 (percent of consumers)
• Tariffs to Further Inflate US Food and Beverage Prices
• Rising Prices Impact Consumer Behavior
• Cutting Back on Household Expenses
• Table 2-3. Consumer Spending on "Extras", 2023 - 2024 (percent of consumers)
• Private Labels Are More Desirable as Prices Rise
• Table 2-4. Selected Private Label Department Dollar Sales Growth, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 (percent change)
• Table 2-5. Consumption Rates in last 6 months for Selected Store Brand Foods, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat selected product)
• The Vast Majority of Consumers Have Noticed the Rising Cost of Food, and Many Are Changing Their Purchasing Decisions
• Figure 2-1. Noticing the Rising Cost of Food and Beverages over the Past Year, 2024
• Figure 2-2. Impact of Rising Costs on Food/Beverage Purchasing, 2024
• Consumers Find Price More Important for Food Purchase Decisions in 2024
• Figure 2-3. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions, 2024
• Figure 2-4. Purchase Drivers for Food and Beverage Purchase Decisions by Household Income Bracket, 2024
• STRESS LEVELS AND IMPACT ON FOOD/BEVERAGE CONSUMPTION
• Figure 2-5. Stress Levels in the Last Six Months and Impact on Healthfulness of Food/Beverage Consumption, 2024
• Figure 2-6. Sources of Stress for Consumers Who Were Very or Somewhat Stressed in the Last Six Months, 2024
• Figure 2-7. Top Sources of Stress in the Last Six Months by Generation, 2024
• Figure 2-8. Happiness, Stress, and Health Status by Household Income Bracket, 2024
• Figure 2-9. Impact of Food Consumption on Mental or Emotional Well-Being, 2024
• SNACKING TRENDS
• Frequency of Snacking
• Table 2-6. Frequency of Snacking Habits on a Typical Weekday, 2024, 2025 (percent of consumers)
• Figure 2-10. Frequency of Snacking and Approaches Toward Snack/Portion Size, 2024
• Snacking Demographics
• Table 2-7. Always or Usually Eating Breakfast or Snacking More Than Once a Day by Demographic, 2024 (percent of consumers)
• Reasons for Snacking
• Table 2-8. Reasons for Snacking, 2024 & 2025 (percent of consumers)
• Figure 2-11. Top Motivations for Snacking, 2024
• Figure 2-12. Evening and Late Nigh Snack Choices, 2024
• "Snackification" of Meals
• Figure 2-13. Replacing Traditional Meals by Snacking or Eating Smaller Meals, 2024
• WEIGHT LOSS
• Figure 2-14. Motivations for Following Specific Eating Patterns or Diets in the Past Year, 2024
• Weight-loss Drugs
• Figure 2-15. Use of and Feelings Regarding GLP-1 or Other Weight Loss Drugs, 2025
• HOME COOKING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
• Table 2-9. Home Cooking Behaviors, Agree Completely, 2014 - 2024 (% of US adults)
• Table 2-10. Food Prepared From Scratch In Last 6 Months, 2014 - 2024 (% of households that make food from scratch)

CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW

• FOOD RETAIL SALES FORECAST
• Table 3-1. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019, 2024 - 2029P (million dollars and percent change)
• Table 3-2. US Retail Dollar Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019 - 2024 (billion dollars and percent change)
• Table 3-3. US Retail Dollar and Volume Sales by Top Food Categories, 2019 - 2024 (percent annual change)
• Table 3-4. Annual Price Changes by Top Food Categories, 2020 - 2024 (percent change)
• DISTRIBUTION TRENDS
• E-Commerce
• Table 3-5. Purchased Groceries Over Internet in Last 30 days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US adults)

CHAPTER 4: CEREAL

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market to Remain Slightly Over $13 Billion in 2029
• Table 4-1. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 4-2. US Cereal Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Snacking
• Comfort and nostalgia
• Healthier-for-you
• Mindful indulgence
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 5: CHOCOLATE CANDY

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increases to Over $35 Billion in 2029
• Table 5-1. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• Table 5-2. US Chocolate Candy Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Influencer Inspired
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Mindful Indulgence
• Responsible NPD
• Plant-Based Chocolate
• CBD Infused

CHAPTER 6: COOKIES

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market to Nearly $19 Billion in 2029
• Table 6-1. US Cookies Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Cultural Cuisine
• Mindful Indulgence
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 7: FRESH BREAD

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Over $22 Billion in 2029
• Table 7-1. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• Table 7-2. US Fresh Bread Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Healthier-for-you
• Specially Crafted
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Responsible NPD
• Cultural Cuisine

CHAPTER 8: FRESH PACKAGED SALADS

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Fresh Packaged Salad Sales Increasing to Over $8 Billion in 2029
• Table 8-1. US Fresh Packaged Salads Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Packaged Salad Consumption Declines
• Table 8-2. Consumption Rates for Packaged Fresh Salad and Fresh Produce, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)
• Most Packaged Salad Eaters Don't Consume That Often
• Table 8-3. Packages of Packaged Fresh Salad Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat packaged fresh salad)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• CEA-Indoor Farming
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Convenience
• Flavor-forward
• Responsible NPD
• Cultural Cuisine

CHAPTER 9: FROZEN DINNERS/ENTREES

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increasing to Nearly $16 Billion in 2029
• Table 9-1. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 9-2. US Frozen Dinners/Entrees Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Segment, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Plant-Based
• Cultural Cuisine
• Convenient Meal Prep
• Healthier-for-you
• Sensory Delight
• Comfort & Nostalgia

CHAPTER 10: FROZEN PIZZA

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaches $9 Billion in 2029
• Table 10-1. US Frozen Pizza Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Frozen Pizza Eaten by Only Half of US Households
• Table 10-2. Consumption Rates for Frozen Pizza, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households)
• Frozen Pizzas Eaters Don't Eat Them That Often
• Table 10-3. Packages of Frozen Pizza Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat frozen pizza)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Ultra-Indulgent
• Sensory Delight
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Healthier-for-you
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 11: ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increasing to Over $19 Billion in 2029
• Table 11-1. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million units, and percent change)
• Category and Segment Sales
• Frozen Novelties Will Continue to Outperform Ice Cream
• Table 11-2. US Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Retail Dollar Sales: By Category & Segment, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Regular (Full-Fat) Ice Cream Overwhelmingly Preferred
• Table 11-3. Types of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten Most Often, 2017 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
• Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaters Don't Consume Much
• Table 11-4. Pints of Ice Cream/Gelato/Sherbet Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2016 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat ice cream/gelato/sherbet)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Mindful Indulgence
• Cultural Cuisine
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 12: MEAL & SNACK BARS

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $10 Billion in 2029
• Table 12-1. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 12-2. US Meal & Snack Bars Retail Sales: By Category, Segment 2019 - 2029 (million dollars)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Heaviest-Consuming Snack Bar Group Expands
• Table 12-3. Number of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola Bars Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2018 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat breakfast/cereal/granola bars)
• Key Brand Differences
• Table 12-4. Consumption Rates for Selected Brands of Breakfast/Cereal/Granola & Nutrition/Energy Bars, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households that eat bars)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Indulgence
• Healthier-For-You
• Sensory Delight
• Cultural Cuisine
• Kid-Focused
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 13: MEAT AND POULTRY

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $158 Billion in 2029
• Table 13-1. US Meat and Poultry Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Category and Segment Sales
• Meat Continues to Dominate Category Sales
• Table 13-2. US Meat and Poultry Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category/Segment, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent change)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Poultry Preferred Over Meat but Gap Shrinking
• Table 13-3. Consumption Rates for Meat & Poultry, 2014 --2024 (percent of households)
• Consumers Overwhelming Prefer Fresh Over Frozen
• Table 13-4. Consumption Rates for Fresh versus Frozen Meat & Poultry, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households that eats meat or poultry)
• Sausages Outperforming Other Processed Meats
• Table 13-5. Consumption Rates for Selected Processed Meats and Poultry, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Cultural Cuisine
• Convenient Meal Prep
• Restaurant/Chef Quality at Home
• Sensory Delight
• Plant-based Alternatives
• Blends
• Cultivated Meat Facing Challenges
• Other Alternatives
• Responsible NPD

CHAPTER 14: NATURAL AND SPECIALTY CHEESE

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $26 Billion in 2029
• Table 14-1. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 14-2. US Natural and Specialty Cheese Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Mindful Indulgence
• Alternatives
• Restaurant/Cheese Shop Quality
• Snacking

CHAPTER 15: SALTY SNACKS

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market to Exceed $47 Billion in 2029
• Table 15-1. US. Salty Snacks Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pounds, and percent change)
• Segment Sales
• Growth Driven by Non-Chip Salty Snacks
• Table 15-2. US. Salty Snack Market Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars and percent change)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• Potato Chips Still Most Preferred But Trending Down
• Table 15-3. Consumption Rates for Selected Salty Snacks, 2014 - 2024 (percent of households)
• Chip Eaters Don't Consume Much
• Table 15-4. Bags of Potato Chips Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat potato chips)
• Table 15-5. Bags of Corn/Tortilla/Other Chips & Cheese Snacks Eaten in Last 30 Days, 2014 -2024 (percent of US households that eat corn/tortilla/other chips & cheese snacks)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Sensory Delight
• Cultural Cuisine
• Mindful Indulgence
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Responsible NPD
• Kid-focused

CHAPTER 16: SOUP

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Increasing to Over $10 Billion in 2029
• Table 16-1. US Soup Market Retail Dollar Sales, 2019 - 2029 (in millions of dollars, millions of pounds/16oz. equivalents, and percent change)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Healthier-for-You
• Cultural Cuisine
• Comfort & Nostalgia
• Sensory Delight
• Influencer Inspired

CHAPTER 17: YOGURT

• SALES OUTLOOK
• Market Approaching $15 Billion in 2029
• Table 17-1. US Yogurt Retail Sales, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars, million pints, and percent change)
• Category Sales
• Table 17-2. US Yogurt Retail Dollar Sales: By Category, 2019 - 2029 (million dollars)
• CONSUMER INSIGHTS
• After Pandemic Boost, Yogurt Consumption Relatively Steady
• Table 17-3. Consumption Rates for Yogurt, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households)
• Regular (Full-Fat) Yogurt Still Preferred
• Table 17-4. Types of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
• Plain and Flavored Yogurt Gain at Expense of Fruit Varieties
• Table 17-5. Kinds of Yogurt Eaten Most Often, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
• Greatest Growth in 2024 from Those Eating the Most
• Table 17-6. Containers of Yogurt Eaten in Last 7 Days, 2014 - 2024 (percent of US households that eat yogurt)
• KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Healthier-For-You
• Dairy-Free and Plant-Based Alternatives
• Increase Kids' Consumption
• Sensory Delight
• Influencer Inspired
• Snacking