查看購物車
  • Simplified Chinese
  • English
  • Japanese
封面
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1844443

越南電力：市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢、統計數據和成長預測（2025-2030 年）

Vietnam Power - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 95 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

價格

※ 本網頁內容可能與最新版本有所差異。詳細情況請與我們聯繫。

簡介目錄

越南電力市場規模預計將從 2025 年的 89 吉瓦成長到 2030 年的 185 吉瓦，預測期間（2025-2030 年）的複合年成長率為 15.76%。

越南電力市場-IMG1

越南電力市場正處於快速擴張的軌道上。這項加速發展得益於《第八號電力發展計畫》（PDP-8）下1,360億美元的政策推動，該計畫的目標是到2030年將可再生能源佔比提高到28-36%，到2050年提高到74-75%。從2023年起，工業電氣化、資料中心的廣泛部署以及停電期間的能源安全將推動資本投資，而新的直接購電協議（DPPA）規則允許私人可再生能源營運商直接與大用戶交易。輸電網的改進，特別是500千伏及以上主幹網的改進，將解決電網瓶頸問題。這些瓶頸曾阻礙了越南一半的裝置容量，並迫使該國在2024年從中國進口25.6億度電的電力。隨著國際開發商進入離岸風力發電試點和液化天然氣計劃，由國營越南電力公司（EVN）主導的競爭格局正在改變。

越南電力市場趨勢與洞察

快速工業化導致電力需求激增

預計2024年工業生產將成長8.4%，5月底全國用電量將達到10億度，促使越南電力公司實施需量反應計畫。預計到2024年，光是半導體產業產值就將達182.3億美元，年複合成長率為11.48%。這是越南「矽谷Delta」計畫的成果，該計畫旨在2030年實現45%的產量來自高科技產品。韓國在2025年初重新奪回了最大投資地位，SK集團向液化天然氣和小型核子反應爐撥款數十億美元。為實現政府2025年8%的GDP目標，年發電量成長率需要達到12-16%，而越南的電力市場則依賴快速發展的電網計劃。外國投資者現在將穩定的電力供應作為位置高科技工廠的先決條件。

政府可再生能源目標及上網電價

修訂後的 PDP-8 將越南 2030 年的電力消耗目標設定為 5,044 億至 5,578 億千瓦時，同時要求可再生能源佔比達到 28% 至 36%，標誌著越南將不再以煤炭為主導。新的價格上限分別為北部陸上風電 1,959.4 越南盾/千瓦時（0.078 美元）和海上計劃1,987.4 越南盾/千瓦時（0.079 美元），在多年指導價停滯之後，恢復了投資者的可見性。然而，與此同時，追溯性電價削減可能會影響價值 130 億美元的運作中太陽能和風能資產，引發國際開發商的抗議。第 57/2025 號法令引入了 DPPA，允許私人電力生產商繞過 EVN 並直接與合格消費者進行交易。這一轉變使越南與東協電網願景一致，即在 2030 年實現該地區 50% 的電力來自清潔能源。

PPA核准緩慢且監管不明確

審核發現上網電價 (FIT) 有不當應用，並暫停了新的待核准購電協議 (PPA)，約有價值 130 億美元的風電和太陽能資產面臨風險。儘管越南表面上計劃在 2030 年將發電量加倍，但這導致 Enel、Equinor 和 Austed 退出。最新的 PDP-8 草案刪除了 6 吉瓦的離岸風力發電區，加劇了人們對政策不確定性的擔憂。電網核准也同樣被推遲，政府數據顯示，16 個強制性電網計劃中，只有兩個在 2024 年的最後期限前完成。這些延誤在短期內限制了越南電力市場的發展步伐。

細分分析

同時，到2030年，風發電工程的複合年成長率將達到16.5%，隨著3.4吉瓦海上聯合循環發電廠的投入運作，風電將逐漸取代火力發電的主導地位。到2035年，越南計畫新建15座發電廠，總合裝置容量達22吉瓦。首座發電廠是越南國家石油公司（PetroVietnam）的812兆瓦仁澤三號（Nhon Trach 3），該發電廠已於2025年1月投入營運。如果競標按計畫進行，到2020年，越南的風電市場規模可能超過20吉瓦。

水力發電仍然是電力可靠性的關鍵支柱，但季節性因素降低了發電的穩定性，這促使人們開展電池試驗，並於2025年2月在寧順省核准了該國首個1.2吉瓦的抽水蓄能水力發電項目。在電價調整後，太陽能光電發電的普及率回升，生質能也獲得了發展動力，一座20兆瓦的稻殼發電廠每年可減少36,800噸二氧化碳排放。長期擱置的核能發電方案透過與俄羅斯、日本和美國的可行性談判重新提上日程，這可能會重塑越南2030年代的電力市場。

其他福利：

  • Excel 格式的市場預測 (ME) 表
  • 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章 引言

  • 研究假設和市場定義
  • 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場狀況

  • 市場概況
  • 市場促進因素
    • 快速工業化導致電力需求激增
    • 政府可再生能源目標及上網電價
    • PDP-8主導外商直接投資流入發電與輸電網路
    • 電網現代化基金（亞洲開發銀行、日本國際協力機構）
    • 解鎖離岸風電競標管道
    • 資料中心繁榮推動彈性發電需求
  • 市場限制
    • PPA核准延遲和監管不確定性
    • ESG主導的煤炭資金籌措緊縮
    • 太陽能發電廠的土地徵用問題
    • 高壓設備依賴進口
  • 供應鏈分析
  • 監管狀況
  • 技術展望
  • 波特五力模型
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 買方的議價能力
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭對手之間的競爭
  • PESTLE分析

第5章市場規模及成長預測

  • 按發電源分類
    • 火力
    • 水力發電
    • 太陽熱
    • 風力發電（陸上和海上）
    • 生質能和垃圾焚化發電
    • 其他電源
  • 依輸配電電壓等級（僅定性分析）
    • 500千伏及以上
    • 220～330 kV
    • 110～220 kV
    • 低於110千伏
  • 按最終用戶
    • 住房
    • 商業和工業
    • 公共產業

第6章 競爭態勢

  • 市場集中度
  • 策略性舉措（併購、夥伴關係、購電協議）
  • 市場佔有率分析（主要企業的市場排名/佔有率）
  • 公司簡介
    • Vietnam Electricity（EVN）
    • PetroVietnam Power Corporation（PV Power）
    • AES Corporation（Vietnam）
    • JERA Co., Inc.
    • Trung Nam Group
    • Mekong Energy Company Ltd
    • Vietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Company
    • Sharp Energy Solutions Corporation
    • B.Grimm Power（Vietnam）
    • Siemens Energy Vietnam
    • General Electric Vietnam
    • Vestas Vietnam
    • Orsted Vietnam
    • Sunseap/EDP Renewables APAC
    • Trina Solar Vietnam
    • T&T Group Power
    • Bamboo Capital Group（BCG Energy）
    • Hitachi Energy Vietnam
    • SP Group Vietnam
    • Power Engineering Consulting JSC 2（PECC2）

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

簡介目錄
Product Code: 46269

The Vietnam Power Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 89 gigawatt in 2025 to 185 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 15.76% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

Vietnam Power - Market - IMG1

The Vietnam power market is on a rapid build trajectory. A USD 136 billion policy push under Power Development Plan 8 (PDP-8) underpins this acceleration, targeting 28-36% renewable energy by 2030 and 74-75% by 2050. Industrial electrification, data-center proliferation, and post-2023 blackout energy-security pledges are lifting capital spending, while new Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) rules open space for private renewable producers to transact directly with large users. Transmission upgrades-the above 500 kV backbone in particular-remove the grid bottlenecks that once stranded half of the installed capacity and forced 2.56 billion kWh of imports from China in 2024. A moderate competitive landscape dominated by state-owned EVN is evolving as international developers anchor offshore-wind pilots and LNG projects.

Vietnam Power Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Industrialisation-Led Electricity Demand Surge

Industrial production jumped 8.4% 2024, lifting nationwide electricity use to 1 billion kWh in late May and prompting EVN to deploy demand-response programs. The semiconductor sector alone is valued at USD 18.23 billion in 2024 and is expanding at 11.48% CAGR, an outcome of Vietnam's "Silicon Delta" policy that targets 45% of output from high-tech goods by 2030. South Korea reclaimed the top-investor slot in early 2025, with SK Group allocating multibillion-dollar budgets to LNG and small-modular reactors. Meeting the government's 8% GDP objective for 2025 requires 12-16% yearly additions to generation, magnifying the Vietnam power market dependency on fast-track grid projects. Foreign investors now cite a stable electricity supply as a precondition for high-tech plant siting.

Government Renewable-Energy Targets & FITs

The revised PDP-8 sets a 500.4-557.8 billion kWh consumption band for 2030 while mandating that renewables claim 28-36% of the mix, signaling a pivot away from coal dominance. New price caps place onshore wind at VND 1,959.4/kWh (USD 0.078) in the north and near-shore projects at VND 1,987.4/kWh (USD 0.079), restoring investor visibility after years of stalled guidance.Yet simultaneous retroactive tariff cuts threaten USD 13 billion in operating solar and wind assets, sparking protests from international developers. Decree 57/2025 introduced DPPAs, allowing private generators to bypass EVN and transact directly with qualified consumers, a reform expected to lower state-budget strain and quicken renewable deployment. These shifts align Vietnam with the ASEAN Power Grid vision that foresees clean sources covering up to 50% of regional output by 2030.

Slow PPA Approval & Regulatory Uncertainty

Around USD 13 billion in wind and solar assets are at risk after auditors found mis-applied FIT rules and suspended new PPAs pending review, prompting exits by Enel, Equinor, and Orsted despite Vietnam's headline plan to double capacity by 2030. A 6 GW offshore-wind zone was removed from the latest PDP-8 draft, deepening perceptions of policy volatility. Transmission approvals are equally sluggish; government data show only 2 of 16 mandated grid projects met 2024 timelines. These delays restrain the Vietnam power market's tempo in the short run.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. PDP-8-Driven FDI Inflow in Generation & Grid
  2. Grid-Modernisation Funding (ADB, JICA)
  3. ESG-Driven Coal-Financing Squeeze

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Thermal plants controlled 45% of the Vietnam power market share in 2024, anchored by coal units that stabilized the grid during drought-triggered hydro outages that removed 5,000 MW from service.At the same time, wind projects are on a 16.5% CAGR track through 2030, positioning the segment to chip away at thermal primacy as 3.4 GW offshore complexes come online. LNG is the mid-transition bridge; 15 new plants totaling 22 GW are scheduled by 2035, beginning with PetroVietnam's 812 MW Nhon Trach 3 unit launched in January 2025. The Vietnam power market size for wind generation could top 20 GW by decade-end if auctions clear on schedule.

Hydropower remains the reliability linchpin, but seasonality undermines consistency, prompting battery trials and the nation's first 1,200 MW pumped-storage scheme in Ninh Thuan, approved in February 2025. Solar deployment has rebounded after tariff resets, while biomass gained traction with a 20 MW rice-husk plant that eliminates 36,800 tons of CO2 annually. Emerging nuclear options, long tabled, re-entered debate via feasibility talks with Russia, Japa,n and the United States, potentially resizing the Vietnam power market in the 2030s.

The Vietnam Power Market Report is Segmented by Generation Source (Thermal, Hydro, Solar, Wind, Biomass and Waste-To-Energy, and Other Sources), T&D Voltage Level (Above 500 KV, 220 To 330 KV, 110 To 220 KV, and Below 110 KV), and End-User (Residential, Commercial and Industrial, and Utilities). The Market Size and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

  1. Vietnam Electricity (EVN)
  2. PetroVietnam Power Corporation (PV Power)
  3. AES Corporation (Vietnam)
  4. JERA Co., Inc.
  5. Trung Nam Group
  6. Mekong Energy Company Ltd
  7. Vietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Company
  8. Sharp Energy Solutions Corporation
  9. B.Grimm Power (Vietnam)
  10. Siemens Energy Vietnam
  11. General Electric Vietnam
  12. Vestas Vietnam
  13. Orsted Vietnam
  14. Sunseap / EDP Renewables APAC
  15. Trina Solar Vietnam
  16. T&T Group Power
  17. Bamboo Capital Group (BCG Energy)
  18. Hitachi Energy Vietnam
  19. SP Group Vietnam
  20. Power Engineering Consulting JSC 2 (PECC2)

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rapid industrialisation-led electricity demand surge
    • 4.2.2 Government renewable-energy targets & FITs
    • 4.2.3 PDP-8-driven FDI inflow in generation & grid
    • 4.2.4 Grid-modernisation funding (ADB, JICA)
    • 4.2.5 Offshore-wind auction pipeline unlock
    • 4.2.6 Data-centre boom raising flexible-generation need
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Slow PPA approval & regulatory uncertainty
    • 4.3.2 ESG-driven coal-financing squeeze
    • 4.3.3 Land-acquisition conflicts for solar farms
    • 4.3.4 Import-dependency for high-voltage equipment
  • 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porters Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
  • 4.8 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

  • 5.1 By Generation Source
    • 5.1.1 Thermal
    • 5.1.2 Hydro
    • 5.1.3 Solar
    • 5.1.4 Wind (Onshore and Offshore)
    • 5.1.5 Biomass and Waste-to-Energy
    • 5.1.6 Other Sources
  • 5.2 By T&D Voltage Level (Qualitative analysis only)
    • 5.2.1 Above 500 kV
    • 5.2.2 220 to 330 kV
    • 5.2.3 110 to 220 kV
    • 5.2.4 Below 110 kV
  • 5.3 By End-User
    • 5.3.1 Residential
    • 5.3.2 Commercial and Industrial
    • 5.3.3 Utilities

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Vietnam Electricity (EVN)
    • 6.4.2 PetroVietnam Power Corporation (PV Power)
    • 6.4.3 AES Corporation (Vietnam)
    • 6.4.4 JERA Co., Inc.
    • 6.4.5 Trung Nam Group
    • 6.4.6 Mekong Energy Company Ltd
    • 6.4.7 Vietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Company
    • 6.4.8 Sharp Energy Solutions Corporation
    • 6.4.9 B.Grimm Power (Vietnam)
    • 6.4.10 Siemens Energy Vietnam
    • 6.4.11 General Electric Vietnam
    • 6.4.12 Vestas Vietnam
    • 6.4.13 Orsted Vietnam
    • 6.4.14 Sunseap / EDP Renewables APAC
    • 6.4.15 Trina Solar Vietnam
    • 6.4.16 T&T Group Power
    • 6.4.17 Bamboo Capital Group (BCG Energy)
    • 6.4.18 Hitachi Energy Vietnam
    • 6.4.19 SP Group Vietnam
    • 6.4.20 Power Engineering Consulting JSC 2 (PECC2)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment