大洋洲的能源轉型－推動發展的部門和公司

大洋洲的再生能源有潛力引領世界能源轉型。然而，到目前為止，大洋洲一直是採用再生能源進展緩慢的地區之一。澳洲 2024-2025 年聯邦預算讓人們相信大洋洲正朝著正確的方向前進。澳洲國家利益框架（2024）等新措施對於向淨零環境過渡至關重要。儘管大洋洲過去十年可再生能源發電能力的增長表面上表明了其為實現淨零排放所做的努力，但化石燃料仍佔發電佔有率的一半以上，而大洋洲則表明對後者的過度依賴。如果大洋洲要實現其氣候目標，太陽能、風能、儲能、電動車、SAF、CCUS 和氫等技術將發揮關鍵作用。

大洋洲擁有巨大的再生能源潛力。到目前為止，大洋洲在挖掘其潛力方面進展緩慢，但各國政府現在開始採取政策和措施來吸引投資，並強調再生能源對未來的重要性。

交通運輸是大洋洲最大的排放部門之一。這些排放主要是由汽油和柴油輕型車輛造成的。儘管推出了許多鼓勵使用電動車的政策，但 GlobalData 估計，由於電動車充電站網路不均衡，純電動車僅佔 LV 總銷量的 47%。

本報告探討了大洋洲的能源轉型，總結了該地區的市場趨勢、氫技術的主要參與者、目前正在開發和公佈的氫供應能力、最新趨勢以及到 2030 年的市場成長前景。

目錄

• 概述
• 電力展望與發電
• 儲能
• 電子車
• 再生燃料

CCUS

• 氫

Oceania has the renewable potential to be a world leader in energy transition. However, to date, it has been one of the regions that have been slower to adopt renewable energy. Australia's 2024-25 federal budget gives belief that the region is trending in the right direction. New initiatives, such as Australia's National Interest Framework (2024) are vital in the transition to a net zero environment. Oceania's increase in renewable power capacity share over the past decade on the surface shows an effort to achieve net zero, however, fossil fuels still account for over half its power generation share showing that Oceania is still overly reliant on the latter. Technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, EVs, SAFs, CCUS, and hydrogen will play a crucial role in allowing Oceania to reach its climate targets.

Oceania possesses vast renewable energy potential. So far, it has been slow to tap into its potential, but its governments have now started to adopt policies and initiatives to attract investment and highlight the importance of renewable energy for the future.

In 2024, renewables contributed to 59% of Oceania's overall power capacity. The share of renewable capacity will also increase significantly to 84% by 2035. The share of renewable power generation is expected to increase from 43% in 2024 to 79% in 2035.

In 2024, Oceania's energy storage capacity, all of which is Australian, was only 2% of the global share. 45% of Australia's energy storage capacity was made up of hydro-pumped storage highlighting the dominance of hydropower in the region. However, Australia is in a good position to increase its standing within the energy storage market with its vast domestic lithium supply.

Transport is one of the largest emitting sectors in Oceania. These emissions primarily come from petrol and diesel light vehicles. Despite numerous policies implemented to incentivise the use of EVs, GlobalData forecasts that BEVs will only account for 47% of all LV sales, hampered by uneven networks of EV charging points.

SAFs are experiencing an increase in both production and consumption, while production and consumption for renewable diesel and ethanol have either peaked, plateaued or will decline within the next decade. This is due to the vast proportion of feedstock produced being exported, a lack of government incentives and the rising electrification of light vehicles. The Australian government has noted the importance of SAFs in the transition to net zero, but it has yet to set out sufficient policies and incentives that will enable this.

Oceania has the smallest volume of CCS capacity of all regions with active capacity, significantly lagging behind Europe and North America. Despite Australia possessing geological advantages in comparison to the rest of the world, a lack of policy support and banning of carbon storage in certain basins has resulted in a poor CCUS outlook.

Despite having minimal active hydrogen capacity, Oceania looks to position itself as a leader in green hydrogen, with the third largest pipeline capacity and Western Australia as its hub. A high proportion of these projects are already in the post-feasibility stage. In a high-case scenario, with sufficient government support and private investment, the region could achieve a capacity of 5.1mtpa by 2030.

Key Highlights

• All 14 nations within Oceania have set 2050 as the target year to achieve net zero, in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable power capacity share is set to reach 84% of the power capacity by 2035. Coal and Oil are slowly being decommissioned, with gas having the largest amount of upcoming capacity.
• Australia is still heavily reliant on coal as one of the world's largest exporters of it. Out of all renewable fuels, SAFs are predicted to witness the biggest growth both in supply and demand. Despite its geological advantages, Oceania's carbon capture capacity is the smallest among regions that currently have active and pipeline capacity. Oceania's hydrogen capacity is set to grow quickly in the coming years. Two projects are set to account for 40% of its upcoming hydrogen capacity, making its pipeline less secure.

Scope

• Oceania Climate targets and policies, Oceania CO2 emissions, Oceanian leaders in energy transition, renewable power capacity and generation, decommissioning of thermal power, energy storage capacity, policies and countries, electric vehicle sales growth, Oceanian upcoming renewable refineries, renewable fuels production and consumption, CCUS outlook and policies, Oceanian upcoming CC storage projects, hydrogen policies, Oceanian upcoming hydrogen policies, hydrogen capacity by stage and type.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the region and key players in hydrogen technologies.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand the region's different scenarios for 2030 based on the likeliness of the projects.
• Look at the demand in key application areas for the country.
• Facilitate the understanding on how and where the market is growing as it is rapidly scaling up to position as one of the main topics of the international and national agenda.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summar
• Power Outlook and Generation
• Energy Storage
• Electric Vehicles
• Renewable Fuels

CCUS

• Hydrogen

List of Tables

• Sector grid and Oceania leaders
• solar EPC providers
• solar equipment manufacturers
• wind EPC providers
• wind equipment manufacturers
• key policies concerning EVs
• Oceania's largest upcoming renewable refineries
• current upcoming carbon capture storage projects in Oceania
• Oceania's largest upcoming hydrogen projects.

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by top contributors (2000-2022)
• Top emitting countries in Oceania (2000-2022)
• Oceania power capacity share (2018-2035)
• Oceania total power capacity share by technology type (2024)
• Oceania total power capacity share by technology type (2035)
• Oceania power generation share (2018-2035)
• Renewable energy generation (2018-2035)
• Renewable generation share across key players in Oceania (2024-2035)
• Upcoming and decommissioning thermal capacity (2024-2035)
• Oceania emissions by thermal power (2012-2022)
• Major regional players in solar capacity based on active and announced projects
• Major regional players in wind capacity based on active and announced projects
• Australian LCOE
• Global vs Australia energy storage capacity (2018-2030)
• Australian energy storage capacity by technology (2018-2030)
• Oceanian operational and pipeline rated energy storage capacity
• Pipeline number of projects and storage capacity per country
• Australian LV vs BEV vs Hybrid sales forecast (2018-2035)
• Australian total EV charge points and number of sites with EV charge points (2018-2028)
• Renewable fuel production per type for all active years
• Oceanian renewable fuel production capacity (2030)
• Oceanian renewable fuels' production and consumption (2024-2035)
• Oceanian Ethanol production and consumption (2020-2035)
• Australia vs New Zealand ethanol production (2020-2035)
• Australia vs New Zealand ethanol consumption (2020-2035)
• Annual CC capacity by region (2030)
• Facility industries for active CCUS projects in Australia (2024)
• CCUS capacity per state (2030)
• Oceanian countries' CCUS capacity (2020-2030)
• Regional split of low-carbon hydrogen capacity by development stage
• based on active announced projects
• Oceania vs global low-carbon hydrogen capacity by development stage
• based on active announced projects
• Oceania low-carbon hydrgoen capacity by type (2020-2030)
• Regional split of hydrogen capacity (2030)
• Regional split of electrolysis capacity in 2030 based on project announcements
• Oceanian low-carbon hydrogen capacity scenarios (2020-2030).