EV的各地區預測 - 北美

EV Geographic Forecast - North America: U.S. and Canadian Light Duty Plug-In EV and EV Supply Equipment Forecasts by State, Province, and Major Metropolitan Area, 2025-2034

出版日期: 2025年06月06日 | 出版商:

Guidehouse Research | 英文 66 Pages | 訂單完成後即時交付

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簡介目錄

近年來，北美插電式電動車 (PEV) 銷量持續成長，並在 2024 年創下歷史新高。儘管如此，由於通貨膨脹率上升和原材料成本的長期波動，需求低於預期。因此，一些汽車製造商重新評估了其電氣化計劃。然而，由於 "2021 年基礎設施與就業法案" 和 "2022 年通膨削減法案" 的投資將有助於提高產能，並降低 PEV 的初始成本（預計電池組成本將下降），預計 PEV 在北美汽車市場將繼續增長。

在新一屆美國政府的領導下，支持 PEV 成長的政策環境可能會面臨重大變化。新政府已表示打算終止 PEV 和電動車供電設備 (EVSE) 供應鏈的聯邦資助，以及提高燃油效率的政策。對汽車、汽車零件、半導體和鋼鐵徵收的關稅，以及對幾乎所有美國貿易夥伴徵收的一般關稅，預計也將對北美汽車產業造成重大衝擊。

該報告分析了電動車技術、創新、激勵措施、政策和車輛供應情況，並預測了美國和加拿大在國家、州或省以及地區或區域層面的純電動車滲透率。該預測受電池組和技術創新、燃油價格、車型供應以及零排放汽車 (ZEV) 法規的影響。報告涵蓋乘用車和輕型卡車細分市場，以及純電動車 (BEV)、插電式混合動力電動車 (PHEV) 和混合動力電動車 (HEV) 等動力系統分類。 EVSE 採用預測按技術（1 級 [L1]、2 級 [L2]、直流快速充電器）和用例（車隊、公共設施、多住宅單元 (MUD)、單住宅單元 (SUD)、SUD 共享住宅和工作場所）細分。

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) have continued to increase in North America during recent years, with 2024 sales setting a new high. Despite this growth, demand was weaker than expected due to higher inflation and lingering volatility in the cost of raw materials. As a result, some automakers reevaluated their electrification plans. However, PEVs are expected to continue to be a growing piece of the North American vehicle market due to increases in production capacity spurred by investments from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act of 2021 and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and from an expected decrease in battery pack costs, which are likely to reduce the upfront cost of PEVs.

The policy environment that has helped PEV growth is likely to face significant change under the new U.S. administration, which has indicated plans to end policies that improve fuel efficiency as well as federal funding for PEV and EV supply equipment (EVSE) supply chains. Tariffs introduced on automobiles, auto parts, semiconductors, and steel, along with general tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, are also expected to cause significant disruption to the North American auto industry.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology, innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the U.S. and Canada on the national, state or province, and sub-state or sub-province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck segmentation in addition to powertrain breakouts by battery EVs (BEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and hybrid EVs (HEVs). Forecasts for EVSE deployments are segmented by technology (Level 1 [L1], Level 2 [L2], and DC fast chargers) and use cases, including fleet, public, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwellings (SUD), SUD-shared residences, and workplace.

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Market Drivers, Barriers, and Updates
- 2.2.1 Battery Pack Prices
- 2.2.2 Fuel Prices
- 2.2.3 Automotive OEM PEV Investment
- 2.2.4 Model Availability
- 2.2.5 PEV Policy Environment
  - 2.2.5.1 Incentives
  - 2.2.5.2 Regulations
  - 2.2.5.3 Tariffs
- 2.2.6 EVSE Policy Environment

3. Industry Value Chain

3.1 Competitive Landscape
3.2 Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain
3.3 Business Model Evolution
- 3.3.1 Onshoring Production
- 3.3.2 Supply Chain Consolidation
3.4 Other Notable Industry Developments

4. Forecast Methodology

4.1 Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview
- 4.1.1 Long-Run Market Share: Competition Between Powertrains
- 4.1.2 Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption
- 4.1.3 Vehicle Sales Forecasts and Model Calibration
- 4.1.4 Geographic Specificity
4.2 The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

5. Market Forecasts

5.1 Introduction
5.2 U.S.
- 5.2.1 PEV Forecasts
- 5.2.2 EVSE Forecasts
- 5.2.3 State Forecasts
- 5.2.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas
5.3 Canada
- 5.3.1 PEV Forecasts
- 5.3.2 EVSE Forecasts
- 5.3.3 Canadian Province Forecasts
- 5.3.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

6.1 Three Big Takeaways
6.2 Recommendations
- 6.2.1 Automakers
- 6.2.2 Governments
- 6.2.3 Battery Manufacturers
- 6.2.4 EVSE Suppliers, Operators, and Manufacturers
- 6.2.5 Utilities