煉乳或淡乳市場機會、成長動力、產業趨勢分析及 2025 - 2034 年預測

2024年，全球煉乳或淡乳市場規模達75億美元，預計2034年將以4.6%的複合年成長率成長，達到117億美元。耐儲存乳製品的日益普及，尤其是在冷藏設施匱乏的地區，推動了這一成長。消費者擴大尋求適合烹飪和烘焙的保存期限較長的牛奶替代品，以及將其作為鮮奶的替代品。需求主要來自家庭和餐飲服務業，包括麵包店、咖啡館和甜點店。

此外，隨著簡便食品和即食甜點的興起，不斷變化的食品趨勢重新激發了人們對煉乳食譜的興趣，尤其是在亞太地區和拉丁美洲。新口味、低糖選擇以及植物性或無乳糖替代品等創新正在提升煉乳產品的吸引力。改進的包裝解決方案和不斷擴展的線上零售通路正在提升產品的可及性和便利性，在鮮奶和非乳製品乳製品的競爭中，支持市場穩步擴張。隨著已開發地區和新興地區的現代和傳統飲食習慣的演變，煉乳市場仍保持強勁成長。

2024年，甜煉乳佔據了35.2%的市場佔有率，價值26億美元。由於精準的行銷策略和符合消費者偏好的產品創新，這一細分市場持續蓬勃發展。雖然原味煉乳在烹飪應用中仍然廣受歡迎，但巧克力、焦糖或香草等口味的煉乳正日益受到青睞，尤其是在追求奢華享受的年輕消費者群體中。

罐裝包裝市場在2024年佔據31.5%的市場佔有率，預計複合年成長率將達到4%，從而擴大其消費者覆蓋範圍。儘管罐裝因其耐用性和保鮮能力仍然是淡奶的主要包裝選擇，但其較重的重量和更高的生產成本意味著成長將較為平穩而非快速。同時，採用無菌技術的利樂紙盒包裝因其重量輕、可回收且無需冷藏即可保存牛奶而越來越受歡迎，吸引了具有環保意識的消費者。

2024年，歐洲煉乳或淡奶市場佔34.3%的市佔率。區域消費模式和烹飪傳統對市場動態影響巨大。歐洲市場需求穩定，這得益於淡奶在烹飪和加工食品中的廣泛使用。北美市場成熟，成長穩定，主要受烘焙和簡便食品產業的推動。相較之下，亞太地區正經歷快速擴張，這得益於城市化、飲食習慣的改變以及對使用這些乳製品的西式甜點和飲料的需求成長。

全球煉乳或淡奶產業的主要參與者包括荷蘭皇家菲仕蘭公司 (Friesland Campina NV)、愛氏晨曦食品 (Arla Foods)、達能公司 (Danone SA)、雀巢公司 (Nestle SA) 和 JM Smucker 公司（鷹牌）。為了鞏固其在煉乳或淡奶市場的地位，各公司正專注於產品創新並拓展口味種類，以滿足多樣化的消費者口味。著重開發低糖、植物性和無乳糖產品，以應對日益成長的健康和飲食問題。各公司正在投資永續包裝解決方案，例如可回收紙盒和輕量化容器，以符合環保目標並滿足消費者偏好。線上銷售管道的策略性擴張提高了冷藏設施有限地區的產品可近性。此外，與食品服務提供者和零售商的合作有助於擴大市場覆蓋範圍。

目錄

第1章：方法論與範圍

第2章：執行摘要

第3章：行業洞察

• 產業生態系統分析
  • 供應商格局
  • 利潤率
  • 每個階段的增值
  • 影響價值鏈的因素
  • 中斷
• 產業衝擊力
  • 成長動力
  • 產業陷阱與挑戰
  • 市場機會
• 成長潛力分析
• 監管格局
  • 北美洲
  • 歐洲
  • 亞太地區
  • 拉丁美洲
  • 中東和非洲
• 波特的分析
• PESTEL分析
• 價格趨勢
  • 按地區
  • 按產品
• 未來市場趨勢
• 技術和創新格局
  • 當前的技術趨勢
  • 新興技術
• 專利格局
• 貿易統計（HS編碼）（註：僅提供重點國家的貿易統計資料）
  • 主要進口國
  • 主要出口國
• 永續性和環境方面
  • 永續實踐
  • 減少廢棄物的策略
  • 生產中的能源效率
  • 環保舉措

第4章：競爭格局

• 介紹
• 公司市佔率分析
  • 按地區
    • 北美洲
    • 歐洲
    • 亞太地區
    • 拉丁美洲
    • MEA
• 公司矩陣分析
• 主要市場參與者的競爭分析
• 競爭定位矩陣
• 關鍵進展
  • 併購
  • 夥伴關係與合作
  • 新產品發布
  • 擴張計劃

第5章：市場估計與預測：依產品類型，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趨勢
• 甜煉乳
• 無糖煉乳（淡奶）
• 調味煉乳
• 低脂和無脂版本
• 有機煉乳和淡奶
• 其他

第6章：市場估計與預測：依包裝類型，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趨勢
• 罐頭
• 利樂包裝
• 瓶子
• 管
• 袋裝
• 其他

第7章：市場估計與預測：按配銷通路，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趨勢
• 超市和大賣場
• 便利商店
• 網路零售
• 專賣店
• 餐飲業
• 其他

第8章：市場估計與預測：按應用，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趨勢
• 烘焙和糖果
• 飲料
  • 咖啡和茶
  • 冰沙和奶昔
  • 其他飲料
• 甜點和冰淇淋
• 嬰兒食品
• 醬汁和湯
• 直接消費
• 其他

第9章：市場估計與預測：依最終用途，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趨勢
• 家庭/零售消費者
• 食品服務業
• 食品加工業
• 其他

第10章：市場估計與預測：按地區，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趨勢
• 北美洲
  • 美國
  • 加拿大
• 歐洲
  • 德國
  • 英國
  • 法國
  • 西班牙
  • 義大利
  • 荷蘭
  • 歐洲其他地區
• 亞太地區
  • 中國
  • 印度
  • 日本
  • 澳洲
  • 韓國
  • 亞太其他地區
• 拉丁美洲
  • 巴西
  • 墨西哥
  • 阿根廷
  • 拉丁美洲其他地區
• 中東和非洲
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯
  • 南非
  • 阿拉伯聯合大公國
  • 中東和非洲其他地區

第 11 章：公司簡介

• Nestle SA
• The JM Smucker Company (Eagle Brand)
• Arla Foods amba
• FrieslandCampina NV
• Goya Foods, Inc.
• Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.
• Borden Dairy Company
• Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
• Danone SA
• Amul (Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.)
• California Dairies, Inc.
• Almarai Company
• Saputo Inc.
• Alaska Milk Corporation (Royal FrieslandCampina)

The Global Condensed Or Evaporated Milk Market was valued at USD 7.5 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% to reach USD 11.7 billion by 2034. The rising popularity of shelf-stable dairy products, especially in regions with limited refrigeration access, is driving this growth. Consumers increasingly seek long-lasting milk alternatives suitable for cooking and baking, and as substitutes for fresh milk. Demand stems largely from household use and the food service sector, including bakeries, cafes, and dessert outlets.

Additionally, shifting food trends have sparked renewed interest in recipes incorporating condensed milk, especially across Asia-Pacific and Latin America, fueled by the growth of convenience foods and ready-to-eat desserts. Innovations such as new flavors, low-sugar options, and plant-based or lactose-free alternatives are broadening the product's appeal. Enhanced packaging solutions and expanded online retail availability are improving access and convenience, supporting steady market expansion amid competition from fresh and non-dairy milk products. The market remains robust as modern and traditional diets evolve in both developed and emerging regions.

In 2024, sweetened condensed milk accounted for a 35.2% share, valued at USD 2.6 billion. This segment continues to thrive due to focused marketing efforts and product innovation that align with consumer preferences. While unflavored condensed milk retains significant popularity for cooking applications, flavored variants-such as those with chocolate, caramel, or vanilla-are gaining traction, especially among younger consumers seeking indulgent treats.

The canned packaging segment held a 31.5% share in 2024 and is projected to grow at a 4% CAGR, expanding its consumer reach. Although cans remain the dominant packaging choice for evaporated milk due to their durability and ability to maintain product freshness, their heavier weight and higher production costs mean growth is steady rather than rapid. Meanwhile, Tetra Pak cartons using aseptic technology are becoming more popular because they are lightweight, recyclable, and preserve milk without refrigeration, appealing to environmentally conscious consumers.

Europe Condensed or Evaporated Milk Market held a 34.3% share in 2024. Regional consumption patterns and culinary traditions heavily influence market dynamics. The European market maintains steady demand driven by the widespread use of evaporated milk in cooking and processed foods. North America represents a mature market with steady growth, largely fueled by the baking and convenience food sectors. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid expansion, propelled by urbanization, changing eating habits, and increased demand for Western-style desserts and beverages that use these dairy products.

Key players in the Global Condensed or Evaporated Milk Industry include Friesland Campina N.V., Arla Foods, Danone S.A., Nestle S.A., and The J.M. Smucker Company (Eagle Brand). To strengthen their position in the condensed or evaporated milk market, companies are focusing on product innovation and expanding flavor varieties to meet diverse consumer tastes. Emphasis on developing low-sugar, plant-based, and lactose-free options addresses growing health and dietary concerns. Firms are investing in sustainable packaging solutions, such as recyclable cartons and lightweight containers, to align with environmental goals and consumer preferences. Strategic expansion of online sales channels improves product accessibility in regions with limited refrigeration. Additionally, partnerships with food service providers and retailers help broaden market reach.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology & Scope

• 1.1 Market scope and definition
• 1.2 Research design
  • 1.2.1 Research approach
  • 1.2.2 Data collection methods
• 1.3 Data mining sources
  • 1.3.1 Global
  • 1.3.2 Regional/Country
• 1.4 Base estimates and calculations
  • 1.4.1 Base year calculation
  • 1.4.2 Key trends for market estimation
• 1.5 Primary research and validation
  • 1.5.1 Primary sources
• 1.6 Forecast model
• 1.7 Research assumptions and limitations

Chapter 2 Executive Summary

• 2.1 Industry 360⁰ synopsis
• 2.2 Key market trends
  • 2.2.1 Regional
  • 2.2.2 Product
  • 2.2.3 End use
• 2.3 TAM Analysis, 2025-2034
• 2.4 CXO perspectives: Strategic imperatives
  • 2.4.1 Executive decision points
  • 2.4.2 Critical success factors
• 2.5 Future outlook and strategic recommendations

Chapter 3 Industry Insights

• 3.1 Industry ecosystem analysis
  • 3.1.1 Supplier landscape
  • 3.1.2 Profit margin
  • 3.1.3 Value addition at each stage
  • 3.1.4 Factor affecting the value chain
  • 3.1.5 Disruptions
• 3.2 Industry impact forces
  • 3.2.1 Growth drivers
  • 3.2.2 Industry pitfalls and challenges
  • 3.2.3 Market opportunities
• 3.3 Growth potential analysis
• 3.4 Regulatory landscape
  • 3.4.1 North America
  • 3.4.2 Europe
  • 3.4.3 Asia Pacific
  • 3.4.4 Latin America
  • 3.4.5 Middle East & Africa
• 3.5 Porter's analysis
• 3.6 PESTEL analysis
  • 3.6.1 Technology and innovation landscape
  • 3.6.2 Current technological trends
  • 3.6.3 Emerging technologies
• 3.7 Price trends
  • 3.7.1 By region
  • 3.7.2 By product
• 3.8 Future market trends
• 3.9 Technology and innovation landscape
  • 3.9.1 Current technological trends
  • 3.9.2 Emerging technologies
• 3.10 Patent landscape
• 3.11 Trade statistics (HS code) (Note: the trade statistics will be provided for key countries only)
  • 3.11.1 Major importing countries
  • 3.11.2 Major exporting countries
• 3.12 Sustainability and environmental aspects
  • 3.12.1 Sustainable practices
  • 3.12.2 Waste reduction strategies
  • 3.12.3 Energy efficiency in production
  • 3.12.4 Eco-friendly Initiatives

Chapter 4 Competitive Landscape, 2024

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Company market share analysis
  • 4.2.1 By region
    • 4.2.1.1 North America
    • 4.2.1.2 Europe
    • 4.2.1.3 Asia Pacific
    • 4.2.1.4 LATAM
    • 4.2.1.5 MEA
• 4.3 Company matrix analysis
• 4.4 Competitive analysis of major market players
• 4.5 Competitive positioning matrix
• 4.6 Key developments
  • 4.6.1 Mergers & acquisitions
  • 4.6.2 Partnerships & collaborations
  • 4.6.3 New product launches
  • 4.6.4 Expansion plans

Chapter 5 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Product Type, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 5.1 Key trends
• 5.2 Sweetened condensed milk
• 5.3 Unsweetened condensed milk (Evaporated milk)
• 5.4 Flavored condensed milk
• 5.5 Low-fat & fat-free variants
• 5.6 Organic condensed & evaporated milk
• 5.7 Others

Chapter 6 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Packaging Type, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 6.1 Key trends
• 6.2 Cans
• 6.3 Tetra packs
• 6.4 Bottles
• 6.5 Tubes
• 6.6 Pouches
• 6.7 Others

Chapter 7 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Distribution Channel, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 7.1 Key trends
• 7.2 Supermarkets & Hypermarkets
• 7.3 Convenience stores
• 7.4 Online retail
• 7.5 Specialty stores
• 7.6 Foodservice industry
• 7.7 Others

Chapter 8 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Application, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 8.1 Key trends
• 8.2 Bakery & confectionery
• 8.3 Beverages
  • 8.3.1 Coffee & tea
  • 8.3.2 Smoothies & milkshakes
  • 8.3.3 Other beverages
• 8.4 Desserts & ice cream
• 8.5 Infant food
• 8.6 Sauces & soups
• 8.7 Direct consumption
• 8.8 Others

Chapter 9 Market Estimates and Forecast, By End Use, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 9.1 Key trends
• 9.2 Household/retail consumers
• 9.3 Food service industry
• 9.4 Food processing industry
• 9.5 Others

Chapter 10 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Region, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 10.1 Key trends
• 10.2 North America
  • 10.2.1 U.S.
  • 10.2.2 Canada
• 10.3 Europe
  • 10.3.1 Germany
  • 10.3.2 UK
  • 10.3.3 France
  • 10.3.4 Spain
  • 10.3.5 Italy
  • 10.3.6 Netherlands
  • 10.3.7 Rest of Europe
• 10.4 Asia Pacific
  • 10.4.1 China
  • 10.4.2 India
  • 10.4.3 Japan
  • 10.4.4 Australia
  • 10.4.5 South Korea
  • 10.4.6 Rest of Asia Pacific
• 10.5 Latin America
  • 10.5.1 Brazil
  • 10.5.2 Mexico
  • 10.5.3 Argentina
  • 10.5.4 Rest of Latin America
• 10.6 Middle East and Africa
  • 10.6.1 Saudi Arabia
  • 10.6.2 South Africa
  • 10.6.3 UAE
  • 10.6.4 Rest of Middle East and Africa

Chapter 11 Company Profiles

• 11.1 Nestle S.A.
• 11.2 The J.M. Smucker Company (Eagle Brand)
• 11.3 Arla Foods amba
• 11.4 FrieslandCampina N.V.
• 11.5 Goya Foods, Inc.
• 11.6 Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.
• 11.7 Borden Dairy Company
• 11.8 Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
• 11.9 Danone S.A.
• 11.10 Amul (Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.)
• 11.11 California Dairies, Inc.
• 11.12 Almarai Company
• 11.13 Saputo Inc.
• 11.14 Alaska Milk Corporation (Royal FrieslandCampina)