與生質燃料再生能源煉油廠市場:趨勢與展望

Biofuels and Renewable Refineries Continue to Gain Momentum - Market Trends and Outlook

出版日期: 2023年07月31日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 | 訂單完成後即時交付

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簡介目錄圖表

隨著 ESG 不利因素的加劇，可再生燃料消耗預計將增加。例如，2022 年至 2040 年間，SAF 消費量預計將以 32% 的複合年增長率增長。因此，越來越多的原油煉油廠正在考慮使其產品多樣化，納入可再生燃料，包括通過協同加工、煉油轉化以及建立獨立的可再生能源煉油廠。然而，改用可再生燃料面臨許多挑戰和隱性成本，可能會破壞改用可再生燃料的經濟性。

當今市場上最流行的五種生物燃料是乙醇、FAME 生物柴油、可再生柴油、生物甲醇和可持續航空燃料 (SAF)。這些燃料是通過加工生物質生產的。每種生物燃料都有許多優點和缺點。但最重要的是，生物燃料在其使用壽命內的碳排放量比傳統燃料少，為不適合電氣化的行業提供了脫碳潛力。生物燃料的脫碳潛力促使需求增加和政策支持擴大，促使許多煉油廠考慮將其產品多樣化為可再生燃料。煉油廠的選擇包括協同加工、將傳統煉油廠轉變為可再生能源以及獨立的可再生能源項目。與建設新煉油廠相比，改造現有煉油廠有可能降低成本。然而，轉型也面臨著許多挑戰。煉油廠改造的經濟可行性取決於原料的鄰近性、可用性和價格等因素，以及可再生燃料對傳統設施進行改造的程度。

SAF 預計將在 2037 年超過 FAME 生物柴油，並在 2022 年至 2040 年期間以 32% 的複合年增長率增長。這種強勁的增長將受到旨在航空業脫碳的政策的推動，例如歐盟航空加油倡議。同期乙醇的增長速度將較慢，為1.8%，反映出該燃料的缺點，包括使用糧食作物以及與傳統燃料相比能量含量相對較低，這增加了燃料消耗和總體運行成本。

全球可再生能源煉油廠數量預計將從 2020 年的 42 家增加到 2030 年的 187 家。美國繼續主導生產，到 2030 年將佔可再生燃料產能的 45%。

本報告提供生質燃料與再生能源煉油廠市場相關調查，提供生質燃料的優點缺點生質燃料市場預測，生質燃料消費趨勢，可再生燃料市場形勢，參與企業與今後的預測等。

摘要整理
生質燃料相關說明會
本公司關注的5個生質燃料的介紹
生質燃料的優點和缺點
生質燃料市場主要企業
促進消費增加的生質燃料政策
生質燃料市場預測
生質燃料消費趨勢
生質燃料交易活動
生質燃料的申請趨勢
再生能源預測
生產能力預測
可再生燃料市場形勢
運作中及今後作為再生能源煉油廠最大規模
再生能源計劃，各類型
對再生能源的轉換
可再生燃料的崛起的石油、天然氣部門的策略
煉油廠轉換的優點和缺點
進行中的轉換計劃和今後的轉換計劃
轉換煉油廠的龍頭企業
獨立型計劃和轉換計劃

簡介目錄圖表

Product Code: GDUKOG121919

Abstract

Amid strengthening ESG headwinds, consumption of renewable fuels is expected to rise. For example, consumption of SAFs is expected to increase at a CAGR of 32% between 2022 and 2040. As a result, more and more crude oil refineries are considering diversifying their product offerings to include renewable fuels through coprocessing, refinery conversion, and the establishment of standalone renewable refineries. However, the switch to renewable fuels holds a number of challenges and hidden costs that could undermine the economic viability of switching to renewable fuels.

The five biofuels that are most prevalent within the current market are ethanol, FAME biodiesel, renewable diesel, biomethanol, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). These fuels are generated through the processing of biomass. Each biofuel contains a number of advantages and disadvantages. However, most key is that biofuels produce less carbon emissions over their lifetime than conventional fuels and so offer decarbonization potential to industries that are unsuitable for electrification. The decarbonization potential of biofuels has led to their increasing demand and growing policy support, leading many refiners to consider diversifying their products to renewable fuels. Options for refiners include co-processing, conversion of conventional refineries to renewable refineries, and standalone renewable refinery projects. Converting existing refineries offers potential cost savings compared to building new refinery facilities. However, there are a number of challenges that accompany conversion. The economic viability of refinery conversion will hinge on factors such as feedstock proximity, availability and price as well as the degree to which legacy equipment can be retrofitted for renewable fuels.

Key Highlights

SAFs are expected to overtake FAME Biodiesel in 2037 and will grow at a CAGR of 32% between 2022 and 2040. This strong growth will be facilitated by policies aimed at decarbonizing the aviation sector such as the Refuel EU Aviation Initiative.
Ethanol will show a more gradual increase of 1.8% over the same time frame which reflects some of this fuel's drawbacks such as its use of edible crops and comparatively lower energy content than conventional fuels, which increases fuel consumption and overall running costs.
The number of companies mentioning biofuels within their company filings has been increasing, with the number of filer companies increasing at a CAGR of 14% between 2016 and 2022.
Neste Corp recorded the highest number of mentions of biofuels within its filings since 2020, recording 134 across this time frame.
The number of global renewable refineries is expected to reach 187 in 2030, compared to 42 in 2020.
The United States will remain the dominant player in terms of production, accounting for 45% of renewable fuel production capacity in 2030.
Only 8% of upcoming projects are crude refinery conversions, reflecting the challenges of repurposing oil refining infrastructure for the production of biofuels

Scope

Assessment of conventional biofuels within the current market and their limiting factors
Key market players with respect to each biofuel
Upcoming biofuels policies
Biofuel deals and company filings data
Renewable fuel consumption and production forecasts
Geography of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects
The current renewable refinery conversion trend and its challenges
Leading companies that are converting crude oil refineries

Reasons to Buy

Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to the oil refinery conversion trend.
Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries.
Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for renewable fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery project.
Develop business strategies by identifying the most promising route to renewable fuel conversion.