小口徑軍用彈藥:市場及技術的預測 (～2033年)

小口徑軍用彈藥市場正進入一個多年上升週期。烏克蘭戰爭和北約重新調整戰備目標導致彈藥消耗量增加，使得市場需求從和平時期的 "維持" 水準轉向持續的、有計劃的採購項目。目前，歐洲引領著這一成長，而美國仍是一個穩定且強勁的需求市場。這為合格的供應商和投資者創造了穩健的業務管道。

然而，供應仍是最大的限制因素。底火、推進劑（例如硝化纖維素）、黃銅和熟練勞動力等因素的瓶頸限制了產能。此外，新的生產設施，例如彈殼拉拔、底火製造、彈頭組裝和裝填線（LAP），通常需要一到三年的時間才能達到穩定、合格的生產水準。對於能夠迅速行動的公司而言，這種供需失衡為提價、提高訂單積壓可見性以及建立長期客戶關係創造了極具吸引力的機會。

可擴展的韌性是成功策略的核心，包括簽訂多年框架合約和可預測的培訓負荷，以確保生產線持續運轉；靈活的工具能夠高效地在 5.56mm/7.62mm/9.50mm 和 6.8x51mm 彈藥系列之間切換；垂直整合或簽訂底火、藥物和彈殼的長期採購生產率； (OEE)；以及符合北約/STANAG 標準並具備互通性，這些都是出口能力和認證速度的關鍵差異化因素。

隨著各國追求彈藥自給自足，市場結構預計將繼續保持分散狀態，這為合作、合資和併購等戰略舉措創造了空間。 同時，貿易摩擦和關稅政策推高了原材料成本，並使跨境採購變得更加複雜，這使得那些實現生產基地多元化、區域化和分散化、實施雙重認證體係以及簽訂長期能源和推進劑合約的公司更具優勢。這向企業領導者傳遞了一個明確的訊息：我們正處於強勁的上升趨勢中，而供應能力有限。因此，那些及早行動並建立具有韌性、合規性和成本競爭力的體系的公司，很可能佔市場領導地位。

本報告分析了小口徑軍用彈藥的採購路徑，並評估了烏克蘭戰爭如何重塑市場結構。本研究提供了市場規模模型和對採購機會的詳細見解，系統地描繪了每個全球區域的機會範圍、規模和時間線。此外，本研究也清楚闡述了當前小口徑軍用彈藥市場的商業環境，並更好地預測了其未來的發展趨勢。

刊載企業

目錄

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 簡介

第3章 技術與開發

• 技術概述
• 小口徑彈藥類型
• 無鉛彈藥（綠彈藥）
• 美軍新口徑：6.8毫米
• 步槍口徑模組化
• 輕型聚合物和金屬彈藥
• 庫存管理支援技術
• 反無人機彈藥（反無人機彈）
• 俄羅斯和中國的科技趨勢

第4章 重要的原料

第5章 市場概要

• 預測期間的小口徑軍用彈藥市場數量分佈:各地區
• 競爭情形
• 歐洲
  • 歐洲聯盟
  • EU的對策:SAFE，ASAP，EDIRPA
  • 波羅的海地區
  • 北歐地區
  • 法國
  • 波蘭
• 北美
  • 美國
  • 加拿大
• 中國和俄羅斯市場概要

第6章 市場動態與預測要素

• 市場區隔
• 促進因素
• 趨勢
• 機會
• 課題
• 預測要素與註記

第7章 各國分析

• 概要
• 北美
  • 美國

第8章 小口徑軍用彈藥市場:各地區

• 小口徑軍用彈藥市場概要:各地區
• 小口徑軍用彈藥市場概要:地區·caliber
  • 北美市場概要
  • 歐洲市場概要
  • 亞太地區市場概要
  • 中東·非洲市場概要
  • 南美市場概要

第9章 小口徑軍用彈藥市場:caliber

• 小口徑軍用彈藥市場概要:caliber
• 小口徑軍用彈藥市場概要:caliber·各地區
  • 5.45 mm
  • 5.56 mm
  • 5.7 mm
  • 6.5 mm
  • 6.8 mm
  • 7.62 mm
  • 8.6 mm
  • 9 mm
  • 11.43 mm
  • 12.7 mm
  • 12量規

第10章 機會分析

• 複利成長率
  • 各地區

第11章 企業

• BAE Systems Plc
• Beretta Holding
• Czechoslovak Group
• EDGE Group PJSC
• FN Herstal
• GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
• MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi) Inc.
• Nammo AS
• Olin Winchester
• PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
• Poongsan
• SIA Ammunity
• Sig Sauer
• Thales

第12章 結果·結論

第13章 關於市場預測

附錄A:提及的企業

附錄B:簡稱

Market forecast by Region and Ammunition Calibre. Country Analysis, Market and Technology Overview including Critical Raw Materials, Opportunity Analysis, and Leading Company Profiles

The small calibre military ammunition market is entering a multi-year upcycle. Elevated consumption linked to the war in Ukraine and the resetting of NATO readiness targets have shifted demand from peacetime "sustain" levels to durable, programme-based buys. Europe currently leads the expansion, with the United States remaining a strong, steady segment-together underpinning a robust pipeline for qualified suppliers and investors.

Supply remains the gating factor. Bottlenecks in primers, energetics (e.g., nitrocellulose), brass, and skilled labour are constraining output, while new case-draw, primer, bullet-assembly and LAP lines typically require one to three years to reach stable, qualified production. For businesses prepared to act, this imbalance creates attractive pricing, backlog visibility, and an opportunity to lock in long-term customer relationships.

Winning strategies centre on scalable resilience: multi-year framework agreements and predictable training-load volumes to keep lines warm; flexible tooling to swing efficiently across 5.56/7.62/9/.50 and 6.8x51 families; vertical integration or long-term offtakes in primers, powders and brass; and productivity levers such as automation, yield management and OEE. Interoperability and NATO/STANAG conformance remain essential differentiators for exportability and speed to qualification.

Market structure will stay fragmented as nations pursue ammunition autonomy, opening room for partnerships, JVs, and targeted M&A. At the same time, trade frictions and tariff regimes raise input costs and complicate cross-border sourcing-favouring operators that diversify suppliers, regionalise footprints, dual-qualify materials and secure long-dated energetics and energy contracts. For business leaders, the message is clear: the cycle is strong, capacity is scarce, and early movers that build resilient, compliant, cost-competitive platforms will set the pace.

This study examines procurement pathways for small-calibre military ammunition and assesses how the war in Ukraine is reshaping the market. The scale and value of the opportunity favour both new entrants and well-established manufacturers seeking to expand share. Even if the conflict ends in the near term, enduring security requirements and stockpile replenishment will sustain robust demand for years to come.

The study provides a model of the market size, in-depth insights procurement opportunities, mapping out the scope, scale, and timelines of opportunities worldwide. It also offers a solid understanding of the current situation in the small calibre military ammunition business landscape and what should be expected for the future.

Covered in this study:

• Overview: A strong insight of the Small Military Ammunition market in the military market during 2025-2033, including highlights of the demand drivers, trends, and challenges. It also provides a snapshot of the spending with respect to regions as well as segments and sheds light on the emergence of new technologies.
• Market Dynamics: Snapshots into the technological developments in the small calibre military ammunition market. It also analyses the market landscape in key regions, how that is shaped by the war in Ukraine and the political and regulatory efforts undertaken to address a series of issues.
• Segment Analysis: Insights into the various calibres, end-use and regions from a segmental perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each segment.
• Regional Analysis: Insights into the systems market from a regional perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each region.
• Competitive landscape Analysis: Analysis of the competitive landscape of this industry. It provides an overview of key companies, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a SWOT analysis.

Segmentation

The market is segmented by Region and Calibre of the ammunition.

Region

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Middle East & Africa
• Latin America

Calibres

• 5.45mm
• 5.56mm
• 5.7mm
• 6.5mm
• 6.8mm
• 7.62mm
• 8.6mm (.338)
• 9mm
• 0.45APC (11.43mm)
• 12.7mm (.50 cal.)

Reasons to buy:

• This report provides a global view of efforts to scale small-calibre military ammunition production, both to meet Ukraine's wartime consumption and to replenish national stockpiles.
• It identifies and rigorously analyses the forces reshaping the market, including policy decisions, cross-industry collaborations, supply-chain redesign, and the availability of critical raw materials.
• It maps regional production profiles and assistance flows to Ukraine, clarifying how these dynamics are redirecting procurement worldwide.
• Finally, it highlights the principal opportunities and risks so decision-makers can act with confidence to grow their businesses.

Companies Listed:

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Trends and Insights
• 1.2. Main Findings
  • 1.2.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
  • 1.2.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
• 1.3. Key Conclusions

2. Introduction

• 2.1. Scope
• 2.2. Definitions
• 2.3. Methodology
• 2.4. Who will benefit from this study?

3. Technologies and Developments

• 3.1. Technology overview
• 3.2. Types of small calibre ammunition
• 3.3. Ammunition without lead - green ammunition
• 3.4. A new calibre for the US military - 6.8mm
• 3.5. Calibre modularity in rifles
• 3.6. Polymer and metallic lightweight ammunition
• 3.7. Technologies to manage inventories
• 3.8. Anti-drone munition
• 3.9. Technological developments in Russia and China

4. Critical Raw Materials

5. Market Overview

• 5.1. Introduction
• 5.2. Small calibre ammunition market volume distribution over forecast period by Region
• 5.3. Competitive landscape
• 5.4. Europe
  • 5.4.1. European Union
  • 5.4.2. EU Instruments: SAFE, ASAP and EDIRPA
  • 5.4.3. Baltic region
  • 5.4.4. Nordic region
  • 5.4.5. France
  • 5.4.6. Poland
• 5.5. North America
  • 5.5.1. United States
  • 5.5.2. Canada
• 5.6. Overview of the Chinese and Russian markets

6. Market Dynamics and Forecast Factors

• 6.1. Market segmentation
• 6.2. Drivers
• 6.3. Trends
• 6.4. Opportunities
• 6.5. Challenges
• 6.6. Forecast Factors and Notes

7. Country Analysis

• 7.1. Overview
• 7.2. North America
  • 7.2.1. United States

8. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region

• 8.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Region overview
• 8.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Region by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.1. North America market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.2. Europe market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.3. Asia Pacific market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.4. Middle-East & Africa market by Calibre overview
  • 8.2.5. Latin America market by Calibre overview

9. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre

• 9.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Calibre overview
• 9.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Calibre by Region overview
  • 9.2.1. 5.45 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.2. 5.56 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.3. 5.7 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.4. 6.5 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.5. 6.8 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.6. 7.62 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.7. 8.6 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.8. 9 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.9. 11.43 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.10. 12.7 mm market by Region overview
  • 9.2.11. 12 Gauge market by Region overview

10. Opportunity Analysis

• 10.1. Introduction
• 10.2. Compound Growth Rates
  • 10.2.1. By Region
  • 10.2.2. By Calibre

11. Companies

• 11.1. BAE Systems Plc
  • 11.1.1. Introduction
  • 11.1.2. Products and services
  • 11.1.3. Recent Contracts
  • 11.1.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.2. Beretta Holding
  • 11.2.1. Introduction
  • 11.2.2. Products and services
  • 11.2.3. Recent contracts and developments
  • 11.2.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.3. Czechoslovak Group
  • 11.3.1. Introduction
  • 11.3.2. Products and services
  • 11.3.3. Recent contracts and developments
  • 11.3.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.4. EDGE Group PJSC
  • 11.4.1. Introduction
  • 11.4.2. SWOT Analysis
• 11.5. FN Herstal
  • 11.5.1. Introduction
  • 11.5.2. Products and services
  • 11.5.3. Recent contracts and developments
  • 11.5.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.6. GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
  • 11.6.1. Introduction
• 11.7. MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi) Inc.
  • 11.7.1. Introduction
  • 11.7.2. Products and services
  • 11.7.3. Recent developments and contracts
  • 11.7.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.8. Nammo AS
  • 11.8.1. Introduction
  • 11.8.2. Products and services
  • 11.8.3. Recent developments
  • 11.8.4. Recent Contracts
  • 11.8.5. SWOT Analysis
• 11.9. Olin Winchester
  • 11.9.1. Introduction
  • 11.9.2. Products and services
  • 11.9.3. Recent Contracts
  • 11.9.4. SWOT Analysis
• 11.10. PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
  • 11.10.1. Introduction
  • 11.10.2. Products and services
  • 11.10.3. Recent developments and contracts
  • 11.10.4. Recent Contracts
  • 11.10.5. SWOT Analysis
• 11.11. Poongsan
  • 11.11.1. Introduction
  • 11.11.2. Products and services
  • 11.11.3. SWOT Analysis
• 11.12. SIA Ammunity
  • 11.12.1. Introduction
  • 11.12.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition
• 11.13. Sig Sauer
  • 11.13.1. Introduction
  • 11.13.2. Products and services
  • 11.13.3. Recent developments
  • 11.13.4. Recent Contracts
  • 11.13.5. SWOT Analysis
• 11.14. Thales
  • 11.14.1. Introduction
  • 11.14.2. Products and Services
  • 11.14.3. Recent Developments
  • 11.14.4. SWOT Analysis

12. Results and Conclusions

13. About Market Forecast

• 13.1. General
• 13.2. Contact us
• 13.3. Disclaimer
• 13.4. License

Appendix A: Companies Mentioned

Appendix B: Abbreviations

List of figures

• Figure 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
• Figure 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
• Figure 3: Barrett Firearms M22 sniper rifle
• Figure 4: Polymer-case 0.50" ammunition
• Figure 5: 5.45mm pellet anti-drone munition
• Figure 6: Critical Raw Materials producing countries
• Figure 7: Critical Raw Materials dependence [%] and volume [mt] by producing countries
• Figure 8: Market volumes over the forecast period per region
• Figure 9: European defence planning path
• Figure 10: The Sig Sauer M7 rifle
• Figure 11: US Army soldiers firing an M240B machine gun
• Figure 12: Market segmentation Small Calibre market
• Figure 13: Sig Sauer's 6.8mm calibre rounds
• Figure 14: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Figure 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region %
• Figure 16: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 17: North America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 18: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 19: Europe - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 20: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 21: Asia Pacific - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 22: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 23: Middle-East & Africa - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 24: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 25: Latin America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
• Figure 26: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Figure 27: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre %
• Figure 28: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 29: 5.45 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 30: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 31: 5.56 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 32: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 33: 5.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 34: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 35: 6.5 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 36: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 37: 6.8 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 38: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 39: 7.62 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 40: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 41: 8.6 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 42: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 43: 9 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 44: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 45: 11.43 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 46: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 47: 12.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 48: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 49: 12 Gauge - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
• Figure 50: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Region
• Figure 51: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Region in US$ millions
• Figure 52: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Calibre
• Figure 53: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Calibre in US$ millions

List of tables

• Table 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region in US$ millions
• Table 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre in US$ millions
• Table 3: Critical Raw Materials used in Small Calibre Military Ammunition
• Table 4: Critical Raw Materials - Annual production from low-risk countries (LRC) versus required production for Small Calibre Military Ammunition
• Table 5: Market activity
• Table 6: Country groupings in market sizing
• Table 7: Modelling per region.
• Table 8: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Market Share by Country
• Table 9: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 10: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 11: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 12: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 13: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 14: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
• Table 16: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 17: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 18: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 19: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 20: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 21: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 22: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 23: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 24: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 25: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
• Table 26: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]