中國電動車市場：市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢、統計數據和成長預測（2025-2030）

預計到 2025 年，中國電動車市場規模將達到 3,579.8 億美元，到 2030 年將達到 7,882 億美元，在預測期（2025-2030 年）內，複合年成長率將達到 17.13%。

電池成本趨於穩定、充電和換電服務在全國普及，以及插電式混合動力汽車在二、三線城市的強勁成長勢頭，將推動銷售成長。汽車製造商也在加速垂直整合和電池化學技術創新，以在價格競爭日益激烈的環境下確保利潤空間。基礎設施投資和具有成本競爭力的磷酸鐵鋰電池將幫助中國電動車市場進一步滲透對價格敏感的農村市場。

中國電動車市場趨勢與洞察

新能源車購置免稅政策延長至2027年

每輛車1,390美元至4,175美元的稅收減免政策，有助於緩解後補貼時代的過渡期壓力，並維持入門車型的價格競爭力。二、三線客戶對這些優惠政策反應熱烈，預計2024年新能源汽車銷售的三分之一將受惠於稅收減免和以舊換新獎勵。政策的可預測性使汽車製造商能夠更好地規劃產能擴張和中期改款，尤其是對於中型跨界車而言，這類車型是中國電動車銷售的主要驅動力。

興建全國快速充電和換電走廊

寧德時代和中石化正在興建500座換電站，換電站換電時間僅需兩分鐘。目前高速公路已覆蓋60%的服務區域，但57%的充電樁集中在15個城市，這意味著西部省份仍有發展空間。這種雙軌制的基礎設施策略既滿足了通勤者的需求，也保障了車輛的執行時間，從而增強了人們對中國電動車市場的信心。

中央補貼逐步取消延緩了升級週期

2022年12月補貼政策的結束導致購車優惠減少了1,670-2,780元人民幣，讓中階轎車的價格更加敏感。汽車製造商採取了返利和區域性以舊換新計劃等應對措施，但這仍然導致更換週期延長。隨著電池投入成本的下降，對直接補貼的依賴將會降低，預計中國電動車市場的自然更換節奏將逐漸恢復正常。

細分市場分析

到2024年，電池式電動車將引領中國電動車市場，佔當年出貨量的58.36%。然而，插電式混合動力汽車預計到2030年將以21.47%的複合年成長率成長，隨著內陸地區基礎設施的日益完善，兩者之間的差距將逐漸縮小。雙燃料的靈活性使得插電式混合動力汽車成為充電設施稀少地區車主的首選過渡方案。

純電動車成本的持續下降將使全電動車型在小型車和計程車車隊中保持吸引力，而插電式混合動力汽車在家用SUV和農村轎車中的成長將使動力傳動系統組合多樣化，促使製造商在不同的架構之間進行對沖，而固態電池計劃則瞄準了2030年以後高階純電動汽車的浪潮。

到2024年，乘用車將佔中國電動車市場佔有率的88.25%，而輕型商用車的複合年成長率為18.71%。市政零排放配額、樞紐輻射式物流以及電池更換的經濟效益，使得電動輕型商用車成為可靠的車隊資產。

SUV市場將以15.21%的複合年成長率成長，這主要得益於消費者對寬敞內部空間的需求，以及公車業者在區域低排放氣體法規的推動下更新其柴油車隊。商業性應用的普及將進一步推高電池需求，並擴大中國電動車市場規模，使其不再侷限於個人出行領域。

其他福利：

• Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
• 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章 引言

• 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場情勢

• 市場促進因素
  • 新能源車購置免稅期延長至2027年
  • 全國快速充電與電池更換走廊建設計畫
  • 插電式混合動力車在二、三線城市銷量激增，凸顯其燃油經濟性
  • 市政電子貨運配額提振了對電動輕型商用車的需求
  • V2G 試收費系統可實現車網互動收入流
  • 與採用磷酸鐵鋰電池主導的小型內燃機汽車成本持平
• 市場限制
  • 中央補貼逐步取消延緩了升級週期
  • 碳酸鋰價格波動和出口限制
  • 各州對低使用率公共充電樁的數量設定上限
  • 新能源汽車品質問題日益增多（JD Power IQS 調查）正在削弱消費者忠誠度。
• 價值/供應鏈分析
• 監管環境
• 技術展望
• 電池化學發展趨勢
• 波特五力模型
  • 新進入者的威脅
  • 買方/消費者的議價能力
  • 供應商的議價能力
  • 替代品的威脅
  • 競爭對手之間的競爭

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

• 按傳動系統類型
  • 電池電動車
  • 插電式混合動力電動車
  • 燃料電池電動車
• 按車輛類型
  • 搭乘用車
    • 掀背車
    • 轎車
    • SUV
    • MPV
  • 商用車輛
    • 輕型商用車
    • 公車和長途客車
    • 中型和大型卡車
• 電池化學
  • LFP
  • NCM/NMC
  • NCA
  • 其他
• 按價格分佈
  • 不到1萬美元
  • 10,000 美元至 20,000 美元
  • 20,000美元至30,000美元
  • 30,000 美元至 50,000 美元
  • 超過5萬美元

第6章 競爭情勢

• 策略趨勢
• 市佔率分析
• 公司簡介
  • BYD Company Ltd
  • SAIC-GM-Wuling
  • Tesla Inc.
  • Geely Auto Group
  • Changan Automobile
  • Great Wall Motors
  • BAIC Motor Corp.
  • SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd.
  • Dongfeng Motor Corp.
  • FAW Group
  • GAC Aion
  • NIO Inc.
  • Xpeng Motors
  • Li Auto
  • Leapmotor
  • Hozon Auto（Neta）
  • Zeekr Intelligent Tech.
  • Seres Group
  • Jiangling Motors Corp.
  • JAC Motors
  • Chery Automobile

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

The China Electric Vehicles Market size is estimated at USD 357.98 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 788.20 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 17.13% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

Battery cost parity, a nationwide charging and battery-swap build-out, and tier-2/3 city PHEV momentum reinforce volume expansion. Automakers are also accelerating vertical integration and battery chemistry innovation to secure falling margins amid price wars. Infrastructure investment and cost-competitive LFP batteries position the Chinese electric vehicle market for further penetration into price-sensitive rural segments.

China Electric Vehicles Market Trends and Insights

Extended NEV Purchase-Tax Exemptions to 2027

Tax-free status worth USD 1,390-4,175 per vehicle cushions the post-subsidy transition and keeps entry-level pricing competitive. Tier-2/3 customers react strongly to this saving, and one-third of 2024 NEV sales leveraged the exemption plus trade-in incentives. Predictable policy horizons let automakers schedule capacity ramps and mid-cycle refreshes, particularly for mid-market crossovers driving the volume of China's electric vehicles.

Nationwide Fast-Charging & Battery-Swap Corridor Build-Out

Public charging points rose drastically over the past few years, while CATL and Sinopec are placing 500 battery-swap stations capable of two-minute exchanges. Highway coverage now spans 60% of service areas, and 57% of chargers remain clustered within 15 cities, signalling headroom in western provinces. The twin-track infrastructure strategy addresses commuter top-up needs and fleet uptime demands, underpinning confidence in the Chinese electric vehicle market.

Phase-Out of Central Subsidies Slowing Upgrade Cycles

The December 2022 subsidy sunset trimmed purchase incentives by RMB 1,670-2,780, elevating price sensitivity in mid-market sedans. Automakers countered with rebates and regional trade-in schemes, yet replacement intervals lengthened. As battery input costs drop, reliance on direct subsidies is expected to fade, restoring natural replacement rhythms within the Chinese electric vehicle market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. PHEV Surge in Tier-2/3 Cities on Fuel-Savings Appeal
2. Municipal E-Freight Quotas Boosting Electric LCV Demand
3. Lithium-Carbonate Price & Export-Control Volatility

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Battery electric vehicles led 2024 deliveries with a 58.36% share, anchoring the China electric vehicle market size for that year. Plug-in hybrids, however, are forecast to post a 21.47% CAGR to 2030, narrowing the gap as infrastructure diffuses inland. Dual-fuel flexibility makes PHEVs the preferred bridge tech for drivers facing sparse chargers.

Continued BEV cost erosion keeps fully electric models appealing in subcompacts and taxi fleets, yet PHEV growth in family SUVs and rural sedans diversifies the powertrain mix. Manufacturers, therefore, hedge across architectures, while solid-state programs target the post-2030 premium BEV wave.

Passenger cars captured 88.25% of China's electric vehicle market share in 2024, but light commercial vans are rising on an 18.71% CAGR trajectory. Municipal zero-emission quotas, hub-and-spoke logistics, and battery-swap economics make electric LCVs a reliable fleet asset.

SUVs show 15.21% CAGR as consumers trade up for cabin space, and bus operators refresh diesel fleets under local low-emission mandates. Commercial adoption reinforces battery demand curves and broadens China's electric vehicle market size beyond private mobility.

The China Electric Vehicle Market Report is Segmented by Drivetrain Type (Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles, and More), Vehicle Type (Passenger Cars [Hatchback and More] and Commercial Vehicles [Light Commercial Vehicles and More]), Battery Chemistry (LFP, NCM/NMC, and More), and Price Band (Less Than USD 10, 000 and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. BYD Company Ltd
2. SAIC-GM-Wuling
3. Tesla Inc.
4. Geely Auto Group
5. Changan Automobile
6. Great Wall Motors
7. BAIC Motor Corp.
8. SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd.
9. Dongfeng Motor Corp.
10. FAW Group
11. GAC Aion
12. NIO Inc.
13. Xpeng Motors
14. Li Auto
15. Leapmotor
16. Hozon Auto (Neta)
17. Zeekr Intelligent Tech.
18. Seres Group
19. Jiangling Motors Corp.
20. JAC Motors
21. Chery Automobile

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Drivers
  • 4.1.1 Extended NEV Purchase-Tax Exemptions to 2027
  • 4.1.2 Nationwide Fast-Charging & Battery-Swap Corridor Build-Out
  • 4.1.3 PHEV Surge in Tier-2/3 Cities on Fuel-Savings Appeal
  • 4.1.4 Municipal E-Freight Quotas Boosting Electric LCV Demand
  • 4.1.5 V2G Pilot Tariffs Enabling Vehicle-Grid Revenue Streams
  • 4.1.6 LFP-Driven Cost Parity With Sub-Compact ICE Cars
• 4.2 Market Restraints
  • 4.2.1 Phase-Out of Central Subsidies Slowing Upgrade Cycles
  • 4.2.2 Lithium-Carbonate Price & Export-Control Volatility
  • 4.2.3 Provincial Caps on Low-Utilisation Public Chargers
  • 4.2.4 Rising NEV Quality Issues (JD Power IQS) Denting Loyalty
• 4.3 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.4 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.5 Technological Outlook
• 4.6 Battery-Chemistry Trends
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value, 2024-2030)

• 5.1 By Drivetrain Type
  • 5.1.1 Battery Electric Vehicles
  • 5.1.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
  • 5.1.3 Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles
• 5.2 By Vehicle Type
  • 5.2.1 Passenger Cars
    • 5.2.1.1 Hatchback
    • 5.2.1.2 Sedan
    • 5.2.1.3 SUV
    • 5.2.1.4 MPV
  • 5.2.2 Commercial Vehicles
    • 5.2.2.1 Light Commercial Vehicles
    • 5.2.2.2 Buses & Coaches
    • 5.2.2.3 Medium & Heavy Trucks
• 5.3 By Battery Chemistry
  • 5.3.1 LFP
  • 5.3.2 NCM/NMC
  • 5.3.3 NCA
  • 5.3.4 Others
• 5.4 By Price Band
  • 5.4.1 Less than USD 10,000
  • 5.4.2 USD 10,000 - 20,000
  • 5.4.3 USD 20,000 - 30,000
  • 5.4.4 USD 30,000 - 50,000
  • 5.4.5 Over USD 50,000

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Strategic Moves
• 6.2 Market Share Analysis
• 6.3 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.3.1 BYD Company Ltd
  • 6.3.2 SAIC-GM-Wuling
  • 6.3.3 Tesla Inc.
  • 6.3.4 Geely Auto Group
  • 6.3.5 Changan Automobile
  • 6.3.6 Great Wall Motors
  • 6.3.7 BAIC Motor Corp.
  • 6.3.8 SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd.
  • 6.3.9 Dongfeng Motor Corp.
  • 6.3.10 FAW Group
  • 6.3.11 GAC Aion
  • 6.3.12 NIO Inc.
  • 6.3.13 Xpeng Motors
  • 6.3.14 Li Auto
  • 6.3.15 Leapmotor
  • 6.3.16 Hozon Auto (Neta)
  • 6.3.17 Zeekr Intelligent Tech.
  • 6.3.18 Seres Group
  • 6.3.19 Jiangling Motors Corp.
  • 6.3.20 JAC Motors
  • 6.3.21 Chery Automobile

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment