棉花：市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢、統計數據和成長預測（2025-2030 年）

根據估計和預測，2025 年棉花市場規模為 443 億美元，預計到 2030 年將達到 516 億美元，預測期內複合年成長率為 3.1%。

持續的永續性要求正鼓勵生產者採用精密農業工具，從衛星引導的播種到感測器驅動的灌溉計劃，在保障盈利的同時減少資源消耗。可追溯性法規（尤其是《維吾爾族強迫勞動預防法》）的興起正在重塑全球採購格局，並推動商家實現端到端的數位可視性。同時，BCI認證正成為大眾服裝零售商的預設採購要求，使符合認證標準的生產者擁有了更大的議價能力。儘管來自纖維素纖維的競爭壓力仍然是結構性阻力，但氣候智慧型灌溉技術的改進和人工智慧驅動的產量預測系統正在提升新興經濟體生產者的利潤韌性。

全球棉花市場趨勢與洞察

主要紡織品進口中心對優質棉絨的需求持續旺盛

孟加拉預計在2025年成為全球最大的棉絨進口國，預計進口量將達到800萬包。亞洲少數幾個製造群的需求集中，使得能夠提供棉包級數據證明纖維特性的生產商能夠獲得穩定的溢價。儘管關稅存在不確定性，但越南仍然是孟加拉的主要出口目的地，憑藉其具有競爭力的人事費用和成熟的港口物流，有效抵消了政策風險。西非棉絨目前在孟加拉的消費佔有率不斷成長，預計到2022-2023年將達到39%。這主要歸功於西非棉絨的高馬克隆值以及非洲貿易商能夠保證源頭農藥殘留符合標準。這種採購模式有助於全球貿易流向多元化，擺脫以往從美國到東亞的傳統路線，並降低工廠和貿易商的運輸風險。

商業棉花計劃組織（BCI）加速了更優質採購方式的轉變。

目前，22個國家的超過213萬名農民依照BCI通訊協定進行生產，使該計畫成為規模最大的經獨立檢驗的農業永續性計畫。在最新的報告週期中，全球零售商採購的BCI標準棉絨增加了40%，使這項最初為自願性質的舉措轉變為供應商合約中不可協商的條款。除了減少水資源和農藥的使用外，該標準還納入了性別平等指標等社會保障措施，從而為印度和巴基斯坦的小農戶提供了更多發展資金。品質平衡產銷監管鏈模式允許混合認證棉和傳統棉，同時降低交易成本，加速了零售商的採用。 H&M、Target和Inditex已宣布，到2030年，他們將100%採購來自經認證的永續項目的棉花，這為認證生產商和貿易商帶來了可觀的市場需求。

將粉紅甲蟲的抗性擴展到基因改造性狀

研發工作已證實，印度粉紅巨型蚧殼蟲族群已對雙毒素Bt基因改造品種產生多基因抗性，導致田間藥效降低，殺蟲劑用量增加。在中國，Cry1Ac抗性等位基因的頻率正在上升，促使監管機構強制要求建立結構化避難所和進行基因替換。實驗室檢測表明，逆轉錄轉座子會誘導幾丁質合成酶途徑發生突變，導致某些品系對Vip3Aa毒素的抗性超過5000倍。為了減緩選擇壓力，科學家提倡使用含有25%非Bt種子的混合種子，目前正在古吉拉突邦進行公私合作推廣計畫的試點工作。生技公司正在試驗RNA干擾構建體和基於CRISPR的基因編輯技術來抑制害蟲腸道酵素的合成，但商業性化應用至少還需要五個種植季，這意味著在此期間，種植者將依賴綜合蟲害管理通訊協定。

細分市場分析

棉花市場報告按地區分類（北美、歐洲、亞太、南美以及中東和非洲）。報告內容包括產量分析（數量）、消費量分析（價值和數量）、出口量分析（價值和數量）、進口量分析（價值和數量）以及價格趨勢分析。市場預測以價值（美元）和數量（公噸）為單位。

區域分析

到2024年，北美將佔全球棉花產值的38.9%，成為最大的區域佔有率。該地區的優勢在於精準的種植設備，這縮短了從棉花收穫到出口裝船的前置作業時間；此外，還有感測器驅動的灌溉系統和全數位化的分級機構。技術的進步保證了纖維品質的穩定性，使工廠能夠最大限度地減少停機時間，並滿足更嚴格的公差要求。諸如永久性棉包標誌等先進的可追溯性方案提高了對強迫勞動法規的遵守程度，使北美棉絨成為面臨日益嚴格審查的品牌的低風險選擇。

非洲預計5.60%的複合年成長率反映了非洲大陸農業現代化進程的宏大圖景。政府對種子、化肥和農藥等投入品的補貼，加上優惠利率的巨額融資，鼓勵小農戶擴大種植面積，不再侷限於主糧作物。國際貨幣基金組織的實地報告指出，貝南的經濟特區促進了當地紗線紡織計畫的發展。埃及繼續優先發展長纖維出口，但水資源短缺迫使政策制定者在糧食作物需求和農業生產之間尋求平衡，鼓勵採用高效滴灌系統和耐鹽品種以保障產量潛力。隨著西非棉絨在孟加拉的銷售成長，貿易商正在實現銷售組合多元化，降低單一買家集中帶來的風險。

亞太地區在全球紡織品生產中仍佔據重要佔有率，但結構性障礙限制了其成長速度。在印度，病蟲害抗藥性週期的加劇促使研究機構推廣性狀關聯種子和強制性避難區規定；而在巴基斯坦，氣候智慧型試驗田透過米級灌溉計畫和綜合養分管理，獲得了更高的收益。在澳大利亞，儘管水資源分配日益緊張，物聯網賦能的虧損灌溉策略仍維持了棉絨產量，從而保障了對東亞市場的出口穩定性。中國的大部分紡織品用於國內消費，政策制定者透過實施進口配額來維持紡織品產業的價格穩定。相較之下，孟加拉已從生產國轉變為主要進口國，凸顯了其市場向垂直專業化經濟的重組。

其他福利：

• Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
• 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章 引言

• 研究假設和市場定義
• 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場情勢

• 市場概覽
• 市場促進因素
  • 主要紡織品進口中心對優質紡織紗線的需求持續強勁。
  • 加速向良好棉花發展協會 (BCI) 採購的過渡
  • 全球服裝巨頭迅速採用再生棉混紡布料
  • 已開發國家的氣候適應型灌溉投資
  • 利用人工智慧驅動的收入預測工具降低商家風險
  • 新興製造業叢集的進口需求不斷成長
• 市場限制
  • 西部花芽蟲對基因改造性狀的抗藥性不斷增強
  • 加強可追溯性和打擊強迫勞動法規
  • 波動的海運運費會影響商家利潤。
  • 在快時尚領域與纖維素纖維的競爭
• 價值/供應鏈分析
• 監管環境
• 技術展望
• PESTEL 分析

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

• 按地區
  • 北美洲
    • 美國
    • 加拿大
    • 墨西哥
  • 南美洲
    • 巴西
    • 阿根廷
  • 歐洲
    • 德國
    • 法國
    • 俄羅斯
    • 希臘
    • 義大利
  • 亞太地區
    • 中國
    • 印度
    • 巴基斯坦
    • 孟加拉
    • 澳洲
  • 中東
    • 土耳其
    • 伊朗
    • 以色列
  • 非洲
    • 埃及
    • 南非
    • 貝南

第6章 競爭情勢

• 相關利益者名單

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

The Cotton Market size is estimated at USD 44.30 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 51.60 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.1% during the forecast period.

Ongoing sustainability mandates are encouraging growers to adopt precision agriculture tools, from satellite-guided seed placement to sensor-driven irrigation scheduling, to protect profitability while lowering resource footprints. The rise of traceability regulations, especially the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, is reshaping global sourcing maps and pushing merchants toward end-to-end digital visibility. Simultaneously, Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) certification is becoming a default procurement requirement among mass-market apparel retailers, shifting bargaining power toward compliant producers. Competitive pressure from cellulosic fibers remains a structural headwind, yet climate-smart irrigation upgrades and AI-enabled yield-forecasting systems are improving margin resilience for growers in developed economies.

Global Cotton Market Trends and Insights

Persistent Demand from Major Textile-Importing Hubs for High-Grade Lint

Bangladesh is poised to become the world's largest lint importer by 2025, with inbound volumes projected to touch 8 million bales as vertically integrated mills seek uniform fiber length and strength to meet premium yarn contracts. This concentration of demand in a handful of Asian manufacturing clusters supports stable price premiums for growers able to certify fiber characteristics with bale-level data. Vietnam remains a top destination despite tariff uncertainties, leveraging competitive labor costs and mature port logistics to offset policy risks. West African lint now satisfies a growing share of Bangladeshi consumption, 39% in fiscal 2022-23, driven by its high micronaire values and the ability of African merchants to guarantee pesticide-residue compliance at origin. These purchasing patterns help diversify global trade flows away from historical US-to-East-Asia corridors, reducing freight risk for mills and merchants alike.

Accelerating Shift to Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) Sourcing

More than 2.13 million farmers across 22 countries now operate under BCI protocols, making the program agriculture's largest independently verified sustainability scheme. Global retailers increased purchases of BCI-equivalent lint by 40% over the latest reporting cycle, turning what began as a voluntary commitment into a non-negotiable line item in supplier contracts. Beyond lower water and pesticide footprints, the standard embeds social safeguards such as gender-inclusion metrics, unlocking incremental development funding for smallholders in India and Pakistan. The mass-balance chain-of-custody model lets traders blend certified and conventional cotton while keeping transaction costs low, a feature that accelerates retailer adoption. Corporate announcements from H&M, Target, and Inditex to source 100% of cotton from verified sustainable programs by 2030 ensure durable forward-demand visibility for compliant ginners and merchants.

Escalating Pink-Bollworm Resistance to GM Traits

Research confirms that pink bollworm populations in India have developed multigenic resistance to dual-toxin Bt varieties, reducing field-level efficacy and driving up insecticide use. In China, resistance allele frequencies to Cry1Ac are rising, prompting regulators to mandate structured refuges and alternative gene stacking. Laboratory assays show retrotransposon-induced mutations in chitin synthase pathways, producing more than 5,000-fold resistance to Vip3Aa toxins in some strains. Scientists advocate seed mixtures containing 25% non-Bt seed to slow selection pressure, a practice now piloted across Gujarat under public-private extension programs. Biotechnology firms are experimenting with RNA-interference constructs and CRISPR-enabled edits that silence pest gut-enzyme synthesis, but commercial deployment remains at least five seasons away, leaving growers dependent on integrated pest-management protocols in the interim.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Surge in Recycled-Cotton Blend Adoption by Global Apparel Majors
2. Climate-Smart Irrigation Investments in Developed Countries
3. Tightening Traceability and Forced-Labor Regulations

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The Cotton Market Report is Segmented by Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, Middle East, and Africa). The Report Includes Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume), Export Analysis (Value and Volume), Import Analysis (Value and Volume), and Price Trend Analysis. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Metric Tons).

Geography Analysis

North America accounts for 38.9% of global cotton value in 2024, the largest regional share worldwide. The region's dominance rests on precision-planting equipment, sensor-driven irrigation, and fully digitized classing offices that compress lead times from harvest to export vessel. Technology depth supports consistent fiber quality, enabling mills to minimize downtime and meet tighter tolerance specifications. Advanced traceability schemes such as permanent bale IDs improve compliance with forced-labor regulations, positioning North American lint as a low-risk choice for brands facing heightened scrutiny.

Africa's 5.60% CAGR projection embodies the continent's broader agricultural modernization narrative. Government subsidy programs covering seed, fertilizer, and insect-control inputs are paired with concessional-rate ginner financing, encouraging smallholders to expand acreage beyond staple grains. IMF field reports credit Benin's Special Economic Zone with catalyzing local yarn-spinning projects, a shift that captures more value domestically and hedges growers against raw-lint-price swings. Egypt continues to prioritize long-staple exports, but water constraints force policymakers to balance cotton with food-crop imperatives, prompting the adoption of high-efficiency drip networks and salt-tolerant cultivars to safeguard yield potential. As West African lint secures higher offtake in Bangladesh, merchants diversify sales portfolios, reducing exposure to single-buyer concentration risks.

Asia-Pacific still accounts for a substantial share of global output, yet structural hurdles temper its growth velocity. India's escalating pest-resistance cycle pushes research institutes toward stacked-trait seeds and mandatory refuge compliance, while Pakistan's climate-smart pilot plots record better returns driven by meter-level irrigation scheduling and integrated nutrient management. Australia's adoption of IoT-enabled deficit-irrigation strategies maintains lint yields despite tightening water allocations, sustaining export reliability into East-Asian markets. China remains a unique case: domestic consumption absorbs most of its harvest, and policymakers apply import-quota levers to manage price stability inside the textile sector. In contrast, Bangladesh's role as a top importer rather than a producer underscores the cotton market's realignment toward vertically specialized economies.

1. Market Overview
2. Market Drivers
3. Market Restraints
4. Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
5. Regulatory Landscape
6. Technological Outlook
7. PESTLE Analysis
8. List of Key Stakeholders

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Persistent demand from major textile-importing hubs for high-grade lint.
  • 4.2.2 Accelerating shift to Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) sourcing
  • 4.2.3 Surge in recycled-cotton blend adoption by global apparel majors
  • 4.2.4 Climate-smart irrigation investments in the developed countries
  • 4.2.5 AI-enabled yield-forecasting tools lowering merchant risk
  • 4.2.6 Rising import demand from emerging manufacturing clusters
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Escalating pink-bollworm resistance to GM traits
  • 4.3.2 Tightening traceability and forced-labor regulations
  • 4.3.3 Volatile ocean-freight rates impacting merchant margins
  • 4.3.4 Competition from cellulosic fibers in fast fashion
• 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)

• 5.1 By Geography (Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Volume and Value), Import Analysis (Volume and Value), Export Analysis (Volume and Value), and Price Trend Analysis)
  • 5.1.1 North America
    • 5.1.1.1 United States
    • 5.1.1.2 Canada
    • 5.1.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.1.2 South America
    • 5.1.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.1.2.2 Argentina
  • 5.1.3 Europe
    • 5.1.3.1 Germany
    • 5.1.3.2 France
    • 5.1.3.3 Russia
    • 5.1.3.4 Greece
    • 5.1.3.5 Italy
  • 5.1.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.1.4.1 China
    • 5.1.4.2 India
    • 5.1.4.3 Pakistan
    • 5.1.4.4 Bangladesh
    • 5.1.4.5 Australia
  • 5.1.5 Middle East
    • 5.1.5.1 Turkey
    • 5.1.5.2 Iran
    • 5.1.5.3 Israel
  • 5.1.6 Africa
    • 5.1.6.1 Egypt
    • 5.1.6.2 South Africa
    • 5.1.6.3 Benin

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 List of Key Stakeholders

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook