熱泵：全球市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢、統計數據和成長預測（2025-2030 年）

預計到 2025 年，熱泵市場規模將達到 836.6 億美元，到 2030 年將達到 1,316.7 億美元。

這反映了 9.49% 的複合年成長率，主要得益於政策驅動的電氣化目標和寒冷氣候技術的突破。

歐洲和北美地區的脫碳政策、聯邦和州政府的大力扶持以及日益龐大的公共產業計劃，使得熱泵市場成為石化燃料供暖和熱水解決方案的重要替代方案。中國一體化的製造地有效降低了成本，而變頻壓縮機技術的進步縮小了零下溫度下的性能差距，為在寒冷氣候地區快速普及奠定了基礎。美國和波蘭的供應鏈本地化舉措降低了關稅和運費風險，「供熱即服務」融資模式的興起解決了高昂的初始安裝成本問題，此前這一成本曾阻礙了熱泵在現有建築中的應用。

全球熱泵市場趨勢與洞察

政府脫碳獎勵和強制規定

積極的政策框架透過將建築規範和補貼水準與可再生能源供熱性能直接掛鉤，人為地製造了對熱泵的強勁需求。例如，美國的《通貨膨脹抑制法案》提供了聯邦稅額扣抵和州政府補貼，每戶家庭最高可獲得14,000美元；德國則強制規定，從2024年起，所有新建供暖系統必須使用65%的可再生能源供熱；加拿大的「油轉熱泵經濟適用性計畫」為低收入家庭提供高達15,000加元（約合11,100美元）的補貼；英國的「鍋爐升級計畫」也提供高達7,500英鎊（約9,400美元）的補貼。這些措施人為地設定了需求下限，保護製造商免受宏觀經濟放緩的影響，並加速了市場滲透。

電氣化主導的暖通空調更新周期

大型城市的溫室氣體排放法規將通常15-20年的暖通空調系統更換週期縮短為快速維修，並以高效能熱泵取代故障鍋爐。紐約市第97號地方法律催生了諸如Hudson街345號維修項目之類的計劃，該項目結合了熱泵和余熱回收技術，以實現到2030年排放70%的目標。麻州公用事業公司在弗雷明漢推出了美國首個地熱網路，於2024年連結了135戶用戶，展現了社區電氣化的潛力。

現有建築物的安裝和維修成本很高

設備總價因地區而異。在德國，維修一棟典型的連棟住宅需要花費超過3萬歐元（約3.24萬美元），是法國補貼後的兩倍，主要是因為德國人事費用高且授權流程更為嚴格。紐約一棟多戶住宅大樓的案例研究顯示，光是配電盤的維修就佔了計劃總成本的40%，凸顯了補貼無法涵蓋的基礎建設難題。

細分市場分析

2024年，熱泵佔了73.5%的市場。然而，隨著公用事業公司試點建設聯網迴路（例如耗資1400萬美元的弗雷明漢計劃，該項目在2024年連接了135個用戶），預計地源熱泵/地熱能市場將以12.6%的複合年成長率成長。直接膨脹式鑽孔和共用地埋管路技術的進步已將能源效率比（COP）穩定性提高到4.0以上，從而增強了其在人口密集的城市填充區中的吸引力。

空氣源熱泵製造商持續改進低溫演算法，降低了-20°F（-29°C）時的性能衰減，從而釋放了北方市場的成長。同時，公用事業公司和大型開發商將地熱系統視為應對電網尖峰負載的有效手段，因為其輸出功率與外部溫度波動無關。這些動態表明，熱泵市場將逐步實現重新平衡，儘管在整個預測期內，空氣源熱泵仍將佔據主導地位。

2024年，功率不超過10千瓦的家用熱泵系統將佔總出貨量的46.3%，反映出在消費者補貼的支持下，此類系統在獨棟住宅中得到廣泛應用。然而，30千瓦以上的功率等級將佔據主導地位，年複合成長率將達到12.4%，這主要得益於區域供熱和工業計劃的成長。丹麥埃斯比約70兆瓦海水發電廠和漢堡60兆瓦污水舉措凸顯了集中式大型設施的發展動能。

由於設備標準化和授權簡化，小容量部署預計將持續成長。大容量部署的強勁勢頭凸顯了其更廣泛的應用領域，包括倉儲、食品加工以及旨在實現碳中和供熱的市政管網。

熱泵市場按熱源類型（空氣源、水源、地源）、額定容量（10kW以下、10-20kW及其他）、系統設計（分離式、一體式、混合式熱泵）、最終用戶（住宅、商業及其他）、應用（空間供暖和製冷、熱水及其他）以及地區進行細分。市場預測以美元計價。

區域分析

2024年，亞太地區仍將維持在熱泵市場的主導地位，市佔率高達38.3%。這主要得益於中國國內13%的銷售成長和佔全球產能40%的佔有率，同時工廠自動化也促使單價下降了12%。日本1%的謹慎成長以及韓國在壓縮機技術領域的領先地位，穩定了該地區的熱泵出貨量。

歐洲正在復甦，預計在經歷了2024年初德國供暖法爭議導致消費者信心受挫、銷量下降50%的低迷之後，年複合成長率將達到11.1%。法國承諾每年生產100萬台家用電器，丹麥也公佈了包括埃斯比約海水發電廠在內的多個大型區域性計劃，以履行其到2030年石化燃料目標的承諾。英國儘管獲得了高達7.5兆英鎊的慷慨補貼，但仍未能完成其安裝目標，這凸顯了基礎設施和技能障礙而非純粹的經濟因素所起的作用。

北美地區在經歷了最初的疲軟開局後，已在政策支持的推動下進入成長週期：在美國，《通膨降低法案》的激勵措施已促使銷售額在2024年11月前同比成長15%；而在加拿大，已處理超過13000份撥款申請，主要集中在大西洋省份。三菱電機壓縮機工廠和大金-科普蘭合資企業等供應鏈重組項目旨在透過關鍵零件的本地化生產來抵消2.5億至2.75億美元關稅的影響。

其他福利：

• Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
• 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章 引言

• 研究假設和市場定義
• 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場情勢

• 市場概覽
• 市場促進因素
  • 政府脫碳獎勵和強制規定
  • 電氣化導致的暖通空調更換週期延長
  • 變頻壓縮機的成本迅速下降
  • 併網熱泵可實現需量反應收益
  • 寒冷地區熱泵技術取得突破
  • 以供熱為服務的經營模式能夠促進資金籌措
• 市場限制
  • 現有建築物的安裝和維修成本很高
  • 熟練安裝人員短缺
  • 老舊住宅存量的配電盤和電網容量受限。
  • 在某些國家，與混合氫鍋爐競爭的風險
• 價值/供應鏈分析
• 監管環境
• 技術展望
• 宏觀經濟因素的影響
• 波特五力模型
  • 供應商的議價能力
  • 買方的議價能力
  • 新進入者的威脅
  • 替代品的威脅
  • 競爭程度

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

• 按熱源類型
  • 空氣源
    • Air-to-Air
    • Air-to-Water
  • 水源
    • 地表水
    • 開放回路
  • 地源/地熱源
    • 垂直閉合迴路
    • 閉合迴路水平型
    • 直接膨脹
• 按額定容量
  • 小於10千瓦
  • 10-20 kW
  • 20-30 kW
  • 30千瓦或以上
• 透過系統設計
  • 分離式系統
  • 單體塊
  • 混合熱泵
• 最終用戶
  • 住房
  • 商業
  • 產業
  • 公共利益
• 透過使用
  • 空間供暖和冷氣
  • 熱水供應
  • 區域供熱
  • 製程和工業加熱
• 按地區
  • 北美洲
    • 美國
    • 加拿大
    • 墨西哥
  • 南美洲
    • 巴西
    • 阿根廷
    • 其他南美洲國家
  • 歐洲
    • 德國
    • 英國
    • 法國
    • 義大利
    • 俄羅斯
    • 其他歐洲地區
  • 亞太地區
    • 中國
    • 日本
    • 韓國
    • 印度
    • ASEAN
    • 亞太其他地區
  • 中東和非洲
    • 中東
    • 沙烏地阿拉伯
    • 阿拉伯聯合大公國
    • 土耳其
    • 其他中東地區
    • 非洲
    • 南非
    • 奈及利亞
    • 其他非洲地區

第6章 競爭情勢

• 市場集中度
• 策略趨勢
• 市佔率分析
• 公司簡介
  • Daikin Industries, Ltd.
  • Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
  • Panasonic Holdings Corporation
  • Trane Technologies plc
  • Carrier Global Corporation
  • NIBE Industrier AB
  • Glen Dimplex Group
  • Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
  • Stiebel Eltron GmbH & Co. KG
  • Midea Group Co., Ltd.
  • Guangdong Gree Electric Appliances Inc. of Zhuhai
  • Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd.
  • Bosch Thermotechnology GmbH（Robert Bosch GmbH）
  • LG Electronics Inc.
  • Lennox International Inc.
  • Ariston Holding NV（Ariston Group）
  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
  • Rheem Manufacturing Company
  • Johnson Controls International plc
  • Viomi Technology Co., Ltd.
  • AO Smith Corporation
  • Ecoforest Geotermia SL
  • WaterFurnace International, Inc.（NIBE Group）
  • Danfoss A/S
  • Vaillant GmbH

第7章 市場機會與未來趨勢

• 閒置頻段與未滿足需求評估

The heat pump market size stood at USD 83.66 billion in 2025 and is forecast to advance to USD 131.67 billion by 2030, reflecting a 9.49% CAGR driven largely by policy-backed electrification targets and cold-climate technology breakthroughs.

Decarbonization mandates in Europe and North America, large federal and provincial incentive packages, and ever-larger utility-scale projects positioned the heat pump market as the leading replacement pathway for fossil-fuel-based space and water heating solutions. China's integrated manufacturing base held costs down while inverter-driven compressor advances narrowed performance gaps in sub-zero environments, setting the stage for rapid uptake in colder regions. Supply-chain localization efforts in the United States and Poland mitigated tariff and freight risks while growing "Heat-as-a-Service" finance models addressed steep upfront installation costs that had slowed adoption in existing buildings.

Global Heat Pumps Market Trends and Insights

Government decarbonization incentives and mandates

Aggressive policy frameworks created binding demand for heat pumps by tying building codes and subsidy levels directly to renewable heat outcomes. The US Inflation Reduction Act offered combined federal tax credits and state rebates as high as USD 14,000 per household, while Germany enforced its 65% renewable-heat requirement for all new heating systems starting in 2024. Canada's Oil to Heat Pump Affordability Program provided up to CAD 15,000 (USD 11,100) to lower-income homes, and the UK's Boiler Upgrade Scheme paid grants of up to GBP 7,500 (USD 9,400). These measures set artificial demand floors that shielded manufacturers from macroeconomic slowdowns and accelerated market penetration.

Electrification-driven HVAC replacement cycles

Local greenhouse gas caps in large cities condensed typical 15-20 year HVAC replacement intervals into fast-tracked retrofits that replace failing boilers with high-efficiency heat pumps. New York City's Local Law 97 triggered projects such as the retrofit of 345 Hudson Street, combining heat pumps and waste-heat recovery to hit a 70% emissions-cut target by 2030. Massachusetts Utilities launched the first US geothermal network in Framingham, connecting 135 customers in 2024 and demonstrating district-level electrification potential.

High installation and retrofitting costs in existing buildings

Total installed pricing diverged sharply by geography. Typical German row-house retrofits exceeded EUR 30,000 (USD 32,400), double France's post-subsidy cost because of higher labor expenses and stricter permitting rules. A New York multifamily case study showed that electrical panel upgrades alone amounted to 40% of the project cost, highlighting infrastructure hurdles that incentives cannot fully offset.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rapid cost declines in inverter-driven compressors
2. Cold-climate heat pump technology breakthroughs
3. Skilled installer shortage

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Air-source units held 73.5% heat pump market share in 2024 because of lower installation costs and product familiarity. However, the ground/geothermal category is forecast to post a 12.6% CAGR, the fastest within the spectrum, as utilities pilot networked loops such as the USD 14 million Framingham project that connected 135 customers in 2024. Advances in direct-expansion boreholes and shared ground loops improved COP stability above 4.0, increasing appeal in dense urban infill.

Air-source manufacturers continued to refine low-ambient algorithms, cutting performance drop-off at -20°F and unlocking northern growth. Meanwhile, utilities and large developers viewed geothermal systems as a hedge against grid-peak constraints because output is decoupled from outdoor temperature swings. These dynamics suggest gradual rebalancing, yet the heat pump market will still see air-source units dominate unit volumes through the forecast horizon.

Residential-scale systems up to 10 kW contributed 46.3% of 2024 shipments, reflecting the breadth of single-family adoption supported by consumer rebates. The above-30 kW class, however, is projected to outpace all others at a 12.4% CAGR as district heating and industrial process projects proliferate. Denmark's 70 MW Esbjerg seawater plant and Hamburg's 60 MW wastewater initiative highlight the momentum toward centralized mega-scale assets.

Small-capacity uptake will remain elevated because of standardized equipment and simplified permitting. Large-capacity momentum underscores the widening application perimeter that includes warehouses, food processing, and municipal networks aiming for carbon-neutral heat.

Heat Pump Market is Segmented by Source Type (Air-Source, Water-Source, and Ground/Geothermal Source), Rated Capacity (Up To 10 KW, 10-20 KW, and More), System Design (Split System, Monobloc, and Hybrid Heat Pump), End-User (Residential, Commercial, and More), Application (Space Heating and Cooling, Water Heating, and More), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific retained a commanding 38.3% portion of the heat pump market in 2024, underpinned by China's 13% domestic sales growth and its 40% share of global production capacity, which yielded 12% unit-cost declines from factory automation gains. Japan's cautious 1% volume uptick and South Korea's compressor technology leadership stabilized regional shipments, while India remained nascent because tropical ambient conditions limited efficiency advantages for traditional designs.

Europe is on a rebound path, with an 11.1% CAGR projected after a 50% sales dip in early 2024 when Germany's heating-law debate dampened consumer confidence. France committed to producing 1 million units per year domestically, and Denmark showcased flagship district-scale projects, including the Esbjerg seawater plant, as part of its fossil-free-by-2030 pledge. The United Kingdom trailed installation targets despite rich GBP 7,500 grants, underscoring the role of infrastructure and skills barriers over pure economics.

North America entered a policy-assisted growth cycle after initial softness: US year-over-year sales climbed 15% by November 2024 following the Inflation Reduction Act incentives, while Canada processed more than 13,000 subsidy applications concentrated in Atlantic provinces. Supply-chain reshoring efforts, including Mitsubishi Electric's compressor factory and the Daikin-Copeland joint venture, aim to offset projected USD 250-275 million tariff exposure by localizing critical components.

1. Daikin Industries, Ltd.
2. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
3. Panasonic Holdings Corporation
4. Trane Technologies plc
5. Carrier Global Corporation
6. NIBE Industrier AB
7. Glen Dimplex Group
8. Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
9. Stiebel Eltron GmbH & Co. KG
10. Midea Group Co., Ltd.
11. Guangdong Gree Electric Appliances Inc. of Zhuhai
12. Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd.
13. Bosch Thermotechnology GmbH (Robert Bosch GmbH)
14. LG Electronics Inc.
15. Lennox International Inc.
16. Ariston Holding N.V. (Ariston Group)
17. Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
18. Rheem Manufacturing Company
19. Johnson Controls International plc
20. Viomi Technology Co., Ltd.
21. A. O. Smith Corporation
22. Ecoforest Geotermia S.L.
23. WaterFurnace International, Inc. (NIBE Group)
24. Danfoss A/S
25. Vaillant GmbH

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Government decarbonization incentives and mandates
  • 4.2.2 Electrification-driven HVAC replacement cycles
  • 4.2.3 Rapid cost declines in inverter-driven compressors
  • 4.2.4 Grid-interactive heat pumps enabling demand-response revenue
  • 4.2.5 Cold-climate heat pump technology breakthroughs
  • 4.2.6 Heat-as-a-Service business models unlocking financing
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 High installation and retrofitting costs in existing buildings
  • 4.3.2 Skilled installer shortage
  • 4.3.3 Electrical-panel and grid-capacity constraints in older housing stock
  • 4.3.4 Competitive risk from hybrid hydrogen boilers in specific countries
• 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors
• 4.8 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.8.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.8.5 Degree of Competition

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUES)

• 5.1 By Source Type
  • 5.1.1 Air-Source
    • 5.1.1.1 Air-to-Air
    • 5.1.1.2 Air-to-Water
  • 5.1.2 Water-Source
    • 5.1.2.1 Surface Water
    • 5.1.2.2 Open Loop
  • 5.1.3 Ground / Geothermal Source
    • 5.1.3.1 Closed Loop Vertical
    • 5.1.3.2 Closed Loop Horizontal
    • 5.1.3.3 Direct Expansion
• 5.2 By Rated Capacity
  • 5.2.1 Up to 10 kW
  • 5.2.2 10-20 kW
  • 5.2.3 20-30 kW
  • 5.2.4 Above 30 kW
• 5.3 By System Design
  • 5.3.1 Split System
  • 5.3.2 Monobloc
  • 5.3.3 Hybrid Heat Pump
• 5.4 By End-User
  • 5.4.1 Residential
  • 5.4.2 Commercial
  • 5.4.3 Industrial
  • 5.4.4 Institutional
• 5.5 By Application
  • 5.5.1 Space Heating and Cooling
  • 5.5.2 Water Heating
  • 5.5.3 District Heating
  • 5.5.4 Process and Industrial Heating
• 5.6 By Geography
  • 5.6.1 North America
    • 5.6.1.1 United States
    • 5.6.1.2 Canada
    • 5.6.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.6.2 South America
    • 5.6.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.6.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.6.2.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.6.3 Europe
    • 5.6.3.1 Germany
    • 5.6.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.6.3.3 France
    • 5.6.3.4 Italy
    • 5.6.3.5 Russia
    • 5.6.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.6.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.4.1 China
    • 5.6.4.2 Japan
    • 5.6.4.3 South Korea
    • 5.6.4.4 India
    • 5.6.4.5 ASEAN
    • 5.6.4.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.6.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.6.5.1 Middle East
    • 5.6.5.1.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.6.5.1.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.6.5.1.3 Turkey
    • 5.6.5.1.4 Rest of Middle East
    • 5.6.5.2 Africa
    • 5.6.5.2.1 South Africa
    • 5.6.5.2.2 Nigeria
    • 5.6.5.2.3 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Daikin Industries, Ltd.
  • 6.4.2 Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
  • 6.4.3 Panasonic Holdings Corporation
  • 6.4.4 Trane Technologies plc
  • 6.4.5 Carrier Global Corporation
  • 6.4.6 NIBE Industrier AB
  • 6.4.7 Glen Dimplex Group
  • 6.4.8 Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
  • 6.4.9 Stiebel Eltron GmbH & Co. KG
  • 6.4.10 Midea Group Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.11 Guangdong Gree Electric Appliances Inc. of Zhuhai
  • 6.4.12 Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.13 Bosch Thermotechnology GmbH (Robert Bosch GmbH)
  • 6.4.14 LG Electronics Inc.
  • 6.4.15 Lennox International Inc.
  • 6.4.16 Ariston Holding N.V. (Ariston Group)
  • 6.4.17 Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.18 Rheem Manufacturing Company
  • 6.4.19 Johnson Controls International plc
  • 6.4.20 Viomi Technology Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.21 A. O. Smith Corporation
  • 6.4.22 Ecoforest Geotermia S.L.
  • 6.4.23 WaterFurnace International, Inc. (NIBE Group)
  • 6.4.24 Danfoss A/S
  • 6.4.25 Vaillant GmbH

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-need Assessment