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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2061528

自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）：市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢和統計數據、成長預測（2026-2031 年）

Autonomous (Driverless) Cars - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 170 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

根據 Mordor Intelligence 預測，自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）的市場規模預計將從 2025 年的 1772 億美元成長到 2026 年的 2205.8 億美元，到 2031 年達到 6563.7 億美元，預計在預測期（2026-2031 年達到 6563.7 億美元，預計在預測期內複合年成長率為 2026-2031 年）。

自動駕駛（無人駕駛）汽車市場-IMG1

本報告按自動化等級（1級、2級、3級以上）、車輛類型（掀背車、轎車、SUV、MPV）、驅動系統（內燃機、純電動、混合動力）、出行方式（私家車、共享出行）、組件（硬體、軟體、服務）和地區進行細分。市場預測以價值（美元）和銷售（輛）兩種形式呈現。

全球自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）市場趨勢及洞察

亞洲特大城市自動駕駛計程車試點計畫迅速擴張

2024年下半年，百度旗下的「Apollo Go」在中國多個城市的累積乘車次數均取得了顯著里程碑式的成績。同時，Waymo在鳳凰城和舊金山的每週付費乘車量也相當可觀。 2025年4月，東京修訂了《道路交通法》，為在特定區域推行L4級自動駕駛鋪平了道路。此舉之後，豐田和日產等主要汽車製造商加快了各自試點計畫的進度。 Waymo的單位經濟效益呈上升趨勢，平均乘車成本已降至具競爭力的水平。同時，百度宣布其在武漢的貢獻毛利將於2024年底轉正。此外，該地區地方政府比歐美政府更願意發放商業營運許可證，這將顯著加速其短期成長。

歐盟與中國關於ADAS核心安全法規的政府指令

歐盟於2024年7月實施了第2019/2144號法規，強制要求所有新乘用車安裝自動緊急煞車、智慧速度輔助、車道維持輔助和駕駛員監控系統。中國於2024年發布了GB/T 40429-2021標準，並在北京和深圳發放了多張L3級自動駕駛許可證。這使得在高速公路上實現無人駕駛成為短期內可實現的目標。日本、韓國和東南亞國協已採納聯合國第157號條例，推動亞洲各地法規的統一。法規的協調統一將增加對先進感測器的需求，降低單位成本，並縮短汽車製造商投資L3級系統的回報週期。

美國各州自動駕駛汽車法規的差異正在減緩其商業化的擴張。

由於美國沒有統一的聯邦框架統籌自動駕駛汽車，每家公司都必須遵守各州不同的法規。加州在發生一起行人被拖行的事故後吊銷了Cruise的營運許可證，亞利桑那州則限制了其在某些地區的商業服務。這種監管碎片化導致合規項目重疊，減緩了州際貨運自動化的進程，並造成短期成長率下降數個百分點。

細分市場分析

2025年，L1級駕駛輔助系統將佔自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）市場43.47%的佔有率。這個細分市場受益於強制性功能，例如自動緊急煞車和車道維持輔助，這些功能目前已成為歐洲和中國入門車型的標準配備。 L3級有條件自動駕駛正向高階車型擴展，並已獲得內華達州、加州、德國和日本的監管部門批准。賓士的「駕駛輔助系統」（Drive Pilot）在2024年累積行駛里程達到200萬英里，BMW計畫在2026年推出「高速公路輔助系統」（Highway Assistant）。這一細分市場的轉型顯示硬體的商品化和訂閱式軟體的商業化趨勢。

隨著武漢、鳳凰城和東京等地無人駕駛計程車服務區域的擴展，預計到2031年，L5級全自動駕駛將以24.39%的複合年成長率成長。在自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）市場，營運商透過高日運轉率攤銷感測器陣列的成本，並將固定資產轉化為收入來源，每天運行時間長達18小時。 L4級自動駕駛技術在中程貨運和接駁車服務的應用，證明了其在地理圍欄區域內的商業性可行性。 L3級車輛的訂閱模式展現了持續獲利的潛力，而L5級車隊正在重新定義城市交通的經濟格局。

預計到2025年，SUV和MPV將佔據自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）市場78.81%的佔有率。這是因為這些車型較高的車頂和前臉設計為安裝LiDAR、雷達和攝影機陣列提供了充足的空間，而不會影響車輛外觀。 Waymo的捷豹I-PACE和百度的Apollo Moon都採用了SUV的造型，從而實現了寬敞的感測器佈局。在自動駕駛汽車市場，乘客容量和感測器散熱將是重要的考量因素，這很可能使SUV繼續保持其主導地位。

隨著固態雷射雷達尺寸縮小至不足10厘米，其計算單元可安裝在緊湊型儀錶板下方，預計到2031年，掀背車的年複合成長率將達到25.11%。汽車製造商可以將自動駕駛技術引入量產的B級車平台，在亞洲人口稠密的都市區，緊湊的車身尺寸便於車輛在路邊停靠，因此更受青睞。轎車在空氣動力學性能和電池效率對長途駕駛至關重要的場景中仍將扮演重要角色，例如特斯拉Model S和Lucid Air的推出。

區域分析

預計到2025年，北美將佔據自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）市場38.71%的佔有率。 Waymo在美國四個城市每週提供超過10萬次乘車服務，特斯拉也已在其監督式全自動駕駛項目中註冊了大量車輛。儘管加州吊銷了Cruise的營運許可，但監管方面的不一致仍然是一大障礙。然而，聯邦政府對V2X路側設備的投入正在推動州際公路走廊上自動駕駛貨運的部署。在加拿大，安大略省和魁北克省獲準進行L4級自動駕駛試驗，無需安全駕駛人，但由於車輛數量有限，短期部署規模也將受到限制。

預計到2031年，亞太地區的複合年成長率將達到25.05%。百度Apollo Go的出遊次數已突破600萬次，Pony.ai和AutoX已在北京、廣州和深圳擴大了車隊規模。日本道路交通法的修訂允許L4級自動駕駛車輛在地理圍欄區域內運行，這使得豐田在東京台場的試點計畫和日產在橫濱的測試得以開展。印度仍處於起步階段，正在不斷提高高精度地圖的密度並建立清晰的法規結構，而韓國已批准世宗市的專用車道上L4級自動駕駛公車運行。

在歐洲，車輛正受惠於強制標配L2級自動駕駛功能的一般安全法規。賓士於2024年在德國推出了「Drive Pilot」自動駕駛系統，隨後在內華達州和加州進行部署。 BMW的目標是在2026年推出L3級自動駕駛系統。有關車輛脫碳的法規正在加速自動駕駛電動卡車的普及。 Einride已在德國、荷蘭和瑞典部署了200輛無人駕駛卡車，沃爾沃也推出了用於港口擺渡車的「Vera」系統。一些小眾服務正在南美洲和中東進行試點，但由於缺乏高精度地圖和法規不完善，其廣泛應用仍受到阻礙。

其他好處：

  • Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
  • 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章：引言

  • 研究假設和市場定義
  • 調查範圍

第2章：調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場狀況

  • 市場概覽
  • 市場促進因素
    • 亞洲主要城市自動駕駛計程車試點計畫迅速擴展
    • 歐盟和中國政府關於安全法規（主要是ADAS）的強制規定。
    • LiDAR和人工智慧計算成本的降低將使L3系統得以在市場上廣泛部署。
    • 在北美貨運網路中部署 5G-V2X 走廊
    • 用於實現車載邊緣人工智慧的低功耗汽車SoC
    • 歐洲的車隊脫碳目標正加速採用自動駕駛的中程物流技術。
  • 市場限制因素
    • 美國各州自動駕駛汽車法規的差異正在減緩其商業化的擴張。
    • 中國發生的多起備受矚目的無人駕駛計程車事故加劇了大眾的不信任感。
    • 汽車人工智慧晶片供不應求以及晶圓廠產能受限
    • 新興市場高精度地圖的維修成本
  • 價值供應鏈分析
  • 監理情勢
  • 技術展望
  • 波特五力模型

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

  • 按自動化級別
    • 一級 - 駕駛輔助
    • 二級 - 部分自動化
    • 第三級 - 條件自動化
    • 4級 - 高級自動化
    • 5級 - 全自動
  • 車輛類型
    • 掀背車
    • 轎車
    • 運動型多用途車（SUV）和多用途車（MPV）
  • 依推進類型
    • 內燃機（ICE）
    • 電池式電動車（BEV）
    • 混合動力電動車（HEV）
  • 依行程類型分類
    • 個人所有
    • 共乘（無人駕駛計程車、接駁車）
  • 按組件
    • 硬體
      • 感測器（LiDAR、雷達、攝影機、超音波、慣性測量單元）
      • 運算平台（SoC、GPU）
      • 執行器和控制系統
    • 軟體
      • 感知與規劃套件
      • 地圖和定位引擎
      • 駕駛員監控和人機介面
    • 服務
      • 整合與檢驗
      • 遠端控制和遙操作
  • 按地區
    • 北美洲
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 其他北美國家
    • 南美洲
      • 巴西
      • 阿根廷
      • 其他南美國家
    • 歐洲
      • 德國
      • 英國
      • 法國
      • 義大利
      • 西班牙
      • 其他歐洲國家
    • 亞太地區
      • 中國
      • 印度
      • 日本
      • 韓國
      • 其他亞太國家
    • 中東和非洲
      • 阿拉伯聯合大公國
      • 沙烏地阿拉伯
      • 南非
      • 土耳其
      • 其他中東和非洲國家

第6章 競爭情勢

  • 市場集中度
  • 策略趨勢
  • 市佔率分析
  • 公司簡介
    • Waymo LLC
    • Tesla, Inc.
    • General Motors Co.（Cruise LLC）
    • Baidu Inc.（Apollo）
    • Toyota Motor Corporation
    • Volkswagen AG
    • Mercedes-Benz Group AG
    • BMW AG
    • Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.
    • AB Volvo
    • Hyundai Motor Group
    • BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
    • Pony.ai Inc.
    • AutoX Inc.
    • Uber Technologies Inc.
    • Aptiv PLC
    • Mobileye Global Inc.
    • NVIDIA Corporation
    • Magna International Inc.
    • Continental AG

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

簡介目錄
Product Code: 50963

According to Mordor Intelligence, the autonomous (driverless) cars market size is expected to grow from USD 177.20 billion in 2025 to USD 220.58 billion in 2026, and is forecast to reach USD 656.37 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 24.37% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

Autonomous (Driverless) Cars - Market - IMG1

This report is Segmented by Level of Automation (Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, and More), Vehicle Type (Hatchbacks, Sedans, and SUVs and MPVs), Propulsion Type (ICE, BEV, and HEV), Mobility Form (Personal Ownership and Shared Mobility), Component (Hardware, Software, and Services), and Geography. Market Forecasts are Provided in Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Global Autonomous (Driverless) Cars Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Expansion of Robo-Taxi Pilots across Asian Mega-Cities

In late 2024, Baidu's Apollo Go achieved a significant milestone of cumulative rides across multiple cities in China. Meanwhile, Waymo was recording a substantial number of paid rides weekly in both Phoenix and San Francisco. In April 2025, Tokyo revised its Road Traffic Act, paving the way for Level 4 operations in specific districts. This move prompted automotive giants Toyota and Nissan to hasten their pilot schedules. Waymo's unit economics are on the upswing, with the company's average ride cost dropping to a competitive level. Concurrently, Baidu celebrated achieving positive contribution margins in Wuhan by the end of 2024. Furthermore, municipalities in the region are more amenable to issuing commercial licenses than their Western counterparts, resulting in a notable near-term growth boost.

Government Mandates for ADAS-Centric Safety Regulations in the EU and China

The European Union enforced Regulation 2019/2144 in July 2024, obligating all new passenger vehicles to include autonomous emergency braking, intelligent speed assistance, lane-keeping assist, and driver monitoring systems . China released GB/T 40429-2021 and granted multiple Level 3 permits in Beijing and Shenzhen during 2024, setting hands-free highway operation as an attainable near-term goal . Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN states have adopted UN Regulation 157, creating a contiguous regulatory pull across Asia. The shared compliance calendar increases volume for advanced sensors, reduces per-unit cost, and shortens payback periods for automakers that invest in Level 3 systems.

Patchwork State-Level AV Regulations in the United States Delay Commercial Scale

There is no single federal framework governing autonomous vehicles in the United States; therefore, companies must navigate unique rules in each state. California revoked Cruise permits after a pedestrian-dragging event, and Arizona limited commercial services in certain municipalities. This fragmentation leads to duplicative compliance programs and slows interstate freight automation, resulting in a few percentage points of reduced near-term growth.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Falling LiDAR and AI Compute Costs Unlocking Mass-Market Level 3 Launches
  2. 5G-V2X Corridor Roll-Outs in North American Freight Networks
  3. Public Mistrust Intensified by High-Profile Robotaxi Incidents

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Level 1 driver assistance captured 43.47% of the autonomous (driverless) cars market share in 2025. The segment benefits from mandatory features, such as autonomous emergency braking and lane-keeping assist, which are now standard in entry trims across Europe and China. Level 3 conditional automation is being scaled in premium models following regulatory approvals in Nevada, California, Germany, and Japan. Mercedes-Benz logged 2 million miles on Drive Pilot during 2024, and BMW plans to deploy Highway Assistant in 2026. The segment transition indicates hardware commoditization and the monetization of subscription software.

Level 5 full automation is projected to grow at a 24.39% CAGR through 2031, as robo-taxi fleets in Wuhan, Phoenix, and Tokyo enlarge service areas. The autonomous (driverless) cars market observes operators amortizing sensor suites across high daily utilization, turning fixed assets into revenue generators for up to 18 hours per day. Level 4 deployments in middle-mile freight and shuttle services demonstrate commercial viability in geo-fenced zones. Subscription models in Level 3 vehicles signal recurring revenue potential, while Level 5 fleets redefine the economics of urban mobility.

SUVs and MPVs held 78.81% of the autonomous (driverless) cars market share in 2025 because their larger rooflines and front fascias can comfortably house LiDAR, radar, and camera arrays without aesthetic trade-offs. Waymo's Jaguar I-PACE and Baidu's Apollo Moon rely on sport-utility form factors for roomy sensor placement. The autonomous (driverless) cars market will retain SUV dominance, where passenger capacity and sensor heat dissipation are key considerations.

Hatchbacks are forecast to expand at a 25.11% CAGR to 2031 as solid-state LiDAR shrinks below 10 centimeters and compute units fit under compact dashboards. Automakers can bring autonomy to high-volume B-segment platforms, and dense Asian cities favor compact dimensions for easier curb access. Sedans remain relevant where long-range aerodynamics and battery efficiency are essential, as seen in the Tesla Model S and Lucid Air deployments.

Geography Analysis

North America generated 38.71% of the autonomous (driverless) cars market share in 2025. Waymo operated more than a lakh weekly rides across four United States cities, and Tesla enrolled multiple vehicles in its supervised Full Self-Driving program. Regulatory fragmentation remains a hurdle after California revoked Cruise's permits; however, federal spending on V2X roadside units supports autonomous freight deployment on interstate corridors. Canada allows Level 4 testing without safety drivers in Ontario and Quebec, but its smaller addressable fleet tempers near-term volume.

Asia Pacific is projected to register a 25.05% CAGR through 2031. Baidu Apollo Go crossed the 6 million ride milestone, and Pony.ai plus AutoX expanded fleets in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Japan's Road Traffic Act revision allows Level 4 vehicles to operate within geofenced districts, enabling Toyota's pilots in Tokyo's Odaiba and Nissan's trials in Yokohama. India remains nascent until HD mapping density improves and a clear regulatory framework emerges, while South Korea grants Level 4 permits for autonomous buses on dedicated lanes in Sejong City.

Europe benefits from the General Safety Regulation that mandates Level 2 features as standard. Mercedes-Benz launched Drive Pilot in Germany in 2024, followed by Nevada and California. BMW targets a Level 3 rollout by 2026. Fleet decarbonization rules are accelerating the adoption of autonomous electric trucks. Einride has deployed 200 driverless trucks across Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, while Volvo introduced the Vera system for port shuttles. South America and the Middle East pilot niche services, yet sparse HD maps and evolving rules delay broader scale.

  1. Waymo LLC
  2. Tesla, Inc.
  3. General Motors Co. (Cruise LLC)
  4. Baidu Inc. (Apollo)
  5. Toyota Motor Corporation
  6. Volkswagen AG
  7. Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  8. BMW AG
  9. Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.
  10. AB Volvo
  11. Hyundai Motor Group
  12. BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
  13. Pony.ai Inc.
  14. AutoX Inc.
  15. Uber Technologies Inc.
  16. Aptiv PLC
  17. Mobileye Global Inc.
  18. NVIDIA Corporation
  19. Magna International Inc.
  20. Continental AG

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rapid Expansion of Robo-Taxi Pilots across Asian Mega-Cities
    • 4.2.2 Government Mandates for ADAS-Centric Safety Regulations in the EU and China
    • 4.2.3 Falling LiDAR and AI Compute Costs Unlocking Mass-Market L3 Launches
    • 4.2.4 5G-V2X Corridor Roll-outs in North American Freight Networks
    • 4.2.5 Power-Efficient Automotive SoCs Enabling In-Vehicle Edge AI
    • 4.2.6 Fleet Decarbonization Targets Accelerating Autonomous Middle-Mile Logistics in Europe
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Patchwork State-Level AV Regulations in the United States Delay Commercial Scale
    • 4.3.2 Public Mistrust Intensified by High-Profile Robotaxi Incidents in China
    • 4.3.3 Automotive-Grade AI Chip Shortages and Fab Capacity Constraints
    • 4.3.4 High-Definition Map Maintenance Costs in Emerging Markets
  • 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

  • 5.1 By Level of Automation
    • 5.1.1 Level 1- Driver Assistance
    • 5.1.2 Level 2 - Partial Automation
    • 5.1.3 Level 3 - Conditional Automation
    • 5.1.4 Level 4 - High Automation
    • 5.1.5 Level 5 - Full Automation
  • 5.2 By Vehicle Type
    • 5.2.1 Hatchbacks
    • 5.2.2 Sedans
    • 5.2.3 Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) and Multi-Purpose Vehicles (MPVs)
  • 5.3 By Propulsion Type
    • 5.3.1 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
    • 5.3.2 Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)
    • 5.3.3 Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)
  • 5.4 By Mobility Form
    • 5.4.1 Personal Ownership
    • 5.4.2 Shared Mobility (Robo-Taxi, Shuttle)
  • 5.5 By Component
    • 5.5.1 Hardware
      • 5.5.1.1 Sensors (LiDAR, RADAR, Cameras, Ultrasonic, IMU)
      • 5.5.1.2 Computing Platforms (SoCs, GPUs)
      • 5.5.1.3 Actuators and Control Systems
    • 5.5.2 Software
      • 5.5.2.1 Perception and Planning Suites
      • 5.5.2.2 Mapping and Localization Engines
      • 5.5.2.3 Driver Monitoring and HMI
    • 5.5.3 Services
      • 5.5.3.1 Integration and Validation
      • 5.5.3.2 Remote Operation and Tele-operation
  • 5.6 By Geography
    • 5.6.1 North America
      • 5.6.1.1 United States
      • 5.6.1.2 Canada
      • 5.6.1.3 Rest of North America
    • 5.6.2 South America
      • 5.6.2.1 Brazil
      • 5.6.2.2 Argentina
      • 5.6.2.3 Rest of South America
    • 5.6.3 Europe
      • 5.6.3.1 Germany
      • 5.6.3.2 United Kingdom
      • 5.6.3.3 France
      • 5.6.3.4 Italy
      • 5.6.3.5 Spain
      • 5.6.3.6 Rest of Europe
    • 5.6.4 Asia Pacific
      • 5.6.4.1 China
      • 5.6.4.2 India
      • 5.6.4.3 Japan
      • 5.6.4.4 South Korea
      • 5.6.4.5 Rest of Asia Pacific
    • 5.6.5 Middle East and Africa
      • 5.6.5.1 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.6.5.2 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.6.5.3 South Africa
      • 5.6.5.4 Turkey
      • 5.6.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Waymo LLC
    • 6.4.2 Tesla, Inc.
    • 6.4.3 General Motors Co. (Cruise LLC)
    • 6.4.4 Baidu Inc. (Apollo)
    • 6.4.5 Toyota Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.6 Volkswagen AG
    • 6.4.7 Mercedes-Benz Group AG
    • 6.4.8 BMW AG
    • 6.4.9 Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.
    • 6.4.10 AB Volvo
    • 6.4.11 Hyundai Motor Group
    • 6.4.12 BYD Auto Co., Ltd.
    • 6.4.13 Pony.ai Inc.
    • 6.4.14 AutoX Inc.
    • 6.4.15 Uber Technologies Inc.
    • 6.4.16 Aptiv PLC
    • 6.4.17 Mobileye Global Inc.
    • 6.4.18 NVIDIA Corporation
    • 6.4.19 Magna International Inc.
    • 6.4.20 Continental AG

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment