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市場調查報告書
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1197754

核電廠退役市場——增長、趨勢和預測 (2023-2028)

Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 125 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

到今年年底，全球核電站退役市場預計將達到 20.2749 億美元，預計在預測期內將以 13.8% 的複合年增長率增長。

接受調查的市場受到 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行的中度影響，但正在恢復並達到大流行前的水平。

市場增長的主要驅動力是越來越多的核反應堆即將退役、可再生能源（例如風能和太陽能）價格下降以及對環境問題的敏感性越來越高。

但是，由於有利的政府政策而延長核電站的壽命預計會阻礙市場增長。

德國、英國和韓國等多個國家的核淘汰政策有望為國內外運營商創造機會，貢獻發展退役市場所需的專業知識。

預計北美將成為核電廠退役增長最快的市場，使美國成為該地區主要的退役熱點之一。

核動力反應堆退役的市場趨勢

商業反應堆領域有望主導市場

截至 2022 年 10 月，在 32 個國家/地區共有 437 座商業核電站在運行。 美國擁有最大的核發電能力，核發電量也比其他國家大。 法國在核容量方面排名第二，在核發電方面排名第二。

商業核電站的關閉和退役涉及多個因素，包括經濟、監管和社會因素。 幾個主要因素降低了核能的成本競爭力，包括其運行壽命的結束以及太陽能和風能等替代能源發電成本的下降。 2011 年福島核事故後，全球加強了核安全措施，導致與基礎設施升級相關的額外成本以及運營和維護成本增加。 出於這個原因，許多老舊的商業反應堆運營商選擇讓使用壽命為 40 年並且可以通過基礎設施升級再延長 20 年的老舊反應堆退役。

此外，世界各國政府在政策層面的努力導致了核電站的關閉。 許多政府計劃減少其能源結構中的核電。 此類監管政策在西歐國家很常見，這些國家盛產可再生能源，對運營商業核電站的環境影響和潛在風險深表擔憂。

德國計劃根據其國家政策，到 2022 年底關閉所有核反應堆。 2017年，瑞士決定逐步淘汰該國的核電站。 2020 年 9 月，比利時政府簽署了一項協議，重申其打算在 2025 年之前逐步淘汰核電。 西班牙已承諾到 2030 年關閉其七個運行中的商業反應堆中的四個，其餘三個在未來五年內關閉，並在 2035 年之前完全淘汰核電。底部。

可再生能源技術的發展和經濟的改善正在推動其大規模發展。 世界各國正在建設與可再生能源相關的龐大基礎設施，這抵消了對核反應堆的需求。 核能正在被可再生能源取代，導致反應堆關閉。 因此，可再生能源開發的激增正在對全球核電站退役市場產生巨大的推動作用。

因此，由於上述因素，預計商用核反應堆將在預測期內主導所研究的市場。

北美有望實現顯著增長

北美是世界上運行核反應堆數量最多的地區之一。 隨著美國、加拿大和墨西哥的需求，核電廠退役市場預計將出現顯著增長。

美國是最大的核電站之一，2021年佔世界核發電量的30%。 2021 年中國核反應堆發電量為 778.15TWh，比 2020 年小幅下降 1.48%。

截至 2022 年 8 月，美國在 30 個州有 92 個核反應堆在運行，總容量為 94.7 GWe，由 30 個電力公司提供服務。 還有兩個反應堆在建，總反應堆容量為2.23 GWe。

在美國，核電時代已經結束，核電站退役成為重要產業。 私營公司購買了這些工廠並接管了許可證、責任、退役資金、廢物合同等。 約有 41 座總計 1997 萬千瓦的核反應堆已關閉，最近關閉的是密歇根州的 Palisades 核電站，該電站於 2022 年 5 月關閉。 2021年12月，Holtec International收購了位於密歇根州Covert的Palisades核電站，並獲得核管理委員會的退役和拆除批准。 預計到 2030 年將關閉約 198 個反應堆。

美國的核反應堆正在老化。 美國核管理委員會 (NRC) 正在考慮通過後續許可證更新 (SLR) 計劃將運營許可證延長 60 至 80 年或更長時間的申請。 但最近，一些電廠業主選擇了提前45-50歲退休。

低成本頁巖氣發電的激烈競爭削弱了國內核電行業的競爭力。 創紀錄的低批發電價加上延長壽命 (PLEX) 升級的高成本正在推動核電站提前退役。

多年來，加拿大一直是核研究和技術的領導者，出口加拿大開發的核反應堆系統。 2021 年，加拿大核電站發電量為 92.6TWh，約佔其總發電量的 15%。 2022 年 8 月，安大略省關閉了 19 座運行中的反應堆（總容量 13,624 兆瓦）和大約 6 座反應堆（總容量 2.14 兆瓦）。

截至 2022 年 8 月，加拿大擁有各種退役研究和原型動力反應堆。 這些反應堆處於安全儲存狀態，等待最終退役。 這些反應堆包括 WR-1、位於喬克河實驗室 (CRL) 的 NRX 反應堆、位於 CRL 的 MAPLE-1 和 MAPLE-2（多用途應用物理晶格實驗）反應堆，以及位於 QC 貝坎古特的 Gentilly 1 號核電站。位於安大略省羅爾夫頓的核電示範 (NPD) 反應堆和位於安大略省金卡丁的道格拉斯角核電站。 預計這些將在預測期內推動對加拿大核電站退役市場的需求。

因此，預計在預測期內，北美核電廠退役市場將出現顯著增長。

核電廠退役市場競爭者分析

核電廠退役市場較為分散。 市場上的主要參與者（排名不分先後）是 Babcock International Group PLC、Fluor Corporation、GE Hitachi Nuclear Services、AECOM、Westinghouse Electric Company 等。

其他好處

  • Excel 格式的市場預測 (ME) 表
  • 三個月的分析師支持

內容

第一章介紹

  • 調查範圍
  • 調查假設

第 2 章執行摘要

第三章研究方法論

第 4 章市場概述

  • 簡介
  • 到 2027 年的市場規模和需求預測（單位：百萬美元）
  • 到 2027 年的核能發電量預測 (TWh)
  • 近期趨勢和發展
  • 市場動態
    • 司機
    • 約束因素
  • 供應鏈分析
  • 波特的五力分析
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 消費者的議價能力
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭公司之間的敵對關係

第 5 章市場細分

  • 按反應堆類型
    • 壓水反應堆
    • 壓水重水反應堆
    • 沸水反應堆
    • 高溫氣體反應堆
    • 液態金屬快中子增殖反應堆
    • 其他反應堆
  • 通過使用
    • 商業動力反應堆
    • 用於發電的原型爐
    • 研究堆
  • 按容量
    • 100MW 或以下
    • 小於 100-1000 兆瓦
    • 1000MW 或更多
  • 按地區查看
    • 北美
    • 亞太地區
    • 歐洲
    • 南美洲
    • 中東

第六章競爭格局

  • 併購、合資、合作、協議
  • 主要參與者採用的策略
  • 公司簡介
    • Babcock International Group PLC
    • James Fisher & Sons PLC
    • NorthStar Group Services Inc.
    • Fluor Corporation
    • GE Hitachi Nuclear Services
    • Studsvik AB
    • Enercon Services Inc.
    • Orano Group
    • Aecom
    • Bechtel Group Inc.
    • Westinghouse Electric Company

第7章 市場機會未來動向

簡介目錄
Product Code: 53210

The global nuclear power reactor decommissioning market is estimated to reach USD 2027.49 million by the end of the current year, and it is projected to register a CAGR of 13.8% during the forecast period.

Although the market studied was moderately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it has been recovering and reached pre-pandemic levels.

The major factors driving the market's growth are the increasing number of nuclear reactors reaching operational retirement, declining prices of renewable power generation sources (i.e., wind and solar), and growing sensitivity toward environmental issues.

However, the lifetime extension of nuclear power plants with favorable government policies is expected to hinder the market's growth.

Nuclear phase-out policies in several countries, such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and South Korea, are expected to create opportunities for foreign and domestic players to provide the necessary expertise for the country's needs to develop their decommissioning market.

North America is expected to be the fastest-growing market for nuclear power reactor decommissioning, with the United States being one of the significant decommissioning hotspots in the region.

Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Market Trends

Commercial Reactors Segment is Expected to Dominate the Market

As of October 2022, 437 commercial nuclear power plants were in operation across 32 countries. The United States had the largest nuclear electricity generation capacity and generated more nuclear electricity than any other country. France has the second-largest nuclear electricity generation capacity and second-highest nuclear electricity generation.

Several factors are responsible for the shutdown and decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants, including economic, regulatory, and social factors. Some primary factors, such as the end of operational life and the fall in the cost of alternative energy generation sources, like solar and wind, made nuclear energy less cost-competitive. Following the Fukushima disaster of 2011, nuclear safety protocols have been upgraded across the world, which levied additional costs for the upgradation of infrastructure and increased operations and maintenance costs. Due to this, operators of many older commercial reactors, which have an operating life of 40 years and can be extended by 20 more years with infrastructural upgrades, are opting to decommission older units. ​

The policy-level initiatives from governments across the world have also led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants. The governments in many countries planned to reduce nuclear power in the energy mix of their countries. Such regulatory policies are prevalent among Western European states with a strong renewable portfolio and serious concerns about the environmental footprint and potential risk of operating commercial nuclear power plants. ​

As per its national policy, Germany plans to shut down all its reactors by the end of 2022. In 2017, Switzerland voted to phase-out nuclear power plants from the country. In September 2020, the Belgian government signed an agreement reaffirming its commitment to phasing-out nuclear power by 2025. Spain declared that it will close four of its seven operating commercial reactors by 2030 and close the rest three reactors within the next five years, completely phasing out nuclear generation by 2035. ​

The development of renewable energy technologies and increasing economic viability have led to its massive development. Countries across the world are creating huge infrastructures pertaining to renewable power, which has offset the requirement for nuclear reactors. Nuclear power generation is being replaced by renewable energy sources, which led to the closure of nuclear reactors. Therefore, the surge in the development of renewable energy sources is a big boost for the global nuclear reactor decommissioning market.​

Therefore, due to the aforementioned factors, commercial rectors are expected to dominate the market studied during the forecast period.

North America is Expected to Witness Significant Growth

North America is one of the largest regions in terms of operable reactors worldwide. The nuclear power reactor decommissioning market is expected to witness significant growth due to the demand from the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

The United States is one of the largest nuclear power producers, accounting for 30% of the global nuclear power generated in 2021. The country's nuclear reactors produced 778.15 TWh of electricity in 2021, representing a slight decline of 1.48% from 2020.

As of August 2022, the United States has 92 operating nuclear power reactors with a combined capacity of 94.7 GWe in 30 states, used by 30 different power companies. Two reactors are under construction with a total of 2.23 GWe.

As the era of nuclear power winds down in the United States, the decommissioning of nuclear power plants is becoming a significant industry. Private companies are acquiring these plants, taking over their licenses, liability, decommissioning funds, and waste contracts. Around 41 reactors with a combined capacity of 19.97 GW were shut down, the latest being the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan shut down in May 2022. In December 2021, HoltecInternational received approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to acquire the Palisades plant in Covert, Michigan, to decommission and dismantle the plant. Around 198 reactors are expected to shut down by 2030.

The nuclear reactor fleet of the United States is aging. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is considering applications for extending operating licenses beyond 60 to 80 years with its subsequent license renewal (SLR) program. However, some plant owners recently opted for early retirement of their nuclear units at 45 to 50 years old.

Intense competition from electricity generation using low-cost shale gas hurt the competitiveness of the nuclear power industry in the country. Record low wholesale electricity prices and the high cost of life extension (PLEX) upgrades have together driven early nuclear plant retirements.

For many years, Canada has been a leader in nuclear research and technology, exporting reactor systems developed in Canada. In 2021, Canada generated 92.6 TWh of electricity from nuclear power plants, accounting for about 15% of the total electricity generation mix. In Ontario, 19 operable reactors with a combined capacity of 13,624 MW and around six reactors with a combined capacity of 2.14 GW were shut down in August 2022.

As of August 2022, Canada has a variety of research and prototype power reactors that are no longer in use and have been shut down. These reactors are in a safe storage state and awaiting final decommissioning. Some of these reactors include the WR-1, the NRX reactor at Chalk River Laboratories (CRL), the MAPLE-1 and MAPLE-2 (Multipurpose Applied Physics Lattice Experiment) reactors at CRL, the Gentilly-1 nuclear generating station in Becancour, QC, the Nuclear Power Demonstration (NPD) reactor in Rolphton, ON, and the Douglas Point nuclear-generating station in Kincardine, ON. These are expected to drive the demand for the Canadian nuclear power reactor decommissioning market during the forecast period.

Therefore, North America is expected to witness significant growth in the nuclear power reactor decommissioning market during the forecast period.

Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Market Competitor Analysis

The nuclear power reactor decommissioning market is moderately fragmented. Some of the major players in the market (in no particular order) are Babcock International Group PLC, Fluor Corporation, GE Hitachi Nuclear Services, AECOM, and Westinghouse Electric Company.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Scope of Study
  • 1.2 Study Assumptions

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4 MARKET OVERVIEW

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Market Size and Demand Forecast in USD million, till 2027
  • 4.3 Nuclear Power Generation Forecast in TWh, till 2027
  • 4.4 Recent Trends and Developments
  • 4.5 Market Dynamics
    • 4.5.1 Drivers
    • 4.5.2 Restraints
  • 4.6 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes Products and Services
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

  • 5.1 By Reactor Type
    • 5.1.1 Pressurized Water Reactor
    • 5.1.2 Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor
    • 5.1.3 Boiling Water Reactor
    • 5.1.4 High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactor
    • 5.1.5 Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor
    • 5.1.6 Other Reactor Types
  • 5.2 By Application
    • 5.2.1 Commercial Power Reactor
    • 5.2.2 Prototype Power Reactor
    • 5.2.3 Research Reactor
  • 5.3 By Capacity
    • 5.3.1 Below 100 MW
    • 5.3.2 100-1000 MW
    • 5.3.3 Above 1000 MW
  • 5.4 By Geography
    • 5.4.1 North America
    • 5.4.2 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.4.3 Europe
    • 5.4.4 South America
    • 5.4.5 Middle East

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
  • 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
  • 6.3 Company Profiles
    • 6.3.1 Babcock International Group PLC
    • 6.3.2 James Fisher & Sons PLC
    • 6.3.3 NorthStar Group Services Inc.
    • 6.3.4 Fluor Corporation
    • 6.3.5 GE Hitachi Nuclear Services
    • 6.3.6 Studsvik AB
    • 6.3.7 Enercon Services Inc.
    • 6.3.8 Orano Group
    • 6.3.9 Aecom
    • 6.3.10 Bechtel Group Inc.
    • 6.3.11 Westinghouse Electric Company

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS