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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1851072
重型卡車:市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢、統計數據和成長預測(2025-2030 年)Heavy Duty Trucks - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030) |
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預計到 2025 年,重型卡車市場規模將達到 2,325.7 億美元,到 2030 年將達到 3,012.3 億美元,複合年成長率為 5.31%。

由於車隊需要在滿足排放氣體即時的排放法規和製定長期電氣化計劃之間尋求平衡,因此市場需求正處於謹慎成長階段。全球監管趨嚴、基礎建設投入空前巨大,以及電池和氫能技術的快速發展,正在共同重塑採購決策和資本配置策略。在老牌製造商投資新平台的同時,軟體專家和電池供應商也紛紛湧入市場,形成了一個競爭激烈的環境,在這個環境中,作業系統架構的控制與引擎設計同等重要。政策驅動的購車週期將推動短期內柴油車銷售成長,但隨著成本平衡里程碑的臨近,各地區的預測都顯示,市場將迅速轉向零排放車輛。亞太地區的規模優勢、北美地區的政府採購獎勵、歐洲地區先進的運輸計劃,以及部分線路貨運量的週期性疲軟,共同支撐著市場穩健的成長前景。
電子商務貨運的擴張透過最佳化最後一公里配送和提高區域配送網路的密度,推動了對重型卡車的需求。線上零售的激增,在零排放法規日益限制柴油車營運的城市環境中,催生了對中型電動卡車的需求。車隊營運商優先考慮能夠在可預測路線上進行多次每日配送的車輛,這使得電池電動卡車儘管前期成本較高,但在經濟上仍然可行。這種轉變尤其有利於7級卡車,因為其營運模式符合目前電池技術的限制。隨著市政當局實施零排放區,以及消費者對更快、更永續的配送方式的需求不斷成長,這一趨勢將會加速。亞馬遜承諾採購10萬輛電動送貨車,以及UPS採用可再生天然氣卡車,都顯示物流巨頭正在重塑籌資策略。
美國環保署(EPA)的第三階段標準要求到2032年,50%的專用車輛必須達到零排放。歐盟修訂後的二氧化碳排放標準要求在2040年減量90%,而加州的「先進清潔車隊」規則則要求從2036年開始,所有車輛銷售都必須實現100%零排放。分析師預測,在2027年正式實施前,2025年至2026年間,零排放車輛的訂單量將顯著成長。隨著依賴出口的製造商圍繞最嚴格的要求進行生產標準化,這些法規的連鎖效應將超越最初的市場範圍。中國電動卡車銷量佔全球80%以上,其零排放重型車輛的快速普及表明,政策可以如何加速市場轉型。
零排放卡車的購買成本是柴油卡車的兩到三倍。儘管鋰離子電池價格有所下降,但電池組成本(佔車輛價格的30%到40%)仍然是主要的成本促進因素。車隊營運商還需增建基建設施,據估計,到2035年,美國充電基礎建設需要300億美元。總體擁有成本的計算表明,電動卡車僅在特定工況下(例如高利用率和可預測路線)更具優勢,這限制了其應用範圍,使其僅限於特定用途。這種成本差異對缺乏前期投資資金的中小型車隊造成了衝擊,並可能加速產業整合,因為大型營運商可以透過早期電氣化獲得競爭優勢。
到2024年,15噸以上的卡車將佔據61.40%的市場佔有率,這反映出遠距貨運和需要最大有效負載容量的建築應用領域的主導地位。然而,10-15噸級卡車市場將以9.50%的複合年成長率(CAGR)實現最快成長,這一成長主要得益於城市配送的最佳化和中型卡車電氣化技術的普及。這種成長模式表明,車隊營運商正在策略性地轉向更適合特定應用場景的車輛尺寸,而不是一味追求最大有效負載容量。
重型卡車市場的領先地位源於其在單次運輸有效載荷經濟性方面的監管優勢,以及為最大總重車輛設計的成熟基礎設施。相反,輕型重型卡車則受益於較低的電氣化成本和城市零排放區建設所帶來的通行特權。由於電池重量增加對重型卡車的影響尤其顯著,因此,對於10-15噸級卡車而言,由於其對負載容量的敏感度低於對行駛靈活性的考量,因此更適合早期採用電氣化技術。
8級卡車將繼續保持其市場主導地位,到2024年將佔據70.80%的市場佔有率,這反映了它們在遠距貨運和重型建築應用領域的重要作用。然而,7級卡車展現出最強勁的成長勢頭,到2030年複合年成長率將達到8.30%,使其成為有效載荷能力和電氣化經濟性之間最佳的平衡點。這種差異凸顯了監管壓力和技術限制如何再形成傳統的卡車尺寸偏好。
8級卡車的主導地位反映了其成熟的供應鏈,該供應鏈針對遠距貨運的效率進行了最佳化,有效負載容量和區域分銷網路,在這些應用中,營運彈性比最大運力更為重要。此細分市場受益於電池成本的下降,從而能夠實現電氣化,同時保持足夠的有效負載容量以滿足大多數商業應用的需求。 5級和6級卡車則服務於市政和公用事業等特定領域,在這些領域,可預測的運行週期使得即使單位成本較高,也能更早實現電氣化。
預計到2024年,亞太地區將佔全球營收的47.21%,並在2030年之前以9.30%的複合年成長率成長。中國整車製造商憑藉著規模經濟優勢,使採購價格低於全球平均;而國內電池供應商提供的磷酸鋰電池(LFP)則降低了材料成本的波動性。在印度政府透過「印度公路網計畫」(Bharatmala)和氫能試點計畫提供的支持下,印度的貨運走廊正在推動對電池和燃料電池平台的需求。日本在燃料電池系統領域處於領先地位,其產品與上一代產品相比,能量損耗降低了30%。東南亞國家正利用自由貿易協定建立最終組裝中心,以滿足東協的需求;澳洲則在礦業電氣化試驗中,檢驗Megapack電池系統在惡劣環境下的表現。
北美地區在價值方面位居第二,這主要得益於其貨運密集型經濟和成熟的8級卡車文化。將於2027年生效的EPA第三階段排放標準,將從2025年開始刺激預購活動,在加速向零排放車型過渡之前,暫時提升柴油車的產量。北美地區的生產佈局從五大湖區一直延伸到墨西哥的新萊昂叢集,體現了供應鏈共享和貿易協定的益處。隨著IIJA資助2.5萬公里高速公路的翻新工程,與公共基礎設施合約相關的重型卡車市場規模將大幅成長,間接帶動了對自卸車和混凝土攪拌機車廂更換的需求。加拿大正透過CleanBC和CEPA撥款計畫推動港口電氣化,而墨西哥則致力於達到出口級合規標準,以確保進入美國市場進入。加州和德克薩斯州的電網改造計劃正在分配兆瓦級充電樁容量,以支援燃料電池卡車在I-10和I-5走廊沿線的早期部署。
歐洲制定了最雄心勃勃的脫碳時間表,歐洲議會強制要求到2040年,新卡車的二氧化碳排放量減少90%。德國、法國和荷蘭已為每輛零排放卡車提供5萬至9.5萬歐元的補貼,儘管面臨宏觀經濟逆風,這些補貼仍促進了訂單成長。替代燃料基礎設施法規確保了充電樁的供應,並緩解了長達1200公里的跨境運輸路線上的里程焦慮。斯堪地那維亞的沼氣混合燃料強制令允許運輸公司在不更換引擎的情況下減少全生命週期排放。東歐車隊面臨成本壁壘,但受益於歐盟的凝聚基金計劃,該計劃為購買低碳車輛提供共同融資。在南美洲,前景有所改善,巴西的「Rota 2030」計畫為本地生產的電動卡車提供稅額扣抵,智利和秘魯則致力於在銅礦開採走廊建設快速充電網路。中東和非洲仍在發展中,但沙烏地阿拉伯的汽車投資計畫和南非的可再生能源競標表明,未來電氣化將迎來發展勢頭。
The heavy duty trucks market is valued at USD 232.57 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 301.23 billion by 2030, registering a 5.31% CAGR.

Demand follows a measured growth path as fleets weigh immediate compliance with tightening emission rules against long-term electrification plans. Stricter global regulations, unprecedented infrastructure spending, and rapid advances in battery and hydrogen technologies work together to reshape purchase decisions and capital-allocation strategies. Established manufacturers invest in new platforms while software specialists and battery suppliers enter the ecosystem, creating a competitive environment where control of operating-system architecture matters as much as engine design. Policy-linked pre-buy cycles boost near-term diesel volumes, yet every regional outlook incorporates a rapid pivot toward zero-emission vehicles as cost parity milestones draw closer. Scale advantages in Asia Pacific, government procurement incentives in North America, and progressive timelines in Europe combine to keep the market's growth outlook resilient despite cyclical freight softness in some corridors.
E-commerce freight expansion drives heavy-duty truck demand through last-mile delivery optimization and regional distribution network densification. The surge in online retail creates demand for medium-duty electric trucks in urban environments, where zero-emission mandates increasingly restrict diesel operations. Fleet operators prioritize vehicles capable of multiple daily delivery cycles with predictable routes, making battery-electric trucks economically viable despite higher upfront costs. This shift particularly benefits Class 7 segments, where operational patterns align with current battery technology limitations. The trend accelerates as municipalities implement zero-emission zones and consumers demand faster, more sustainable delivery options. Amazon's commitment to 100,000 electric delivery vehicles and UPS's adoption of renewable natural gas trucks demonstrate how logistics giants reshape procurement strategies.
Regulatory frameworks across major markets create unprecedented pressure for fleet electrification, with the EPA's Phase 3 standards requiring 50% of vocational vehicles to be zero-emission by 2032. The EU's revised CO2 standards mandate 90% emission reductions by 2040, while California's Advanced Clean Fleet rule requires 100% zero-emission vehicle sales starting in 2036. These regulations create artificial demand spikes as fleets engage in pre-buy strategies to avoid compliance costs, with analysts predicting significant order increases in 2025-2026 ahead of 2027 implementation. The regulatory cascade effect extends beyond initial markets, as export-dependent manufacturers standardize production around the most stringent requirements. China's rapid adoption of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles, with over 80% of global electric truck sales, demonstrates how policy can accelerate market transformation.
Zero-emission trucks carry acquisition costs 2-3 times higher than diesel equivalents. Battery pack costs, representing 30-40% of vehicle price, remain the primary cost driver despite declining lithium-ion prices. Fleet operators face additional infrastructure investments for charging equipment and grid upgrades, with estimates suggesting USD 30 billion needed for U.S. charging infrastructure by 2035. Total cost of ownership calculations favor electric trucks only in specific duty cycles with high utilization and predictable routes, limiting adoption to specialized applications. The cost differential impacts small and medium-sized fleets lacking capital for upfront investments, potentially accelerating industry consolidation as larger operators gain competitive advantages through early electrification.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
More than 15-ton trucks commanded 61.40% market share in 2024, reflecting the dominance of long-haul freight operations and construction applications requiring maximum payload capacity. However, the 10-15-ton segment exhibits the fastest growth at 9.50% CAGR through 2030, driven by urban delivery optimization and medium-duty electrification adoption. This growth pattern indicates fleet operators' strategic shift toward right-sizing vehicles for specific applications rather than defaulting to maximum capacity options.
The heavier segment's market leadership stems from regulatory advantages in payload-per-trip economics and established infrastructure designed for maximum gross vehicle weights. Conversely, lighter heavy trucks benefit from lower electrification costs and urban access privileges as cities implement zero-emission zones. Battery weight penalties affect heavier trucks disproportionately, making the 10-15-ton segment more attractive for early electric adoption where payload sensitivity matters less than operational flexibility.
Class 8 vehicles maintain overwhelming market leadership with 70.80% share in 2024, reflecting their essential role in long-haul freight and heavy construction applications. Yet Class 7 trucks demonstrate the strongest growth trajectory at 8.30% CAGR through 2030, positioning themselves as the optimal compromise between payload capacity and electrification economics. This divergence highlights how regulatory pressures and technological constraints reshape traditional size preferences.
Class 8 dominance reflects established supply chains optimized for maximum efficiency in long-distance freight movement, where payload maximization directly impacts per-mile economics. However, Class 7 growth acceleration stems from urban delivery applications and regional distribution networks where operational flexibility outweighs maximum capacity requirements. The segment benefits from lower battery costs for electrification while maintaining sufficient payload for most commercial applications. Classes 5 and 6 serve specialized niches in municipal and utility applications, where predictable duty cycles enable early electric adoption despite higher per-unit costs.
The Heavy Duty Trucks Market Report is Segmented by Tonnage Type (10 To 15 T and More Than 15 T), Class (Class 7 and Class 8), Propulsion Type (Diesel, Battery-Electric, and More), Application (Construction and Mining, and More), Truck Body Type (Tractor-Trailer, and More), Sales Channel (OEM, and More), and Geography (North America, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).
Asia Pacific commanded 47.21% of 2024 revenue and is forecast to expand at 9.30% CAGR through 2030, underpinned by China's policy-backed electric-truck ecosystem. Chinese OEMs deliver scale economies that push purchase prices below global averages, and domestic battery suppliers supply LFP chemistries that reduce material cost volatility. India's freight corridors gain government backing through the Bharatmala program and hydrogen pilots, channeling demand into battery and fuel-cell platforms. Japan leads in fuel-cell systems, with demonstrations achieving 30% lower tank-to-wheel energy loss than earlier generations. South-East Asian nations leverage free-trade agreements to establish final-assembly hubs feeding ASEAN demand, while Australia's mining electrification trials validate mega-pack battery systems in extreme environments.
North America ranks second in value, driven by a freight-intensive economy and a well-established Class 8 culture. EPA Phase 3 standards, effective in 2027, spur pre-buy activity beginning in 2025, temporarily lifting diesel output before an accelerated switch to zero-emission models. Manufacturing footprints stretch from the Great Lakes to Mexico's Nuevo Leon cluster, reflecting supply-chain re-shoring and trade-agreement benefits. The heavy duty trucks market size tied to public-infrastructure contracts spikes as the IIJA funds 25,000 km of highway resurfacing, indirectly lifting replacement demand for dump and concrete-mixer bodies. Canada promotes near-port electrification through CleanBC and CEPA grants, while Mexico targets export-grade compliance to secure U.S. market access. Grid-upgrade projects in California and Texas allocate capacity for multi-megawatt depot chargers, anchoring early fuel-cell truck deployments along I-10 and I-5 corridors.
Europe exhibits the most ambitious decarbonization timetable, with the European Parliament mandating a 90% reduction in new-truck CO2 by 2040. Germany, France, and the Netherlands already subsidize €50,000-95,000 per zero-emission truck, lifting order books despite macroeconomic headwinds. The Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation guarantees charger availability, easing range anxiety in cross-border lanes that span up to 1,200 km. Scandinavia pioneers' biogas blending mandates, ensuring carriers can reduce lifecycle emissions without changing engines. Eastern European fleets face cost barriers but benefit from EU cohesion-fund programs that co-finance low-carbon vehicle purchases. South America's outlook improves as Brazil's Rota 2030 policy grants tax credits for local electric-truck production, while Chile and Peru explore fast-charge networks to serve copper-mining corridors. Middle East and Africa remain nascent; however, Saudi Arabia's automotive investment program and South Africa's renewable-energy auctions signal future electrification momentum.