全球大型上游企業基準（2025 年）

市場概覽

市場正從傳統的油氣營運向綜合能源解決方案轉型，各細分市場和公司的發展情況不盡相同。液化天然氣 (LNG) 和再生能源領域的投資尤其受到關注。

主要發現

• 產量與儲量：預計到 2026 年，大型上游企業的石油產量將超過 200 萬桶油當量/日 (mboed)，高於 2024 年的 180 萬桶油當量/日。儘管 2025 年各公司的業績將有所不同，但預計所有大型企業都將成長。

財務績效

• 美國大型企業的股價和利潤率最高，而 RLI 則在下降。
• 歐洲大型企業的槓桿率高，利潤率和每股盈餘 (EPS) 較低。 儘管勘探開發比率各不相同，但它們都擁有高風險但多元化程度較高的投資組合。
• 投資策略：道達爾能源和殼牌在項目廣度方面領先，擁有眾多即將啟動的項目，而美國超級石油公司則專注於數量較少但價值較高的項目。

未來展望

超級石油公司預計大宗商品價格將持續波動，並面臨液化天然氣供應過剩和油價長期低迷的風險。預計它們將透過優化投資組合來應對這些挑戰，重點關注低成本、高利潤的資產，並擴大液化天然氣產能。策略重點可能會轉向提高營運和投資組合效率，這可能會與脫碳目標產生權衡。此外，它們還將關注新興市場以及勘探和生產技術的發展。

本報告分析了全球油氣產業，重點關註七家主要公司的業績：埃克森美孚、雪佛龍、殼牌、英國石油、道達爾能源、埃尼和康菲石油，並揭示了疫情後復甦的特點：大宗商品價格波動、資本紀律以及股東優先事項的轉變。

目錄

第一章：摘要整理

• 市場概覽
• 主要發現
• 預測

第二章：研究方法

第三章：上游關鍵指標基準分析

• 油氣產量
• 油氣總產量
• 油氣儲量
• 按地區劃分的總儲量區域
• 依資源類型劃分的儲量
• 依地理位置劃分的儲量
• 依專案階段劃分的原油和凝析油儲量
• 依專案階段劃分的天然氣儲量
• 儲量指數
• 可採年限
• 儲量替代率
• 上游支出
• 油氣資產組合
• 地理分佈
• 產量HHI集中度
• 垂直整合
• 概述

第四章 財務指標基準分析

• 股票表現與估值
• 股票表現
• 本益比
• 現金流
• 上游營運收入
• 每桶營運現金流
• 利潤
• 淨利潤率
• 每股盈餘
• 投資報酬率已投入資本
• 流動性和債務
• 速動比率
• 淨負債權益比

第五章：上游營運指標基準分析

• 投資組合經濟學
• 內部報酬率 (IRR)
• 投資回收期
• 淨現值
• 上游成本和收入
• 每桶成本
• 每桶淨收益
• 上游平均價格
• 損益平衡價格
• 上游資本支出分配
• 開發週期

第六章：最終投資決策 (FID)、預測與資產層面分析

• 最終投資決策 (FID)
• 最終投資決策 (FID)
• 已核准的資本支出
• 資產分析
• 石油資產
• 天然氣和一體化液化天然氣資產

第七章：風險敞口與緩解

• GlobalData上游風險指數
• 監管與地緣政治發展
• 價格衝擊敏感度

第八章：ESG（環境、社會與治理）

• 脫碳目標
• 上游排放

The 2025 Global Upstream Benchmark of Supermajors report provides a comprehensive analysis of the oil and gas sector, focusing on the performance of seven major companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and ConocoPhillips. The report highlights a post-pandemic recovery phase, characterized by fluctuating commodity prices, capital discipline and shifting shareholder priorities. The market is witnessing a mixed transition from traditional oil and gas operations to integrated energy solutions, with a significant emphasis on LNG and renewable energy investments, with varying levels of success across segments and companies.

Market overview

The 2025 Global Upstream Benchmark of Supermajors report provides a comprehensive analysis of the oil and gas sector, focusing on the performance of seven major companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and ConocoPhillips. The report highlights a post-pandemic recovery phase, characterized by fluctuating commodity prices, capital discipline and shifting shareholder priorities. The market is witnessing a mixed transition from traditional oil and gas operations to integrated energy solutions, with a significant emphasis on LNG and renewable energy investments, with varying levels of success across segments and companies.

Key findings

• Production and Reserves: Total upstream entitlement across the supermajors to increase from 18 mboed in 2024 to over 20 by 2026, with all supermajors set for growth despite mixed 2025.

Financial Performance -

• US. supermajors combine the highest share prices, margins and declining RLI.
• European supermajors display higher leverage and lower margins and EPS, with mixed E/P ratios but a healthy diversified portfolio, despite higher risk.
• Investment Strategies: TotalEnergies and Shell lead in project breadth with numerous upcoming projects, while American supermajors focus on fewer, high-value projects.

Looking ahead

The report notes how supermajors anticipate continued volatility in commodity prices, but display exposure to an LNG glut and prolonged low oil prices. Companies are expected to navigate these challenges by optimizing their portfolios, focusing on low-cost, high-margin assets, and expanding their LNG capabilities. The strategic emphasis will likely shift towards enhancing operational & portfolio efficiency, presenting trade-offs for decarbonization targets, with a keen eye on emerging markets and E&P technological developments.

Key Highlights

Production and Reserves -

• Total upstream entitlement across the supermajors to increase from 18 mboed in 2024 to over 20 by 2026, with all supermajors set for growth despite mixed 2025.

Financial Performance -

• US. supermajors combine the highest share prices, margins and declining RLI.
• European supermajors display higher leverage and lower margins and EPS, with mixed E/P ratios but a healthy diversified portfolio, despite higher risk.
• Investment Strategies:
• TotalEnergies and Shell lead in project breadth with numerous upcoming projects, while American supermajors focus on fewer, high-value projects.

Scope

• Upstream operational, financial, ESG and risk benchmar of Oil & Gas Supermajors

Reasons to Buy

• Benchmark Supermajors: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni and ConocoPhillips.
• Assess Oil & Gas Supermajors' key production and reserves metrics, financial indicators, operational metrics benchmarking, ESG target performance and risk exposure.
• Identify business strategies, performance and market opportunities.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market overview
• 1.2 Key findings
• 1.3 Looking ahead

2 Methodology

3 Key Upstream Metrics Benchmarking

• 3.1 Oil & Gas Production
• Total Oil & Gas Production
• 3.2 Oil & Gas Reserves
• Total Entitled Reserves by Region
• Reserves by Resource Type
• Reserves by Terrain
• Crude Oil & Condensate Reserves by Project Stage
• Natural Gas Reserves by Project Stage
• 3.3 Reserve Indexes
• Reserves Life Index
• Reserve Replacement Ratio
• 3.4 Upstream Spending
• 3.5 Oil & Gas Portfolio
• Geographical split
• Production HHI concentration
• Vertical Integration
• 3.6 Overview

4 Financial Metrics Benchmarking

• 4.1 Stock Performance & Valuation
• Share Price Performance
• Stock Price to Net-Income
• 4.2 Cashflow
• Upstream Operating revenue
• Operating Cashflow per boe
• 4.3 Returns
• Net Profit Margin
• Earnings Per Share
• Return on Capital Employed
• 4.4 Liquidity & Debt
• Quick Ratio
• Net-Debt-to-Equity

5 Upstream Operational Metrics Benchmarking

• 5.1 Portfolio Economics
• IRR
• Payback years
• Net Present Value
• 5.2 Cost & Revenue of Upstream Operations
• Cost per barrel
• Net-back per boe
• Average Upstream prices
• Breakeven prices
• 5.3 Upstream Capex Allocation
• 5.4 Development Times

6 FIDs, projections & Asset-Level Analysis

• 6.1 Final Investment Decisions (FIDs)
• FIDs
• Capex Sanctioned
• 6.2 Asset Analysis
• 6.3 Oil Assets
• 6.4 Gas & Integrated LNG Assets

7 Risk Exposure & Mitigation

• 7.1 GlobalData Upstream Risk Index
• 7.2 Regulatory and Geopolitical Landscape
• 7.3 Sensitivity to price shocks

8 ESG

• 8.1 Decarbonization targets
• 8.2 Upstream Emissions

List of Table

List of Tables

• Table 1: Production, Reserves and Capex Overview
• Table 2: Asset Commentary

List of Figure

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Total Oil & Gas Production Entitlement (mboed)
• Figure 2: Total Remaining Entitled Reserves by Region (boed)
• Figure 3: Total Remaining Entitled Reserves by Region
• Figure 4: Total Remaining Entitled Reserves by Terrain (boed)
• Figure 5: Crude Oil and Condensate Remaining Entitled Reserves (billion bls)
• Figure 6: Natural Gas Remaining Entitled Reserves (tcf)
• Figure 7: Reserves Life Index (RLI)
• Figure 8: Reserve Replacement Ratio RRR
• Figure 9: Upstream Capex as % of Cashflow, by Company & Year
• Figure 10: Oil & Gas Production Entitlement by Country
• Figure 11: Production Concentration Index (HHI)
• Figure 12: Oil & Gas Income by Market Segment (million $)
• Figure 13: Share Price (year-end)
• Figure 14: Stock Price to Net-Income
• Figure 15: Upstream Operating Revenue (million $)
• Figure 16: Operating Cashflow per boe
• Figure 17: Net Profit Margin
• Figure 18: Earnings per Share
• Figure 19: Return on Capital Employed (ROCE%)
• Figure 20: Quick Ratio
• Figure 21: Net-Debt-to-Equity
• Figure 22: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of Upstream Projects
• Figure 23: Payback Years vs Number of New Projects
• Figure 24: Net Present Value of Upstream Projects
• Figure 25: Capex and Opex per barrel of oil equivalent
• Figure 26: Net-back per barrel of oil equivalent
• Figure 27: Average Realized Oil & Gas Price-Without Hedge ($/boe)
• Figure 28: Upstream Oil Break-even Price (avg)
• Figure 29: BP Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 30: Chevron Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 31: ConocoPhillips Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 32: Eni Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 33: Shell Upstream Capex Allocation
• Figure 34: ExxonMobil Upstream Capex Allocation (e)
• Figure 35: TotalEnergies Upstream Capex Allocation
• Figure 36: Current Upstream Project Development Times
• Figure 37: Known Upcoming Projects
• Figure 38: Known FIDs by Project stage
• Figure 39: Project Cost Sanctioned
• Figure 40: Oil Assets Benchmark
• Figure 41: Gas Assets Benchmark
• Figure 42: GlobalData Upstream Risk Index
• Figure 43: Target Year for Net-zero GHG Emissions and Zero Flaring
• Figure 44: Emissions Intensity Targets
• Figure 45: Upstream Scope 1 & 2 GHG Emissions