印尼太陽能市場：市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢與統計、成長預測（2026-2031）

預計印尼太陽能市場將從 2025 年的 2.15 吉瓦成長到 2026 年的 2.97 吉瓦，到 2031 年達到 14.91 吉瓦，2026 年至 2031 年的複合年成長率為 38.10%。

這一成長軌跡得益於雅加達政府削減柴油補貼、政策轉向大規模太陽能發電和分散式太陽能發電系統、推出5746吉瓦屋頂太陽能發電框架，以及印尼國家電力公司（PLN）承諾在其2025-2034年電力供應計畫（RUPTL）中安裝17.1吉瓦太陽能發電。這些因素表明，資本正從燃煤發電領域進行決定性重新配置。到了2024年，組件平均售價下降約50%，運輸成本也趨於正常化。印尼的EPC競標也始終滿足PLN每千瓦時1200印尼幣的電價上限，使得印尼陽光充足的省份的太陽能市場價格低於市電平價。隨著爪哇島和巴淡島的RE100製造商簽署了為期20年的屋頂光伏發電契約，企業可再生能源購電協議（RE-PPA）數量激增。這些合約保證了範圍2的排放排量和長期的價格穩定。儘管面臨電網吸收能力和外匯風險，但大型開發商仍受到207吉瓦技術潛力、200億美元的爪哇-東帝汶電力計劃（JETP）承諾以及2022年第112號總統令下監管規定的吸引，計劃在爪哇島、蘇門答臘島和蘇拉威西島外匯計劃。

印尼太陽能市場趨勢與洞察

政府屋頂獎勵加速去中心化應用

能源和礦產資源部 (MEMR) 第 2/2024 號條例終止了淨計量電價機制，並以 5.746 吉瓦的配額制取代。該條例明確了併網規則，保障了印尼國家電力公司 (PLN) 的收入，同時保留了商業系統的稅收優惠。雅加達省長第 38/2024 號法令強制要求新建面積超過 500 平方公尺的商業建築安裝屋頂太陽能光電系統。該法令同樣適用於西爪哇和峇裡島。配額制與此相結合，建構了一個透明的能源供應管道，為開發商提供了清晰的商業前景，直至 2028 年。該制度限制了剩餘發電量的配額上限，並鼓勵居民自用，同時允許建造能夠吸收白天發電量的大規模商業設施。開發商正在加快設計進度，以便儘早鎖定配額，他們預計在 2027 年住宅市場重新開放時，監管框架將會更加嚴格。同時，地方政府的處罰和許可獎勵正在加強合規性，從而擴大印尼人口稠密都市區的太陽能市場。

組件平均售價下降導致平準化能源成本低於市電平價。

多晶矽現貨價格從2023年的每公斤30美元跌至2024年第四季的每公斤8美元，晶體矽組件的平均售價（ASP）也因此減半。這使得印尼國家電力公司（PLN）近期競標中的EPC競標低至每印尼幣1050印尼盾。標準化的運費進一步降低了中國一級組件的到岸成本15-20%，使得東努沙登加拉和南加里曼丹的平準化度電成本（LCOE）低於燃煤發電的基準水準。為此，開發商提交的提案電協議（PPA）數量已超過PLN計畫在2025-2034年間實現的17.1吉瓦太陽能裝置容量。然而，由於製造商持續清理高成本庫存，利潤率壓力仍然存在，迫使印尼企業對沖訂單時間風險。根據期貨曲線，如果中國工廠的運轉率維持在每年 600 吉瓦以上，預計到 2026 年，印尼的太陽能市場將受益於低於 70 美元/千瓦時的收費系統。

強制性國內貿易往來（TKDN）可改善計劃經濟效益。

儘管印尼能源和礦產資源部 (MEMR) 第 191/2024 號法令將國內可轉換配額 (TKDN) 門檻降低至 20%，但由於國內多晶矽和晶圓工廠數量不足，開發商仍面臨 12% 至 18% 的更高工程總承包 (EPC) 成本。 PT Len Industri 公司的 600MW 生產線仍是唯一符合規定的主要供應來源，但交貨週期長達九個月。這迫使公用事業規模的開發商重新談判購電協議 (PPA) 的時間表，或接受部分進口罰款。印尼國家電力公司 (PLN) 仍然不願提高關稅，導致利潤空間壓縮，並波及整個供應鏈。目前，一些獨立發電商 (IPP) 正在從國內供應商批量採購系統平衡設備，以超過 20% 的閾值，但審核可能會使商業營運證書的發放延遲長達 90 天。除非新的吉瓦級工廠在 2027 年前開始商業運營，否則 TKDN 規則將繼續阻礙印尼太陽能市場的發展。

細分市場分析

預計到2025年，太陽能光電發電將佔印尼太陽能市場的100%，並在2031年之前以38.10%的複合年成長率成長。由於印尼大部分地區的太陽輻射量（直接法向輻射，DNI）僅為1400-1600千瓦時/平方米，遠低於商業性太陽熱能發電（CSP）保持競爭力所需的2000千瓦時/平方米的閾值，因此CSP在商業上仍然不可行。由於CSP的高成本4000-6000美元/千瓦，而光伏發電的成本僅為800-1200美元/千瓦，投資者正將資金集中投入晶體矽組件。在土地資源有限的爪哇島，開發商為了提高10-15%的發電量，預計到2024年，雙面組件和拓普康（TOPCon）組件將佔進口總量的60%。儘管價格受到壓縮，但符合 IEC 61215 和 IEC 61730 標準保證了融資可行性，進一步鞏固了光伏發電在印尼太陽能市場的主導地位。

第二代電池技術透過在固定配額下降低額定功率輸出，加速了發電成長並降低了棄光風險。隆基和天合光能預計在2024年分別交付超過500兆瓦的雙面組件，主要用於浮體式太陽能電站和柴油熱電聯產專案。隨著組件能量密度的提高，開發商預計到2027年，土地需求將減少7%，這將有助於降低爪哇島農村地區的社區接受度，同時也將提高計劃的內部收益率（IRR）。

印尼太陽能市場報告按技術（光伏和聚光型太陽熱能發電）、併網類型（併網和離網）以及最終用戶（大型企業、商業/工業和住宅）進行細分。市場規模和預測以裝置容量（吉瓦）為單位。

其他福利：

• Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
• 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章 引言

• 研究假設和市場定義
• 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場情勢

• 市場概覽
• 市場促進因素
  • 加強政府對屋頂淨計量電價的獎勵措施（2023年）
  • 全球模組平均售價（ASP）和運輸成本下降
  • RE100成員製造商對企業可再生能源購電協議的需求
  • 在離島上改用柴油混合動力發電可以減輕PLN的補貼負擔。
  • 雅加達及各省的屋頂安裝義務法規
  • 蘇拉威西鎳冶煉廠的自發電需求
• 市場限制
  • 40% 國內貿易經銷 (TKDN) 法規推高成本
  • 電網吸收配額和輸出削減風險
  • 缺乏國家對浮體式太陽能購電協議的擔保
  • 獨立發電公司印尼盾兌外匯對沖成本上升
• 供應鏈分析
• 監管環境
• 技術展望
• 波特五力模型
  • 新進入者的威脅
  • 供應商的議價能力
  • 買方的議價能力
  • 替代品的威脅
  • 產業間競爭
• PESTEL 分析

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

• 透過技術
  • 光伏（PV）
  • 聚光型太陽熱能發電（CSP）
• 按網格類型
  • 併網
  • 離網
• 最終用戶
  • 實用規模
  • 商業和工業（C&I）
  • 住宅
• 按成分（定性分析）
  • 光學模組/面板
  • 逆變器（組串式、集中式、微型）
  • 安裝和追蹤系統
  • 系統周邊設備和電氣設備
  • 儲能和混合整合

第6章 競爭情勢

• 市場集中度
• 策略性舉措（併購、夥伴關係、購電協議）
• 市場佔有率分析（主要企業的市場排名和佔有率）
• 公司簡介
  • PT Surya Utama Nuansa（SUN Energy）
  • PT TotalEnergies Eren Indonesia
  • PT Sumber Energi Sukses Makmur（SES）
  • PT Sumber Energi Surya Nusantara（SESNA）
  • PT Solardex Energy Indonesia
  • Canadian Solar Inc.
  • Trina Solar Co. Ltd.
  • LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
  • First Solar Inc.
  • JA Solar Technology Co. Ltd.
  • Risen Energy Co. Ltd.
  • PT Len Industri（Persero）
  • PT PLN Nusantara Power
  • Akuo Energy Indonesia
  • ACWA Power Indonesia
  • Vena Energy Indonesia
  • Masdar Indonesia
  • PT Xurya Daya Indonesia
  • Enernet Global Indonesia

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

The Indonesia Solar Energy Market is expected to grow from 2.15 gigawatt in 2025 to 2.97 gigawatt in 2026 and is forecast to reach 14.91 gigawatt by 2031 at 38.10% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Jakarta's pivot from diesel subsidies toward grid-scale and distributed photovoltaic systems, the 5.746 GW rooftop quota framework, and PLN's commitment to 17.1 GW of solar capacity in its RUPTL 2025-2034 blueprint, together underpin this growth trajectory, signaling a decisive reallocation of capital away from coal baseload. Module average selling prices fell nearly 50% during 2024, shipping costs normalized, and Indonesian EPC bidders routinely met PLN's ceiling tariff of IDR 1,200 per kWh, which pushed the Indonesian solar energy market below grid-parity levels in high-irradiance provinces. Corporate renewable-power purchase agreements (RE-PPAs) surged as RE100 manufacturers in Java and Batam locked in twenty-year rooftop contracts that guarantee Scope 2 abatement and long-term price certainty. Utility-scale developers attracted by the archipelago's 207 GW technical potential, the USD 20 billion JETP commitment, and regulatory clarity under Presidential Regulation 112/2022 are queueing projects in Java, Sumatra, and Sulawesi despite grid-absorption quotas and foreign-exchange risks.

Indonesia Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Government Rooftop Incentives Accelerate Distributed Adoption

MEMR Regulation 2/2024 ended net-metering and replaced it with a 5.746 GW quota, clarifying interconnection rules and protecting PLN revenues while sustaining tax allowances for commercial systems. Jakarta's Governor Regulation 38/2024 now obliges the installation of rooftop solar on new commercial buildings exceeding 500 m2, a mandate mirrored in West Java and Bali. Together with the quota, this delivers a transparent pipeline that boosts developer visibility until 2028. The mechanism caps excess-generation credits, steering households toward self-consumption yet unlocking larger corporate installations that can absorb daytime output. Developers have accelerated engineering timelines to secure quota allocations early, anticipating tighter windows once the residential segment restarts in 2027. At the same time, municipal fines and permitting incentives ensure higher compliance, thereby expanding the Indonesian solar energy market in densely populated urban districts.

Module ASP Declines Compress Levelized Costs Below Grid Parity

Polysilicon spot prices declined from USD 30/kg in 2023 to USD 8/kg by Q4 2024, halving crystalline-silicon module ASPs and enabling EPC bids as low as IDR 1,050 per kWh in recent PLN tenders. Normalized freight rates shaved another 15-20% off landed costs for Chinese Tier-1 modules, pushing levelized electricity costs beneath coal benchmarks in East Nusa Tenggara and South Kalimantan. Developers responded by lodging unsolicited PPA proposals that already exceed PLN's 17.1 GW solar allocation for 2025-2034. Yet margin pressure remains as manufacturers offload high-priced inventory, compelling Indonesian firms to hedge order timing. Forward curves indicate that if Chinese factory utilization stays above 600 GW annually, the Indonesian solar energy market will benefit from sub-USD 0.07 kWh tariffs through 2026.

TKDN Local-Content Mandate Elevates Project Economics

MEMR Decree 191/2024 trimmed the TKDN threshold to 20%, yet developers still face 12-18% higher EPC costs because Indonesia lacks polysilicon and wafer plants, leaving PT Len Industri's 600 MW line as the chief compliant source. Queue times stretch to nine months, compelling utility-scale sponsors to renegotiate PPA schedules or accept partial-import penalties. PLN remains reluctant to uplift tariffs, forcing margin compression that cascades through the supply chain. Several IPPs now bundle balance-of-system gear from domestic suppliers to surpass the 20% threshold, although audits can delay commercial-operation certificates by up to 90 days. Unless new gigawatt-scale factories reach commercial operation before 2027, the TKDN rule will continue to hinder the Indonesian solar energy market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. RE100 Corporate Commitments Drive C&I PPA Volume
2. Diesel Displacement in Eastern Archipelago Eases Fiscal Strain
3. Grid-Absorption Constraints Trigger Curtailment Incidents

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Solar PV accounted for 100.00% of the Indonesian solar energy market size in 2025 and is forecast to advance at a 38.10% CAGR through 2031. CSP remains commercially unviable because most Indonesian sites record 1,400-1,600 kWh/m2 DNI, which is well below the 2,000 kWh/m2 threshold that CSP needs to remain competitive. PV capex of USD 800-1,200 kW undercuts CSP's USD 4,000-6,000 kW, so investors concentrate capital on crystalline-silicon routes. Bifacial and TOPCon modules captured 60% of 2024 imports as developers chase 10-15% yield gains in land-constrained Java. Compliance with IEC 61215 and IEC 61730 standards upholds bankability despite price compression, further reinforcing PV's exclusive status in the Indonesian solar energy market.

Second-generation cell technologies accelerate yield improvements, mitigating curtailment risks by enabling lower nameplate sizing for fixed quotas. LONGi and Trina each delivered over 500 MW of bifacial shipments in 2024, primarily for floating PV and hybrid diesel sites. As module energy density rises, developers forecast a 7% drop in land requirements by 2027, alleviating community-acceptance barriers in peri-urban Java while bolstering project IRRs.

The Indonesia Solar Energy Market Report is Segmented by Technology (Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power), Grid Type (On-Grid and Off-Grid), and End-User (Utility-Scale, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. PT Surya Utama Nuansa (SUN Energy)
2. PT TotalEnergies Eren Indonesia
3. PT Sumber Energi Sukses Makmur (SES)
4. PT Sumber Energi Surya Nusantara (SESNA)
5. PT Solardex Energy Indonesia
6. Canadian Solar Inc.
7. Trina Solar Co. Ltd.
8. LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
9. First Solar Inc.
10. JA Solar Technology Co. Ltd.
11. Risen Energy Co. Ltd.
12. PT Len Industri (Persero)
13. PT PLN Nusantara Power
14. Akuo Energy Indonesia
15. ACWA Power Indonesia
16. Vena Energy Indonesia
17. Masdar Indonesia
18. PT Xurya Daya Indonesia
19. Enernet Global Indonesia

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Government rooftop-net-metering incentives strengthened (2023)
  • 4.2.2 Declining global module ASPs and shipping costs
  • 4.2.3 Corporate RE-PPA demand from RE100 manufacturers
  • 4.2.4 Diesel-hybrid swaps on remote islands cut PLN subsidy burden
  • 4.2.5 Jakarta & provincial mandatory-rooftop by-laws
  • 4.2.6 Sulawesi nickel-smelter self-generation requirement
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 40 % TKDN local-content rule inflates costs
  • 4.3.2 Grid-absorption quota & curtailment risk
  • 4.3.3 Lack of sovereign guarantee for floating-PV PPAs
  • 4.3.4 High IDR-FX hedging costs for IPPs
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porters Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Industry Rivalry
• 4.8 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Technology
  • 5.1.1 Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
  • 5.1.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
• 5.2 By Grid Type
  • 5.2.1 On-Grid
  • 5.2.2 Off-Grid
• 5.3 By End-User
  • 5.3.1 Utility-Scale
  • 5.3.2 Commercial and Industrial (C&I)
  • 5.3.3 Residential
• 5.4 By Component (Qualitative Analysis)
  • 5.4.1 Solar Modules/Panels
  • 5.4.2 Inverters (String, Central, Micro)
  • 5.4.3 Mounting and Tracking Systems
  • 5.4.4 Balance-of-System and Electricals
  • 5.4.5 Energy Storage and Hybrid Integration

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 PT Surya Utama Nuansa (SUN Energy)
  • 6.4.2 PT TotalEnergies Eren Indonesia
  • 6.4.3 PT Sumber Energi Sukses Makmur (SES)
  • 6.4.4 PT Sumber Energi Surya Nusantara (SESNA)
  • 6.4.5 PT Solardex Energy Indonesia
  • 6.4.6 Canadian Solar Inc.
  • 6.4.7 Trina Solar Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.9 First Solar Inc.
  • 6.4.10 JA Solar Technology Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.11 Risen Energy Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.12 PT Len Industri (Persero)
  • 6.4.13 PT PLN Nusantara Power
  • 6.4.14 Akuo Energy Indonesia
  • 6.4.15 ACWA Power Indonesia
  • 6.4.16 Vena Energy Indonesia
  • 6.4.17 Masdar Indonesia
  • 6.4.18 PT Xurya Daya Indonesia
  • 6.4.19 Enernet Global Indonesia

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment