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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1892127
後關稅時代的大趨勢Megatrends in a Post-Tariff World |
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對不斷變化的地緣政治格局的前瞻性觀點
美國於2025年推出的史無前例的關稅引發了全球貿易衝突，導致貿易量急劇萎縮、供應鏈大範圍中斷，並引發了國際商業慣例的根本性重組。隨著美國平均關稅稅率飆升至近一個世紀以來的最高水平，世界各國政府和企業迅速做出戰略決策，以期在不斷變化的環境中佔據有利地位。中國、歐盟、印度和亞洲工業中心等主要貿易夥伴面臨一系列報復性關稅，迫使企業透過分散化和多元化的生產模式以及新的區域貿易集團來實現生產多元化，從而降低成本和風險。
《後關稅時代》探討了這些系統性衝擊引發的宏觀趨勢和策略轉變。全球供應鏈正從效率驅動型模式轉向韌性驅動設計，並日益依賴人工智慧、物聯網和區塊鏈等技術創新來提升營運效率。經營模式正在重組，需要專業的金融服務來幫助應對市場波動和價格壓力。隨著貿易碎片化加劇，一些國家（與美國形成鮮明對比）正在加速投資清潔能源和綠色關稅，在保護主義抬頭的背景下，永續性的重要性也在重新定義。社會演變的特徵是消費者民族中心主義的增強和高技能勞動力的湧現，這推動了國內採購和區域市場合作的趨勢。
本報告概述了從貿易戰和市場碎片化到協同創新生態系統興起等前瞻性情景。最終，適應後關稅時代需要將技術整合、永續性以及靈活駕馭動態全球網路的能力進行策略性融合，使企業能夠在新的結構性變革中生存並蓬勃發展。
目錄
議程
後關稅時代趨勢催生變革性成長
- 為什麼經濟成長變得越來越困難？
- 戰略要務
- 我們的大趨勢宇宙概覽
- 我們的大趨勢宇宙—關稅後趨勢
- 主要發現
生態系－關稅後趨勢
- 2025年美國關稅
在後關稅時代轉型生態系統和經營模式
- 後關稅時代新經營模式的湧現
- 用例分析
後關稅時代的生態系統和環境優先事項
- 後關稅時代的環境優先事項
- 用例分析
後關稅時代的生態系統與經濟變化
- 後關稅時代的經濟變革
- 用例分析
後關稅時代的生態系與技術發展
- 後關稅時代的技術進步
- 用例分析
後關稅時代的生態系與社會演化
- 後關稅時代的社會演變
- 用例分析
後關稅時代生態系：前瞻性展望
- 關稅情勢的未來情景
- 情境一——貿易戰再起
- 情境二——新貿易集團的形成
- 情景三——策略貿易協定
- 場景 4 – 技術模組
成長機會－趨勢吸引力分析
- 趨勢吸引力分析
成長機會分析
- 趨勢、機會、影響分析與確定性分析
- 趨勢機會革新指數
- 突破性吸引力評分
- 趨勢機會成長指數
- 成長吸引力評分
- BEETS將如何影響關稅後的發展
成長機會領域
- 成長機會1：數位主權
- 成長機會2：利用生技保障藥品安全
- 成長機會3：基於區塊鏈的貿易透明度
成長機會分析－成長的關鍵成功因素
- 成長的關鍵成功因素
- 結論
附錄
- 我們的大趨勢宇宙
下一步
- 成長機會帶來的益處和影響
- 下一步
- 圖表清單
- 免責聲明
Visionary Perspective of the Changing Geopolitical Situations
The unprecedented US tariff measures introduced in 2025 have triggered a global trade conflict, resulting in sharp contractions of trade volumes, extensive supply chain disruptions, and a profound reconfiguration of international business practices. With US average tariff rates surging to their highest levels in nearly a century, governments and businesses globally have made quick strategic decisions to utilize the changing ecosystem to its best potential. Major trading partners, such as China, the EU, India, and Asian industrial hubs, have faced retaliatory tariff cycles, compelling firms to diversify production through decentralized, diverse manufacturing models and new regional trade blocs that mitigate costs and risks.
The "Post-Tariff World" explores the megatrends and strategic shifts catalyzed by these systemic shocks. Global supply chains have shifted away from efficiency-driven models toward resiliency-focused designs, with a heightened reliance on technological advancements (such as AI, IoT, and blockchain) to enhance operational productivity. Business models have been reinvented, implying tailored financial services that help manage volatility and price pressures. As trade fragmentation deepens, few countries (as opposed to the US) accelerate investments in clean energy and green tariffs, reshaping the sustainability imperative in a world of heightened protectionism. Social evolutions are characterized by consumer ethnocentrism and intensified workforce upskilling, supporting the trend toward domestic sourcing and regionally aligned markets.
This report outlines visionary scenarios ranging from trade wars and fragmentation to the rise of collaborative innovation ecosystems. Ultimately, adapting to the post-tariff world demands a strategic blend of technology integration, sustainability leadership, and agile navigation of dynamic global networks, positioning businesses to survive and thrive amid new structural transformations.
Table of Contents
Agenda
Transformational Growth Emerging from Post-Tariff Trends
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative
- Our Megatrend Universe-Overview
- Our Megatrend Universe-Post-Tariff Trends
- Key Findings
Ecosystem-Post-Tariff Trends
- Evolution of US Tariffs in 2025
Ecosystem-Business Model Transformations in the Post-Tariff World
- Emerging Business Models in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Environmental Priorities in the Post-Tariff World
- Environmental Priorities in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Economic Shifts in the Post-Tariff World
- Economic Shifts in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Technology Advancements in the Post-Tariff World
- Technology Advancements in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Social Evolutions in the Post-Tariff World
- Social Evolution in the Post-Tariff World
- Use Case Analysis
Ecosystem-Visionary Scenarios of the Post-Tariff World
- Future Scenarios of Tariff Situation
- Scenario 1-Resurgence of Trade Wars
- Scenario 2-New Trade Blocs
- Scenario 3-Strategic Trade Agreements
- Scenario 4-Techno Blocs
Growth Generator-Trend Attractiveness Analysis
- Trend Attractiveness Analysis
Growth Opportunity Analysis
- Trend Opportunity Impact and Certainty Analysis
- Trend Opportunity Disruption Index
- Trend Disruption Attractiveness Score
- Trend Opportunity Growth Index
- Growth Attractiveness Score
- BEETS Implications for Post-Tariff Trends
Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1: Digital Sovereignty
- Growth Opportunity 2: Biotech-Powered Pharma Security
- Growth Opportunity 3: Blockchain Based Trade Transparency
Growth Opportunity Analysis-Critical Success Factors for Growth
- Critical Success Factors for Growth
- Conclusion
Appendix
- Our Megatrend Universe
Next Steps
- Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
- Next Steps
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
