超大規模市場追蹤（2025年第四季）：2025年資本支出成長65%，超過5,000億美元

儘管出現了一些令人擔憂的徵兆，但大型科技公司對人工智慧的熱情高漲，以及它們對持續競爭優勢的追求，推動資本支出（CAPEX）的成長。

2025年第四季概覽

本報告涵蓋了一個規模空前龐大、瞬息萬變且難以預測的市場。年銷售額已突破3兆美元。資本支出首次突破5000億美元，一年內成長65%。淨利率達到15年來的最高水準。然而，自由現金流降至15年來的最低水準。過去六年以7%年均速度成長的員工人數，如今已降至零成長。本報告分析了這些資料背後的促進因素、企業的成長與停滯，以及資料所揭示的市場未來走向。

銷售額：在 Meta、Alphabet 和 CoreWeave 的推動下，銷售額再次成長，年增 14%。

2025年第四季，超大規模資料中心公司的營收達到8,750億美元，年增14.2%；按年計算，其營收將達到3.019兆美元（年增13.2%）。Amazon、Apple、Alphabet、Microsoft、Meta繼續保持主要企業。 Meta的成長超過20%，這主要得益於其在人工智慧驅動的廣告排名、定向和建議的改進。

資本支出：人工智慧競爭推動年度資本支出首次突破 5,000億美元。

2025年第四季年度資本支出達5,070億美元，年增64.7%。資本密集度升至營收的16.8%。在資料庫中，超大規模企業的資本密集度首次超過了電信市場。技術相關（網路、IT和軟體）資本支出為2,970億美元（年增77.5%），佔總數的近60%，主要集中在GPU伺服器及相關電力和冷卻系統。剩餘的2100億美元「其他資本支出」用於土地和實體設施建設。排名前四名的超大規模資料中心業者（Amazon、Alphabet、Microsoft和Meta）在2025年第一季至第四季期間的資本支出總額中佔比高達74.2%。在主要企業中，Oracle和Meta的網路和IT資本支出集中度最高，而Apple排名墊底，因為它將其大部分基礎設施外包給了合作夥伴公司。

資本支出展望：2026-2028年的三種情景

2025年資本支出（CAPEX）略高於 5,000億美元。未來展望取決於三種潛在情境。高成長情境與目前主要科技公司的官方預測相符，預計2026年資本支出將超過 8,000億美元，並在接下來的兩年內維持在 7,000億至 8,000億美元之間。2027-2028年略有下降的情境假設，超大規模資料中心業者研發的替代晶片將逐漸普及，NVIDIA在晶片部署領域的主導地位將開始下降，一些待定計劃將被取消或合併，輿論反彈仍將持續，電力供應仍將是阻礙因素。

盈利：淨利率達到歷史新高，而自由現金流仍處於歷史低點。

淨利率與自由現金流（FCF）利潤率之間的差距顯著擴大。2025年第四季，淨利率達到創紀錄的21.1%，創下自2011年資料庫紀錄以來的最高水準。同時，自由現金流利潤率則維持在12.8%的歷史低位，與2025年第三季的結果持平。自由現金流是透過經營活動產生的現金流量減去資本支出（CAPEX）計算得出的，通常被認為比淨利潤更可靠。這一差距反映了人工智慧競爭的殘酷現實。由於自由現金流是透過經營活動產生的現金流減去資本支出計算得出的，大型超大規模資料中心業者面臨著因巨額資本支出而耗盡流動性的風險。Microsoft、Alphabet和Meta的淨利潤表現強勁，但它們在競相建造更多GPU叢集的過程中也在消耗現金儲備。Amazon和Oracle也處於類似的循環中，它們用流動性強的現金換取投資回報週期較長的硬性基礎設施。

雇用：由於超大規模超大規模資料中心業者暗示將進一步裁員，員工成長率較去年同期停滯在 0.0%。

2025年第四季，超大規模資料中心產業的整體成長率較去年同期持平，為0.0%，與2019年至2025年預計的7.1%的年複合成長率形成鮮明對比。 Meta和Amazon都已宣布將在2026年第一季裁員，Microsoft也已凍結多個部門的招募。由於Amazon、Alibaba和JD.com等公司的物流、履約配送負責人數量龐大，因此超大規模資料中心產業的員工總數難以衡量。而當聚焦於更以科技為中心的超大規模超大規模資料中心業者時，員工總數的下降趨勢則更為明顯。

依地區分類的銷售額：北美和南美主導，歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長迅速。

2025年，美洲地區佔超大規模資料中心公司總營收的46.4%。自2011年以來，這一比例基本上保持穩定，但在過去三年中略有上升。以絕對值計算，美洲地區的年收入達到1.399兆美元，較2024年成長13.0%。亞太地區則位居第二，營收為9,740億美元（成長11.6%），其次是歐洲，營收為5,500億美元（成長15.8%），以及中東和非洲地區，營收為960億美元（成長16.1%）。

目標公司：

• 共有25家公司被納入研究範圍：其中21家仍在運作並已公開資料。其餘4家公司為已停止營運（ChinaCache），轉為私人（Twitter），或被其他公司收購（Altaba和LinkedIn）。
• 21 家活躍公司包括Alibaba、Alphabet、Amazon、Apple、Baidu、Cognizant、CoreWeave、eBay、Fujitsu、HPE、IBM、JD.COM、Kuaishou、Meta（FB）、Microsoft、Nebius、Oracle、SAP、Tencent、Xiaomi、Yandex。
• 2025年第二季，新增了三家公司：Kuaishou、Nebius、Xiaomi。 CoreWeave於2024年第四季加入。
• 交易廠商：AMD、Arista、Ciena、Cisco、HPE、Infinera、Intel、Juniper、Nokia、NVIDIA、Wiwynn

目錄

第1章 報告要點

第2章 展望

第3章 分析

第4章 關鍵統計資料

第5章 公司分析

第6章 企業標竿管理

第7章 區域分析

第8章 原始資料

第9章 外匯

第10章 關於我們

Big tech's AI mania and the search for the elusive moat is driving capex higher, despite some alarming warning signs.

Snapshot view of 4Q25

The 4Q25 edition of MTN Consulting's Hyperscale Tracker covers a market that has never been bigger, faster-moving, or harder to read. Annualized revenues crossed $3 trillion. Capex cleared $500 billion for the first time, up 65% in a single year. Net profit margins hit a 15-year high. And yet free cash flow margins dropped to a 15-year low. Headcount growth, which ran at 7% per year over the prior six years, fell to zero. The full report analyzes what is driving each of these numbers, which companies are winning and losing, and what the data says about where this market goes next.

Why read this report

MTN Consulting has been tracking this market with quarterly deep dives since 4Q17, and our database begins in 4Q11. We have a long history of in-depth coverage of this market, and proprietary tools and consistent, comparable data across revenues, capex, R&D, profitability, employment, and balance sheet metrics for the world's leading hyperscalers (previously called "webscalers"). We cover Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Oracle, Alibaba, Tencent, and more than a dozen other players, including newer entrants like Coreweave, Nebius, Kuaishou, and Xiaomi. No other analyst firm covers this market with this depth or our data coverage.

We have been calling this market a bubble for over a year and a half, and that view is reflected throughout the analysis. The full 4Q25 report includes detailed company-by-company breakouts, regional data, vendor revenue benchmarks, and three capex outlook scenarios for 2026-2028 ranging from $420 billion to $810 billion. If you are making investment, procurement, or strategic decisions that depend on where hyperscale spending goes from here, this report is built for you.

Hyperscale's AI-driven infrastructure buildout keeps breaking records. In 4Q25, the companies in our Hyperscale Tracker generated $875 billion (B) in single-quarter revenue (+14.2% YoY), with annualized revenues reaching $3.019 trillion (+13.2% YoY). Annualized capex hit $507B (+64.7% YoY), R&D reached $384B (+20.2% YoY), and cash holdings stood at $745B (+13.6% YoY) against $679B in debt (+23.2% YoY). Net PP&E surged 47.5% YoY to $1.368 trillion. Headcount growth was essentially flat at 0.0% YoY.

Notes: (1) This is MTN Consulting's 33rd quarterly assessment of the hyperscale market, part of a series we launched in 4Q17; our data and analysis spans the 1Q11-4Q25 timeframe, i.e. 60 quarters. (2) The companies in our study include several recent additions: CoreWeave (added in 2024), and Kuaishou, Nebius (Yandex spinoff), and Xiaomi (added in 3Q25). (3) The 4Q25 edition adopts a new term for the sector, swapping "webscale" with the more common "hyperscale".

Revenue: Topline grows at 14% YoY rate again, led by Meta, Alphabet, and Coreweave

Hyperscale revenues reached $875B in 4Q25, up 14.2% YoY, with annualized revenues rising to $3.019T (+13.2% YoY). The largest players remain Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta. Meta continues to deliver above 20% growth, driven by AI-powered improvements in advertisement ranking, targeting, and recommendations.

The fastest growth came from Coreweave (+110% YoY), the crypto-turned-neocloud player. Nebius, the Yandex spinoff, recorded an even higher rate but remains an outlier with limited geographic reach. Among established companies, Meta (+24%), HPE (absorbing Juniper, +18%), and Alphabet (+18%) saw the strongest top-line results, with GCP acceleration, YouTube advertising, and Gemini enterprise seats all contributing at Alphabet. At the other end, revenue weakness was seen at Baidu (weak legacy ad business), JD.Com (weak Chinese economy and price competition), and Alibaba (tough ecommerce competition). Fujitsu declined as well.

Advertising remains central for several firms. Meta is the most exposed, with ads still driving nearly all revenue, despite efforts to diversify into hardware and AI platforms. Alphabet's non-ad share has risen above 25%. Amazon is approaching 10% of revenues from ads. Ad-dependent companies face heightened risk given concerns about US consumer spending in 2026, which have grown more pronounced following the energy market disruption created by the Trump administration's actions in Iran. A further open question is whether scaled AI platforms will rely heavily on ads, given slow traction for paid subscription models outside early adopters.

Capex: AI arms race drives annualized capex past $500 billion for the first time

Annualized capex reached $507B in 4Q25, up 64.7% YoY, with capital intensity rising to 16.8% of revenues. For the first time in our database, hyperscale capital intensity exceeded that of the telco market. Tech-related (Network, IT, and software) capex accounts for nearly 60% of the total at $297B (+77.5% YoY), focused heavily on GPU servers and related power and cooling systems. The remaining $210B in "other capex" covers land and physical facility construction. The top four hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta) accounted for 74.2% of all capex in the 1Q25-4Q25 period. Oracle and Meta lead in network and IT capex intensity among major players; Apple is at the bottom, having offloaded most infrastructure to partners.

R&D intensity settled at 12.7% of revenues in 4Q25. For years, R&D as a percentage of revenue tracked well above capex, reflecting a software-centric innovation model. That pattern has reversed: capex has surged to 17% of revenues while R&D has plateaued near 13%. The sector's focus has shifted from a code-first model to a hardware-first land grab. Meta leads in R&D intensity at 29% of revenues, followed by SAP and Oracle.

NVIDIA's data center revenues have scaled in close alignment with hyperscaler tech capex. Other vendors benefiting from the hyperscale buildout include AMD, Arista, Ciena, Cisco, Corning, and Wiwynn. Many of these are racing to expand capacity to meet the rising opportunity, but they also need to hedge against downside risk from a market collapse. Even without that, there will inevitably be a shift away from the market's current over-reliance on NVIDIA. As custom silicon and new chip options mature, a correction in the Network/IT capex line is possible, potentially freeing up capital for R&D or physical facility expansion.

Net PP&E per employee averaged $303K in 4Q25. The big AI model builders are outliers, with net PP&E per employee several times larger than the market average. Fujitsu, JD, SAP, and several others have moved away from infrastructure ownership and record less than $100K in net PP&E per employee. Coreweave and Nebius are at the opposite extreme. M&A spending remains far below capex levels. Traditional acquisitions are too slow a tool for the current arms race, with large deals taking a year or more to close. Capital is instead flowing into infrastructure capex, targeted IP purchases, and acquihires. The Meta-Scale AI transaction ($14B+ for a 49% stake) illustrates this trend, securing talent and data-labeling IP without the integration lag of a full buyout.

Hyperscale capex, negligible a decade ago, surpassed telco capex for the first time in 4Q24, and reached $500B in 2025. US deployments account for an outsized share, representing around 60% of global capex in recent years, though this ratio dipped slightly in 2025 and is likely to slip further as hyperscalers expand footprints in other regions. Chinese AI players' expansion abroad, including into belt-and-road markets, will support this transition. In the short term, GenAI-related spending remains heavily concentrated in the US.

Capex Outlook: Three scenarios for 2026-2028

Capex in 2025 ended at just over $500B. Three potential scenarios shape the outlook. The high case follows current official projections from key tech players, projecting capex above $800B in 2026, followed by two years in the $700-800B range. The slight decrease in 2027-28 assumes NVIDIA begins to lose its lock on chip deployments as captive alternatives developed by hyperscalers take hold, some pending projects are canceled or consolidated, public backlash against buildouts remains a factor, and power stays a constraint on expansion.

The base case projects capex of $550-600B for the next two years, followed by a downtick in 2028. The low case assumes a market correction begins in mid-2026, triggered by a mix of weak economic news from 1Q26 and, relatedly, soft financial results from the hyperscalers themselves. This scenario does not assume an economic depression, but does assume that Chinese companies continue to make breakthroughs at far lower levels of investment and without full access to the priciest chips, and that custom silicon produced by the hyperscalers themselves mature rapidly as an economic alternative to NVIDIA GPUs.

Profitability: Net margin hits record high while free cash flow margin stays at record low

The divergence between net margin and FCF margin has widened significantly. Net profitability reached a record 21.1% in 4Q25, the highest in our database going back to 2011. At the same time, FCF margin sits at 12.8%, the lowest on record, tied with the 3Q25 result. FCF is cash from operations minus capex and is generally a more reliable profit metric than net income. The gap reflects the brutal math of the AI arms race: because FCF is operating cash minus capex, the hyperscaler heavyweights risk cannibalizing their own liquidity with their immense capex spend. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are reporting good net income, but are eating into cash reserves as they race to build more GPU clusters. Amazon and Oracle remain in the same cycle, trading liquid cash for hard infrastructure with long payoff horizons.

On a per-employee basis, Apple and Meta are leaders in FCF, generating $740K and $585K per employee respectively over the last 12 months. Apple's high figures reflect its cautious stance on AI-related capex. In terms of FCF margins by company, Apple leads at 28% and Meta follows at 23%. At the other end, Oracle, Baidu, and Alibaba all recorded negative FCF margins, reflecting heavy build-ahead phases where massive capex for AI infrastructure is being recognized immediately while resulting revenue lags. Margin compression at Alibaba and Tencent reflects a different struggle: navigating a weakened Chinese economy and intense competition while ramping up AI spend.

Regulatory fines and civil lawsuits represent a persistent, though minor, risk to profitability. Hyperscalers consistently treat this as a cost of doing business, often ignoring rulings, aggressively fighting them in court, and using public relations to minimize backlash, moving far from the earlier "don't be evil" philosophy.

Employment: Headcount growth stalls at 0.0% YoY as hyperscalers signal further cuts

Headcount growth across the hyperscale sector was flat at 0.0% YoY in 4Q25, a sharp contrast to the 2019-25 CAGR of 7.1%. Meta and Amazon have both announced layoffs entering 1Q26, and Microsoft has frozen hiring in several groups. Total headcount is a tricky metric in hyperscale, as the sector's employee base is influenced heavily by logistics, fulfillment, and delivery employees at companies like Amazon, Alibaba, and JD.Com. Among the more tech-centric hyperscalers, the direction is clearly downward.

The hyperscale business model is built around massive economies of scale, with investment concentrated in areas where the marginal cost of production can approach zero. Many hyperscaler executives would be happy to see headcount fall significantly and rely on AI platforms to run more of their operations over time. That is clearly the industry's direction. Revenue per employee and net PP&E per employee have both made sizable gains in the last 2-3 years, and those trends are likely to continue.

Regional Revenues: Americas dominant, Europe and MEA growing faster

The Americas accounted for 46.4% of hyperscale revenues in 2025, a share that has held broadly stable since 2011 but edged up slightly over the last three years. In absolute terms, Americas revenues reached $1.399 trillion for the year, up 13.0% from 2024. Asia Pacific was the second largest region at $974 billion (+11.6%), followed by Europe at $550 billion (+15.8%) and MEA at $96 billion (+16.1%).

In 4Q25 specifically, Europe and MEA were the fastest-growing regions on a YoY basis, up 18.5% and 19.0% respectively, while Asia Pacific lagged slightly at 11.9%. The outperformance of Europe and MEA likely reflects continued international expansion by the major US-based hyperscalers, as well as a lower base. Asia Pacific's more modest growth reflects a mix of macro headwinds in China and the competitive pressures facing Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.Com noted elsewhere in this report.

Companies covered:

• 25 in total: 21 active and reporting data publicly, 4 either inactive (ChinaCache), gone private (Twitter), or now part of other companies (Altaba and LinkedIn).
• The 21 active companies include: Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Cognizant, CoreWeave, eBay, Fujitsu, HPE, IBM, JD.COM, Kuaishou, Meta (FB), Microsoft, Nebius, Oracle, SAP, Tencent, Xiaomi, and Yandex
• Three new companies have been added in 2Q25: Kuaishou, Nebius, and Xiaomi. CoreWeave was added in 4Q24.
• Vendors addressed: AMD, Arista , Ciena, Cisco, HPE, Infinera, Intel, Juniper, Nokia, NVIDIA, and Wiwynn

Table of Contents

1. Report highlights

2. Outlook

3. Analysis

4. Key Stats

5. Company Drilldown

6. Company Benchmarking

7. Regional Breakouts

8. Raw Data

9. Exchange Rates

10. About

List of Figures and Charts

• 1. Capex outlook by scenario ($B)
• 2. Key Metrics: Growth rates, Annualized 4Q25/4Q24 vs. 2021-25
• 3. Hyperscale Revenues: Single-quarter & annualized (US$M)
• 4. Key Hyperscaler revenues: YoY % revenue growth in 4Q25
• 5. Annualized profitability: HYPERSCALEs
• 6. Free cash flow per employee, 4Q25 annualized (US$)
• 7. Key Hyperscaler free cash flow margins: 4Q25 annualized
• 8. Advertising revenues as % total (FY2024)
• 9. Annualized capex and R&D spending: HYPERSCALEs (% revenues)
• 10. Hyperscale capex by type, Annualized: 4Q14-4Q25 (US$M)
• 11. Network & IT capex as share of revenues, 4Q25 annualized
• 12. Key Hyperscaler R&D expenses, % revenues: 4Q25 annualized
• 13. Acquisition spending vs. capex spending, annualized (US$M)
• 14. Net PP&E per employee (US$' 000) - 4Q25
• 15. Ranking the Hyperscale Network Operators: Revenues; R&D; Capex; Network & IT capex - 2025 & 4Q25 (US$B)
• 16. Annualized spending for key Hyperscalers since 2011 Capex: Network, IT and software
• 17. Share of Hyperscale spending by company, 4Q25 and 4Q24 annualized (Capex: Network, IT and software)
• 18. Energy consumption vs. Net PP&E for key Hyperscalers in 2024
• 19. Hyperscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized Capex (US$B)
• 20. Hyperscale vs. Telco Market: Annualized capital intensity
• 21. USA: Hyperscale capex total ($M) and % of global market, 2011-25
• 22. China's Hyperscalers versus the big 4: Capex in 2025 ($B)
• 23. Chinese Hyperscale capex on the rise again ($M)
• 24. Hyperscale tech capex vs. DC-related chip revenues (annualized $M)
• 25. Hyperscale tech capex vs. Data center-related systems revenues (annualized $M)
• 26. Revenues: annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 27. Profitability (Net Profit; Cash from operations; Free cash flow): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 28. Spending (R&D; M&A; Capex; Network & IT capex; Lease): annual, single-quarter, and annualized (US$M)
• 29. Cash & Short-term Investments: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 30. Debt (Total debt; Net debt): annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 31. Property, Plant & Equipment: annual and single-quarter (US$M)
• 32. Key Ratios: Net margin; R&D/revenues; Capex/revenues; Network & IT capex/revenues; Free cash flow/revenues; Lease costs/revenues - annual and annualized (%)
• 33. Total employees
• 34. Revenue per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 35. FCF per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 36. Net PP&E per employee, annualized (US$K)
• 37. Revenues & Spending (US$M)
• 38. Revenues (US$M) & YoY revenue growth (%), single-quarter: by company
• 39. Revenues, annualized (US$M): by company
• 40. Annualized profitability margins: by company
• 41. Annualized capex and capital intensity: by company
• 42. Annualized capex and R&D spending as % of revenues: by company
• 43. Share of hyperscale network & IT capex, Annualized: by company
• 44. Total employees: by company
• 45. Annualized per-employee metrics (US$000s): by company
• 46. Net debt (debt minus cash & stock) (US$M): by company
• 47. Top 10 Hyperscale employers in 4Q25: Global market
• 48. Headcount changes in 4Q25 (YoY %): Global market
• 49. Net PP&E: USA vs. RoW (by company)
• 50. Net PP&E: total in $M and % global Hyperscale market (by company)
• 51. Energy consumption, MWh and % Hyperscale total (by company)
• 52. Share of Hyperscale energy consumption, net PP&E, and capex (by company)
• 53. Energy intensity relative to Hyperscale average and select data center-focused CNNOs (by company)
• 54. Energy intensity in Hyperscale sector, 2024: MWh consumed per $M in revenue
• 55. Capex/revenues (annualized): Company vs. Hyperscale average
• 56. Revenue per employee (US$000s) (annualized): Company vs. Hyperscale average
• 57. 2018 vs. 2025: company benchmark by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 58. 2018 vs. 2025: company benchmark by key ratio (Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 59. Top 8 Hyperscaler share vs. Rest of the market: by KPI (Revenues, R&D, Net profit, Cash from operations, Capex, Free cash flow, Cash & short-term investments, Net PP&E, Total debt)
• 60. Top 8 Hyperscalers benchmarking by Key (ratio: Capex/revenues; R&D/revenues; Net margin; FCF margin)
• 61. Total Hyperscaler Market Revenues, by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-25); Single quarter (4Q16-4Q25 )
• 62. Hyperscaler Market: Revenues, single-quarter (YoY % change)
• 63. Regional revenues by operator: Latest CY; Latest Quarter; Annual trend (2011-25); Single quarter (4Q16-4Q25)
• 64. Top 10 operators by region: Latest CY; Latest Quarter