川普第二屆政府第二部分：對能源和大宗商品的深入洞察

報告概述

2024 年美國大選中出現的三大共和黨預計將使美國能源政策擺脫淨零能源政策。隨著通貨膨脹控制法案（IRA）出台後低碳投資勢頭增強，選舉的影響可能會因行業、商品和技術而異。這項見解深入探討了川普第二屆政府領導下的美國能源產業可能如何發展。涵蓋 20 多種 Wood Mackenzie 技術、產業和商品。

目錄

執行摘要

電力與再生能源

• 電力需求：負載成長保持穩定
• 美國太陽能：短期管道強勁，長期專案面臨政策風險
• 離岸風電：2040年後引進的風險
• 陸域風電：IRA 可能發生的變化帶來下行風險
• 能源儲存：面臨 IRA 政策變化的影響
• 企業趨勢：投資人可能會重新評估美國風電。
• 國內天然氣需求：放鬆管制將支持需求擴張至 2030 年

新興科技

• 碳去除技術：隨著其他 IRA 激勵措施面臨壓力，45Q 仍然安全
• 低碳氫化合物：近期勢頭減弱，直至 45V 指導出現
• 核子小型模組化反應器（SMR）：政策和市場支持持續

商品

• 液化天然氣 (LNG)：許可證改革是增加美國液化天然氣新供應的良好開端
• 石油市場：經濟成長放緩促使全球石油需求和價格下降
• L48上游：維持淨零目標，但活動略有變化
• 美國煉油廠：貿易緊張局勢使傳統煉油廠受益，再生燃料失去動力
• 美國化學品：原料優勢與潛在的關稅保護提高競爭力。報復性貿易的風險增加。
• 煤炭：短期內需求會增加，但經濟繁榮不會回到過去。
• 金屬：美國關稅政策推高金屬價格的風險

貿易、碳、甲烷

• 貿易關稅：世界應為保護主義抬頭做好準備
• 碳：州級合規市場依然存在
• 甲烷法規：環保署 (EPA) 指令提出課題
• 環境、社會和治理 (ESG)：投資者將繼續要求揭露

Report Summary:

The Republican trifecta that emerged in the 2024 US election cycle is set to pivot US energy policy away from net zero. Bit with significant momentum for low-carbon investment following the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the impact of the election will vary by sector, commodity and technology. This insight provides deeper dive into how the US energy industry could evolve under a second Trump administration. It covers over 20 technologies, sectors and commodities from across Wood Mackenzie.

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Power and renewables

• Power demand: load growth will remain resilient
• US solar: the near-term pipeline is robust and longer dated projects face policy risk
• Offshore wind: deployment risk arises from 2040
• Onshore wind: potential changes to the IRA present downside risk
• Energy storage: exposed to policy changes in the IRA
• Corporate trends: investors will reassess their US wind
• Domestic gas demand: deregulation supports demand growth through 2030

Emerging technologies

• Carbon removal technologies: the 45Q remains safe as other IRA incentives are pressured
• Low-carbon hydrogen: near term momentum slows until 45V guidance emerges
• Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): policy and market support to continue

Commodities

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): permitting reform is a good first step to boosting new US LNG supplies
• Oil markets: slower economic growth drives oil global demand and prices lower
• L48 upstream: activity shifts on the margin while net zero goals remain
• US refining: trade tensions benefit traditional refiners while renewable fuels lose steam
• US chemicals: feedstock advantages and potential tariff protections boost competitiveness. Retaliatory trade risk rises.
• Coal: short-term demand uplift but no return to the halcyon days of the past
• Metals: US tariff policies risk pushing metals prices higher

Trade, carbon, and methane

• Trade tariffs: the world should brace itself for more protectionism
• Carbon: state-level compliance markets remain
• Methane regulations: the mandate from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will be challenged
• Environmental Social and Governance (ESG): investors will continue to push for disclosures

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

• US net-energy related emissions, Bt CO2e