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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2084048
全球20個城市的無人駕駛計程車市場:基準分析(2026-2035年)Robotaxi Benchmark in 20 Cities, Global, 2026-2035 |
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隨著全球各大城市、技術供應商、旅遊平台和汽車製造商攜手合作,加速自動駕駛交通的普及,全球無人駕駛計程車市場正步入商業化的關鍵階段。Frost & Sullivan顧問公司發布的《20個城市全球無人駕駛計程車市場-基準分析》報告,透過檢視法律規範、基礎設施投資、技術生態系統和市場狀況,評估了全球主要城市開展無人駕駛計程車商業營運的準備情況。
本研究評估了北美、歐洲、中國、日本、韓國、新加坡和中東等地的城市,旨在確定商業自動駕駛計程車最有可能實現初期規模成長的地區。報告重點指出,已將自動駕駛出行納入公共政策的城市與仍處於早期規劃階段的城市之間存在顯著差異。
這項研究表明,除了自動駕駛汽車技術的進步之外,市政戰略、財政優先事項和監管支持也日益影響著無人駕駛計程車的普及。投資於智慧運輸基礎設施、數位連接和配套立法的城市預計將在吸引自動駕駛交通投資方面獲得競爭優勢。
《20 個城市的機器人計程車基準測試》也強調了共享旅遊平台作為機器人計程車服務的主要分銷管道的作用日益增強,為快速的市場擴張和消費者接受度的提高創造了機會。
隨著人工智慧、感測器技術、高精度地圖繪製、車輛互聯和法律規範的不斷進步和日益成熟,全球無人駕駛計程車市場正從試點階段邁向商業化部署。自動駕駛出行作為解決城市交通堵塞、駕駛人短缺、可及性和營運效率等挑戰的長期方案,正日益受到關注。
市場最重要的趨勢之一是地方政府擴大參與自動駕駛出行規劃。地方政府正在建立專門的框架,以支援L4級自動駕駛車輛的測試、部署和營運。這種積極主動的做法有助於降低投資者和技術開發商的不確定性。
另一個主要趨勢是將自動駕駛計程車服務整合到現有的叫車應用程式中。自動駕駛計程車業者不再建構全新的面向消費者的平台,而是利用成熟的出行生態系統來加速用戶接受度並降低獲客成本。這種方法既能更有效率地擴展自動駕駛車輛規模,又能提升消費者的便利性。
降低硬體成本也是推動市場成長的因素之一。LiDAR、雷達、攝影機、運算平台和人工智慧處理能力的進步顯著降低了自動駕駛系統的整體成本。隨著單位經濟效益的提升,業者在主要大都會圈市場實現獲利的目標也更進一步。
此外,汽車製造商、自動駕駛技術公司、半導體供應商和旅遊服務平台之間合作的加強也對市場產生了積極影響。策略夥伴關係正在加快部署進度並降低商業化風險。
根據《20 個城市的全球機器人計程車市場—基準分析》報告,未來的成功將在很大程度上取決於區域特定因素,例如監管發展、基礎設施成熟度、公眾接受度和經濟可行性,這些因素將使主要城市獲得明顯的競爭優勢。
本研究評估了全球主要城市部署無人駕駛計程車的商業性準備情況,從監管、基礎設施、技術生態系統和市場等方面衡量了準備。
本研究僅關注L4級自動駕駛計程車服務,包括試驗計畫和商業營運。自動駕駛貨車、物流車輛、L2級和L3級駕駛輔助系統以及封閉迴路境下的自動駕駛接駁車均不在分析範圍內。
本報告涵蓋了位於美國、歐洲、中國、中東、日本、韓國、新加坡以及其他主要地區,積極推動自動駕駛出行計畫的城市。
每個城市都採用系統化的調查方法進行評估,旨在評估法規環境、基礎設施發展、技術生態系統的成熟度以及引入無人駕駛計程車的市場吸引力。
研究週期為2025年至2035年,其中2025年為基準年,2026年至2035年為預測期。收入數據以美元計價。
自動駕駛計程車市場由眾多市場參與企業組成的生態系統所構成,這些參與者通力合作,提供自動駕駛出行服務。
自動駕駛計程車業者是該生態系統中面向消費者的部分。主要業者包括 Waymo、Uber、特斯拉、Zoox、百度、WeRide、Pony.ai 和滴滴出遊。這些公司負責車輛營運和管理、服務部署、客戶體驗以及與出行平台的整合。
技術供應商正在開發自動駕駛軟體、感知系統、人工智慧模型和決策演算法。領先企業包括 Waymo 和百度,這兩家公司都擁有廣泛的自動駕駛技術組合。
配套供應商提供關鍵的硬體和軟體組件。主要公司包括英偉達 (NVIDIA)、高通 (Qualcomm)、Mobileye、比亞迪 (BYD)、合賽 (Hesai) 和 Wayve。這些公司提供處理器、感測器、地圖技術和人工智慧基礎設施。
汽車製造商在提供與自動駕駛計程車相容的車輛方面發揮著至關重要的作用。主要汽車製造商包括大眾、現代、小鵬汽車、Stellantis、通用汽車、梅賽德斯-奔馳、寶馬、豐田、Lucid、本田、Zeekr 和 Rimac。
這種基於生態系統的細分突顯了自動駕駛技術部署的協作性質。
全球無人駕駛計程車市場預計將在 2025 年至 2035 年間經歷驚人的成長。預計營收將從 2026 年的約 10 億美元成長到 2035 年的 1,450 億美元,在預測期內複合年成長率將達到 80.4%。
同時,預計車輛數量將從 2026 年的約 18,000 輛增加到 2035 年的 184 萬輛以上,這反映了商業應用的擴展和業務規模的成長。
預計硬體成本降低、法規環境有利、策略合作以及消費者對自動駕駛交通服務接受度提高將為此快速擴張提供支援。
推動全球無人駕駛計程車市場成長的強勁因素有很多。
監管改革正在為商業發展創造更有利的環境。在已經引入商業責任法和自動駕駛汽車框架的城市,先前限制商業化的法律障礙正在消除。
自動駕駛汽車硬體成本的下降顯著提高了該行業的經濟效益。新一代無人駕駛計程車系統價格更加親民,使車隊營運商離實現永續盈利更近了一步。
將自動駕駛計程車預訂功能直接整合到叫車應用程式中,可擴大市場覆蓋範圍並降低消費者准入門檻。透過利用現有的出行平台,無需單獨的客戶獲取策略,即可觸及數百萬用戶。
交通運輸業司機短缺也催生了對自動駕駛出行服務的需求。各國政府和交通管理部門越來越重視無人駕駛計程車,將其視為解決長期勞動力短缺問題的潛在方案。
對智慧城市基礎設施和數位交通生態系統的投資正在進一步推動自動駕駛汽車的普及和推廣。
儘管自動駕駛計程車市場具有很高的成長潛力,但仍面臨諸多挑戰。
工會和傳統計程車行業團體仍然是主要的政治反對力量。這些團體經常呼籲限制車輛數量和營運許可證發放。
資金籌措挑戰也是一大障礙。對自動駕駛交通基礎設施的公共投資往往與傳統的交通政策優先事項相衝突,導致長期支持存在不確定性。
不同司法管轄區法規的不一致增加了實施的複雜性。城市通常依賴中央政府的法律授權,這限制了地方的柔軟性。
公眾輿論仍然是一個至關重要的問題。涉及自動駕駛汽車的事故可能會嚴重影響公眾信任和監管決策,並有可能延緩自動駕駛技術的實施進程。
基礎設施發展狀況和網路安全問題也可能影響未來的商業化努力。
全球無人駕駛計程車市場競爭依然非常激烈,大約有 15 家主要公司在技術開發、車輛部署和出行服務等領域爭奪主導地位。
主要競爭因素包括技術能力、營運成本、擴充性、車輛性能、安全記錄以及遵守法規的準備。
主要競爭對手包括 Waymo、百度、Pony.ai、WeRide、Uber 和 Zoox,它們都在積極推行大規模無人駕駛計程車部署策略。
其他值得關注的參與企業包括 Lyft、Bolt、Avride、Motional、Wayve、Momenta 和 Lucid Motors。技術供應商、汽車製造商和旅遊平台之間的策略合作持續塑造競爭格局。
其中一個值得關注的合作是 Uber 與 Lucid Motors 之間的合作。 Uber 計劃在其自動駕駛計程車生態系統中部署約 2 萬台 Lucid Air 機器人。
隨著商業化進程加快,各城市競相成為自動駕駛交通的主要樞紐,預計競爭將進一步加劇。
The global robotaxi market is entering a critical phase of commercialization as cities, technology providers, mobility platforms, and automotive manufacturers work together to accelerate autonomous transportation deployment. Frost & Sullivan's Robotaxi Benchmark in 20 Cities evaluates the readiness of major cities worldwide for commercial robotaxi operations by examining regulatory frameworks, infrastructure investments, technology ecosystems, and market conditions.
The study assesses cities across North America, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and the Middle East to identify where commercial robotaxi deployment is likely to achieve scale first. The report highlights significant differences between cities that have embedded autonomous mobility into public policy and those that remain in early planning stages.
The research demonstrates that robotaxi adoption is increasingly influenced by municipal strategy, fiscal priorities, and regulatory support alongside advancements in autonomous vehicle technology. Cities investing in smart mobility infrastructure, digital connectivity, and supportive legislation are expected to gain a competitive advantage in attracting autonomous mobility investments.
The Robotaxi Benchmark in 20 Cities also highlights the growing role of ride-hailing platforms as the primary distribution channel for robotaxi services, creating opportunities for rapid market expansion and consumer adoption.
The global robotaxi market is evolving from pilot testing toward commercial deployment as advancements in artificial intelligence, sensor technologies, high-definition mapping, vehicle connectivity, and regulatory frameworks continue to mature. Autonomous mobility is increasingly viewed as a long-term solution for urban transportation challenges, including congestion, driver shortages, transportation accessibility, and operational efficiency.
One of the most significant market trends is the growing involvement of cities in autonomous mobility planning. Municipal governments are developing dedicated frameworks that support testing, deployment, and operation of Level 4 autonomous vehicles. This proactive approach is helping reduce uncertainty for investors and technology developers.
Another major trend is the integration of robotaxi services into existing ride-hailing applications. Instead of building entirely new consumer platforms, robotaxi operators are leveraging established mobility ecosystems to accelerate adoption and reduce customer acquisition costs. This approach enables autonomous fleets to scale more efficiently while improving consumer accessibility.
Hardware cost reductions are also driving market growth. Advances in LiDAR, radar, cameras, compute platforms, and AI processing capabilities are significantly reducing the overall cost of autonomous vehicle systems. As unit economics improve, operators can move closer to profitability in major metropolitan markets.
The market is also benefiting from increased collaboration among automotive OEMs, autonomous technology companies, semiconductor providers, and mobility service platforms. Strategic partnerships are helping accelerate deployment timelines while reducing commercialization risks.
The Robotaxi Benchmark in 20 Cities indicates that future success will depend heavily on localized factors such as regulatory readiness, infrastructure maturity, public acceptance, and economic viability, creating distinct competitive advantages for leading cities.
This study evaluates the commercial readiness of major global cities for robotaxi deployment and measures their preparedness across regulatory, infrastructure, technology ecosystem, and market dimensions.
The research focuses exclusively on Level 4 autonomous robotaxi services, including both pilot programs and commercial operations. Autonomous freight vehicles, logistics vehicles, Level 2 and Level 3 driver assistance systems, and closed-environment autonomous shuttles are excluded from the analysis.
The report covers cities located in the United States, Europe, China, the Middle East, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and other key regions actively pursuing autonomous mobility initiatives.
Each city is assessed using a structured scoring methodology designed to evaluate the regulatory environment, infrastructure readiness, technology ecosystem maturity, and market attractiveness for robotaxi deployment.
The study period spans 2025–2035, with 2025 serving as the base year and 2026–2035 representing the forecast period. Revenue figures are reported in U.S. dollars.
The robotaxi market consists of a diverse ecosystem of participants collaborating to deliver autonomous mobility services.
Robotaxi operators represent the consumer-facing segment of the ecosystem. Key participants include Waymo, Uber, Tesla, Zoox, Baidu, WeRide, Pony.ai, and DiDi. These companies manage fleet operations, service deployment, customer experience, and mobility platform integration.
Technology providers develop autonomous driving software, perception systems, AI models, and decision-making algorithms. Leading participants include Waymo and Baidu, both of which have extensive autonomous driving technology portfolios.
Supporting technology vendors provide critical hardware and software components. Major participants include NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Mobileye, BYD, Hesai, and Wayve. These companies supply processors, sensors, mapping technologies, and AI infrastructure.
Automotive manufacturers play a vital role in supplying robotaxi-ready vehicles. Major OEM participants include Volkswagen, Hyundai, XPENG, Stellantis, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota, Lucid, Honda, Zeekr, and Rimac.
This ecosystem-based segmentation highlights the collaborative nature of autonomous mobility deployment.
The global robotaxi market is forecast to achieve extraordinary growth between 2025 and 2035. Revenue is expected to rise from approximately USD 1 billion in 2026 to USD 145 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 80.4% over the forecast period.
Meanwhile, fleet size is expected to grow from approximately 18,000 vehicles in 2026 to over 1.84 million vehicles by 2035, reflecting increasing commercial adoption and operational scale.
This rapid expansion will be supported by declining hardware costs, favorable regulations, strategic partnerships, and growing consumer acceptance of autonomous transportation services.
Several powerful factors are driving growth within the global robotaxi market.
Regulatory reforms are creating a more favorable environment for commercial deployment. Cities adopting operator-liability laws and autonomous vehicle frameworks are reducing legal barriers that previously limited commercialization.
Declining autonomous vehicle hardware costs are significantly improving business economics. New-generation robotaxi systems are becoming more affordable, enabling fleet operators to move closer to sustainable profitability.
The integration of robotaxi booking directly into ride-hailing applications is expanding market reach and reducing consumer adoption friction. Existing mobility platforms provide access to millions of users without requiring separate customer acquisition strategies.
Driver shortages in transportation sectors are also creating demand for autonomous mobility services. Governments and transit authorities increasingly view robotaxis as a potential solution to long-term labor constraints.
Investments in smart city infrastructure and digital transportation ecosystems further support the deployment and scaling of autonomous vehicle operations.
Despite strong growth potential, several challenges continue to affect the robotaxi market.
Labor unions and traditional taxi organizations remain significant sources of political opposition. These groups frequently advocate for restrictions on fleet sizes and operational permits.
Funding challenges also present obstacles. Public investments in autonomous mobility infrastructure often compete with traditional transportation priorities, creating uncertainty regarding long-term support.
Regulatory fragmentation across jurisdictions creates deployment complexity. Cities frequently depend on national governments for legal authorization, limiting local flexibility.
Public perception remains another important challenge. Accidents involving autonomous vehicles can significantly influence public trust and regulatory decisions, potentially slowing deployment timelines.
Infrastructure readiness and cybersecurity concerns may also impact future commercialization efforts.
The global robotaxi market remains highly competitive, with approximately 15 major participants competing across technology development, fleet deployment, and mobility services.
Key competitive factors include technological capabilities, operating costs, scalability, fleet performance, safety records, and regulatory readiness.
Leading competitors include Waymo, Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide, Uber, and Zoox, all of which are actively pursuing large-scale robotaxi deployment strategies.
Other notable participants include Lyft, Bolt, Avride, Motional, Wayve, Momenta, and Lucid Motors. Strategic partnerships between technology providers, automotive manufacturers, and mobility platforms continue shaping the competitive landscape.
One notable partnership involves Uber and Lucid Motors, where Uber plans to deploy approximately 20,000 Lucid Air vehicles within its robotaxi ecosystem.
Competition is expected to intensify as commercialization accelerates and cities compete to become leading autonomous mobility hubs.