美國電信資本支出下降，人工智慧巨擘成為焦點

美國仍是全球最大的電信市場，但預計2024年的電信資本支出將下降8%，至810億美元，2025年第一季的前景也較為疲軟。在政策不確定性、通膨擔憂以及新興的人工智慧泡沫的背景下，電信業者正將重點從投資轉向貨幣化。

本報告基於AT&T、Verizon、Charter、Comcast、T-Mobile (DT)、Lumen和Frontier等主要營運商2025年第一季的財務業績，分析了美國電信資本支出的近期前景。報告將目前的支出模式與過去的預測進行了比較，確定了影響投資決策的關鍵因素，並分析了供應商的影響以及人工智慧、大型語言模型(LLM)和資料中心等領域的新興趨勢。

截至2024年底，美國電信市場在全球電信業的佔比分別為27%和28%，電信資本支出為805億美元，營收為5,052億美元。 2022年至2023年，美國資本支出與收入比率（即資本密集度）將維持在17%至18%之間，遠高於歷史水準。 2024年，此比率將有所緩和，全年資本密集度將達到15.9%。根據2025年第一季的財報和其他數據，預計這一比率將進一步下降。美國電信公司正優先考慮資本節約和成本削減，並致力於將過往投資與收入掛鉤。經濟和政策的不確定性仍然很高，總統製造的貿易緊急狀態加劇了人們對通膨和經濟衰退的擔憂。

在電信業者節省資本支出的同時，資料中心市場龐大的投資泡沫卻顯得頗具諷刺意味。電信公司正努力吸引類似的投資者興趣。儘管如此，他們仍在探索其他途徑，從美國的人工智慧中獲利。雖然他們尚未完全駕馭生成式人工智慧的浪潮，但他們正在努力利用人工智慧技術來提高營運效率。

未來幾個季度，美國營運商的資本支出仍將受到嚴格限制。經濟成長放緩將損害電信收入。政府債務上升和關稅徵收將加劇通貨膨脹。赴美國際旅客減少和外國投資減少都會導致需求下降。此外，關稅可能導致某些用於建立網路的零件出現短缺和價格上漲。來自鄰近資料中心的投資激增，將使電信公司更難吸引和留住人才，從而推高勞動成本。然而，電信公司多年來一直在應對這些課題，這次很可能能夠安然度過。

調查對象

刊載組織

目錄

摘要

市場背景:美國

2025年第一季的業績

AT&T

Verizon

Comcast

Charter Communications

T-Mobile (DT)

Frontier Communications

Lumen Technologies (ex-CenturyLink)

Dish Network (EchoStar)

附錄

US is still world's biggest market but capex dipped 8% in 2024, to $81B, and 1Q25 guidance was weak; telcos shifting to monetization amidst policy uncertainty, inflation fears, and the generative AI bubble.

This brief examines the near-term outlook for telecom capital expenditures (capex) in the US, based on the 1Q25 earnings of key operators, including AT&T, Verizon, Charter, Comcast, T-Mobile (DT), Lumen, Frontier, and more. It analyzes how current spending patterns compare with previous forecasts, highlights the main forces shaping investment decisions, explores implications for vendors, and discusses trends in emerging areas such as AI, large language models (LLMs), and data centers.

The US market closed 2024 with $80.5 billion in telco capex and $505.2 billion in revenues, representing 27% and 28% of global industry totals, respectively. The USA's capex to revenue ratio, or capital intensity, was in the 17-18% range in 2022-23. That was well above historic levels. The ratio started to moderate in 2024. For full-year 2024, capital intensity was 15.9%. Based upon 1Q25 earnings calls and other datapoints, that will fall further. US telcos are looking to monetize recent investments, and more focused on conserving capital and cutting costs. Economic and policy uncertainty continues to be high, with inflation and recession fears stemming from the presidentially contrived trade emergency.

As telcos conserve capex, they must see irony in the massive investment bubble in the data center market. Telcos are struggling to attract the same investor interest. However, telcos are finding other ways to benefit from AI in the US. They aren't positioned well to ride the GenAI wave, but they are deploying AI-based technologies to deliver operational efficiency.

For instance:

• AT&T: using AI to improve call center automation, software development, and digital acquisition. The company says that investment in automation is helping offset labor costs and drive self-service efficiency across sales and support channels.
• Verizon: integrating AI into customer care and network ops; use cases include predictive maintenance, customer service automation, and internal process efficiencies.
• Comcast: AI is deployed across billing automation, network troubleshooting, and customer service, reducing truck rolls and call center loads. Machine learning models are used to predict customer churn and drive targeted promotions.
• Charter: has invested in AI for years, focused on frontline efficiency and self-service; it is reducing repair calls and truck rolls. Internal tools are used to optimize operations, enhance agent support, and reduce OPEX.
• DT/T-Mobile: AI is integral to DT's digital transformation, aiming at Euro-800 million in group cost savings by 2027. AI is used to optimize fiber rollouts, automate customer service (e.g., chatbots solving 50% of issues without humans), and remotely manage 75% of routers. DT says that AI supports operations across service, coding, sales, and mobile RAN monitoring.
• Lumen: Lumen is positioning itself as a backbone provider for the AI economy. Lumen Digital platform uses AI for automation and real-time network control.

Over the next few quarters, US telcos will remain tightly constrained on capex. Weaker economic growth will hit revenues. Rising government debt and tariffs will cause inflation to spike. Fewer international visitors to the US, less foreign investment, both lead to weaker demand. Tariffs may also cause shortages or high costs in certain component parts used in building networks. Labor costs will rise, as the surge in investment from an adjacent sector (data centers) will make it harder for telcos to keep their staff. But telcos have been wrestling with such issues for years, and they will survive this as well.

Research Coverage

Organizations mentioned:

Table of Contents

Summary

Market background - USA

1Q25 results

AT&T

Verizon

Comcast

Charter Communications

T-Mobile (DT)

Frontier Communications

Lumen Technologies (ex-CenturyLink)

Dish Network (EchoStar)

Appendix

List of Figures and Tables:

• Figure 1: Capex forecast for US telco market and recent changes
• Figure 2: Major capex spenders in US telco, CY24 versus 4Q24 ($M and % total)
• Table 1: Summary of US telcos' 2025 capex focus & forecast
• Figure 3: AT&T's total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 4: Verizon's total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 5: Comcast's total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 6: Charter Communications' total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 7: T-Mobile total corporate capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 8: Frontier capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 9: Lumen capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex
• Figure 10: Dish Network capex, capital intensity, and share of global capex