![]() |
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2066708
電動卡車:市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢與統計、成長預測(2026-2031)Electric Truck - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031) |
||||||
※ 本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。
根據 Mordor Intelligence 估計,2026 年電動卡車市場價值為 193.1 億美元,預計在預測期(2026-2031 年)內將以 30.15% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2031 年達到 721.1 億美元。

本報告按驅動方式(純電動車、燃料電池電動車、插電式混合動力車)、卡車類型(輕型、中型、重型、牽引車)、應用領域(物流、市政、建築、零售、公共產業)、續航里程、電池容量、馬達架構和地區進行細分。市場預測以價值(美元)和銷售(輛)兩種形式呈現。
近年來,電動卡車市場鋰離子電池組的價格大幅下降,預計未來將繼續下降,並在不久的將來與柴油牽引車的成本持平。這一價格下降主要得益於中國電池製造商,他們顯著提高了量產磷酸鋰鐵鋰(LFP)化學電池的能量密度。這縮短了都市區中型卡車車隊營運商的投資回收期,並大幅縮短了車輛更換週期(先前更換週期較長)。近期,總部位於加州的百事公司報告稱,其特斯拉Semi車隊的每英里能源成本與柴油8級牽引車相比顯著降低。此外,磷酸鐵鋰電池在新電動卡車電池容量市場中佔據了越來越大的佔有率,展現出更長的循環壽命和更低的生命週期資本密集度。
從2020年代末期開始,歐盟的「歐盟7」排放標準將大幅降低電動卡車市場重型車輛的氮排放。此外,歐盟也強制要求到21世紀中葉大幅降低車輛二氧化碳排放總量。在美國,環保署的「第三階段」法規要求汽車製造商確保在未來10年內,新售出的8級卡車中有相當一部分是零排放車輛。違反這些法規將導致每輛牽引車被處以巨額罰款。同時,在中國,「國六B」標準即將適用於所有超過一定重量限制的卡車。此外,到本世紀末,都市區貨運的二氧化碳排放也將受到嚴格限制。作為一項積極措施,沃爾沃集團報告稱,今年其在歐洲的卡車銷量中有相當一部分是零排放車輛,因為運輸公司正在加快步伐,以達到歐7排放標準的最後期限。除了監管環境之外,ISO 14083 規定的強制性範圍 3 報告進一步收緊了對公司採購決策的監管。
截至2026年初,全球電動卡車市場中兆瓦級充電系統(MCS)的運作數量仍然非常有限,遠落後於車輛部署速度。儘管戴姆勒-沃爾沃合資企業計劃在2027年前安裝大量高性能充電樁,但這僅能覆蓋主要貨運路線的一小部分。在美國,儘管聯邦政府的NEVI基金提供了大量資金,但由於授權程序延誤,截至2025年12月,僅有少數充電站投入運作。此外,倉庫的併網也造成了進一步的延誤。英國主要物流中心的併網存在嚴重的延誤。因此,承運商被迫超額配置電池組容量,導致單位成本大幅增加。
到2025年,純電動卡車將佔據55.61%的市場佔有率,這主要得益於都市區充電網路的成熟以及250公里/天的續航里程得到保障。美國計畫在2030年投資興建7個氫能中心和200個重型卡車加氫站,預計2031年,燃料電池平台的複合年成長率將達到30.17%。 2024年,尼古拉公司推出了幾款8級燃料電池牽引車,凸顯了市場對長續航里程車輛日益成長的需求。基礎設施有限的地區的營運商越來越傾向於選擇配備柴油備用動力的插電式混合動力汽車。特別是沃爾沃的FH Electric混合動力車型,除了柴油備用動力外,還提供了相當不錯的純電續航里程。儘管在加州,即使考慮了能源平價因素,氫氣價格仍然遠高於柴油,但由於電解槽成本的下降,預計到本世紀末氫氣價格將大幅下降。電動卡車的市場格局正在改變。電池在最後一公里配送中發揮主導作用,而氫能在長途運輸中正在建立自己的獨特市場。
推動氫能發展的因素也包括其他面向。歐洲運輸企業優先考慮快速加氫,以最佳化駕駛人的運作;即將訂定的二氧化碳排放法規可能會導致因電池重量過重而降低負載容量,從而面臨罰款。值得注意的是,戴姆勒的GenH2燃料電池原型車已成功完成大規模示範運行,預計將於2025年底完成,從而消除了人們對其耐久性的擔憂。同時,磷酸鋰鐵技術的進步正在鞏固電池組在短程、高運量路線上的優勢,確保電池式電動車在繁華的都市區繼續發揮重要作用。
2025年,電動卡車市場中,12噸以上的重型卡車銷量佔比達43.47%,預計到2031年將維持30.19%的複合年成長率。這是因為加州、紐約州和歐盟要求到2032年,8級卡車銷售中必須有40%至50%為零排放車輛。截至2025年底,戴姆勒的eActros 600電動卡車憑藉其大容量磷酸鋰電池組和出色的實際續航里程,已獲得大量預訂單。中型卡車平台也已與市政當局和都市區簽訂了貨運合約。 2025年,比亞迪在北美市場嶄露頭角,交付了大量車輛,並成功競標都市區廢棄物收集計畫。在輕型卡車領域,Rivian的EDV-700憑藉其在最後一公里配送方面的成本優勢,實現了長距離行駛中令人印象深刻的運轉率。雖然長途曳引機上安裝的大容量電池會因負載容量減少而顯著降低其載貨能力,但這種權衡被認為是可接受的,因為損失的負載容量可以通過綠色貨物溢價來彌補。
業內相關人員正將目光聚焦於專業應用領域的細分市場,將其視為下一個發展前沿。自動卸貨卡車、多用途底盤和消防車因其運作週期與現場充電完美契合而備受關注。同時,在牽引車-半拖車配置方面,兆瓦級充電技術創新正被積極探索,以最大限度地減少停機時間。重型卡車的普及速度很可能決定電動卡車市場向其他車型擴展的軌跡。
2025年,在歐盟二氧化碳排放框架下統一的合規政策和歐7排放標準的推動下,歐洲將佔據電動卡車市場36.77%的顯著佔有率。到當年年底,德國、法國和荷蘭在安裝高功率充電樁方面取得了顯著進展,確保了eActros 600和FH Electric等車型擁有充足的充電網路。在挪威,諸如免徵通行費和部分購車補貼等政策極大地促進了零排放卡車的普及,使其在新車註冊量中佔據了相當大的比例。相較之下,英國由於併網耗時較長,在實現倉庫電氣化方面面臨挑戰,儘管政府訂定了強力的獎勵,但大規模車隊的轉型進程仍然緩慢。
在亞太地區,電動卡車正憑藉中國的法規結構和補貼政策,在銷售上成為歐洲卡車的強勁競爭對手。日本對氫能基礎設施的大規模投資也推動了日野汽車的燃料電池研發計畫。同時,在印度,由於補貼政策的結束以及電動卡車的成本仍然遠高於柴油卡車,電動卡車的發展勢頭有所放緩。在澳大利亞,政府推出了多項舉措,資助建造充電站,並推動了州際貨運先導計畫。
北美地區正受惠於聯邦政府的獎勵以及各州層級的法規,這些法規要求在未來幾年內提高零排放卡車的銷售比例。特斯拉向各大公司交付電動卡車,凸顯了這些車輛在能源效率上的成本優勢。加拿大的財政獎勵也在推動電動卡車在主要物流路線的應用。預計到2031年,中東和非洲地區的電動卡車市場將以30.23%的複合年成長率成長,成為成長最快的地區,這主要得益於大規模的訂單以及各國政府為實現零排放商用車車隊目標而製定的宏偉計劃。在南非,儘管面臨擬議進口關稅的潛在挑戰,但電池驅動卡車仍在礦區進行試驗。在南美洲,政策差異正在影響市場。巴西的稅收推高了車輛價格,而智利對礦業車輛的財政援助則加速了該地區電動卡車的普及。
According to Mordor Intelligence, the electric truck market size is estimated at USD 19.31 billion in 2026, and is expected to reach USD 72.11 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 30.15% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Propulsion Type (BEV, FCEV, and PHEV), Truck Type (Light, Medium, Heavy, and Tractor-Trailer), Application (Logistics, Municipal, Construction, Retail, and Utility), Range, Battery Capacity, Motor Architecture, and Geography. Market Forecasts are in Value (USD) and Volume (Units).
In recent years, lithium-ion pack prices have significantly decreased in the electric truck market and are expected to continue declining, reaching cost parity with diesel tractors in the near future. Chinese cell manufacturers have driven this reduction, achieving notable advancements in energy density with high-volume LFP chemistries. Fleet operators are now experiencing faster payback periods on medium-duty urban routes, significantly shortening replacement cycles that were historically much longer. Recently, PepsiCo's operations in California reported substantially lower energy costs per mile for its Tesla Semi fleet compared to diesel Class 8 tractors. Additionally, LFP has captured a significant share of new electric truck battery capacity, demonstrating improved cycle life and reduced lifetime capital intensity.
Starting in the late 2020s, the European Union's Euro 7 limits will significantly reduce heavy-duty NOx emissions in the electric truck market. Additionally, the EU mandates a substantial reduction in fleet-wide CO2 emissions by mid-century . In the U.S., the EPA's Phase 3 rule requires OEMs to ensure a significant portion of new Class 8 sales are zero-emission within the next decade. Non-compliance comes with a hefty financial penalty per tractor. Meanwhile, in China, the National VI-b standards will apply to all trucks over a specific weight threshold starting in the near future . Furthermore, a stringent limit on urban freight CO2 emissions is set for the end of the decade. In a proactive move, Volvo Group reported selling a notable percentage of its trucks as zero-emission in Europe during the current year, as fleets rushed to meet the Euro 7 deadline. Adding to the regulatory landscape, mandatory Scope 3 reporting under ISO 14083 tightens the grip of regulations on corporate procurement decisions.
By early 2026, only a limited number of Megawatt Charging System (MCS) stations were operational globally in the electric truck market, lagging significantly behind the rollout of vehicles. The Daimler-Volvo joint venture plans to establish a significant number of high-performance charging points by 2027, but this will only service a small portion of the primary freight corridors. In the U.S., while federal NEVI funds allocated substantial financial resources, only a few charging sites became operational by December 2025, hindered by permitting delays. Additionally, interconnections at depots are causing further setbacks; National Grid ESO has indicated extensive wait times for connections at major logistics centers in the U.K. As a result, fleets are overspecifying their battery packs, significantly increasing unit costs.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Battery-electric trucks commanded a 55.61% share in 2025, underpinned by maturing urban charging networks and dependable 250 km daily cycles. Fuel-cell platforms are set for a 30.17% CAGR through 2031 as the United States funds seven hydrogen hubs with 200 heavy-truck stations planned by 2030. In 2024, Nikola rolled out several Class 8 fuel-cell tractors, highlighting a burgeoning demand for vehicles capable of extended-range duties. Operators in regions with limited infrastructure are gravitating towards plug-in hybrids, which offer a diesel backup. Notably, Volvo's FH Electric hybrid combines a moderate electric range with an additional diesel margin. While hydrogen prices in California remain significantly higher than diesel when adjusted for energy parity, declining electrolyzer costs hint at a potential substantial reduction by the end of the decade. The electric truck landscape is evolving, with batteries leading the charge in last-mile deliveries, while hydrogen is carving a niche in long-haul transport.
Secondary dynamics are bolstering hydrogen's rise. European transporters prioritize swift refueling to optimize driver hours, and looming CO2 regulations threaten penalties for payload reductions due to hefty batteries. In a significant move, Daimler's GenH2 fuel-cell prototype successfully completed an extensive pilot run in late 2025, addressing durability concerns. Concurrently, advancements in lithium-iron-phosphate technology are solidifying battery packs' dominance on high-volume routes with shorter distances, ensuring battery-electric vehicles remain pivotal in bustling urban settings.
Heavy-duty models above 12 tonnes represented 43.47% of revenue in 2025 in the electric truck market and will post a 30.19% CAGR through 2031 as California, New York, and the EU demand 40-50% zero-emission Class 8 sales by 2032. By late 2025, Daimler's eActros 600, equipped with a large-capacity LFP pack and boasting an extensive real-world range, garnered significant pre-orders. Platforms in the medium-duty range are securing municipal and urban freight contracts; in 2025, BYD made a mark in North America, delivering a substantial number of units and clinching city waste-collection tenders. Light trucks, benefiting from a cost edge in last-mile services, saw Rivian's EDV-700 achieve impressive uptime over an extensive distance. While the large-capacity batteries on long-haul tractors impose a noticeable reduction in capacity due to payload penalties, the trade-off is deemed acceptable as green-freight premiums compensate for the lost tonnage.
Industry players are eyeing vocational niches as the next frontier. Tipper bodies, utility chassis, and fire-service rigs are in the spotlight, due to their duty cycles syncing perfectly with depot charging. Meanwhile, tractor-trailer setups are pursuing megawatt charging innovations to minimize downtime. The pace of heavy-duty adoption is poised to dictate the trajectory of the electric truck market's expansion into other classes.
In 2025, Europe held a significant share of the electric truck market with 36.77%, supported by the unified compliance signals of Euro 7 and the EU's CO2 framework. By the end of the year, Germany, France, and the Netherlands had made substantial progress in installing high-power chargers, ensuring adequate coverage for models like the eActros 600 and FH Electric. Norway's policies, including toll exemptions and partial funding of purchase prices, significantly boosted the adoption of zero-emission trucks, which formed a notable portion of new registrations. In contrast, the U.K. faced challenges with depot electrification due to prolonged grid connection timelines, which slowed the transition for large fleets despite the availability of strong incentives.
Asia Pacific, driven by China's large-scale deployment of electric trucks under its regulatory framework and subsidy programs, is emerging as a strong competitor to Europe in terms of volume. Japan's substantial investment in hydrogen infrastructure supports Hino's fuel-cell development plans. Meanwhile, India's momentum slowed following the expiration of its subsidy program, as the cost of electric trucks remained significantly higher than diesel alternatives. In Australia, government initiatives funded the installation of depot chargers, facilitating pilot projects for interstate freight operations.
North America benefits from federal incentives and state-level regulations mandating a higher share of zero-emission truck sales in the coming years. Tesla's delivery of electric trucks to major corporations highlighted the cost advantages of these vehicles in terms of energy efficiency. Canada's financial incentives have also encouraged the deployment of electric trucks along key logistics routes. The Middle East and Africa logs the fastest 30.23% CAGR through 2031 in the electric truck market, driven by large-scale orders and ambitious government targets for zero-emission commercial fleets. South Africa is testing battery-powered trucks in mining operations, despite potential challenges from proposed import duties. In South America, policy differences are shaping the market: Brazil's tax policies have increased vehicle prices, while Chile's funding for mining fleets is accelerating adoption in the region.