電動車成長放緩對汽車產業的影響：全球（2025 年）

The Impact of Electric Vehicle Slowdown on the Automotive Industry, Global, 2025

出版日期: 2025年10月07日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 39 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格

簡介目錄

汽車製造商重新評估他們的策略，削減對電動車的投資，並轉向混合動力汽車和內燃機動力傳動系統。

本研究全面概述了全球電池式電動車（BEV）市場成長放緩的情況，重點關注2020年至2024年的趨勢。它深入分析了BEV銷售成長放緩的原因，並著重指出產量與實際車輛交付量之間差距的擴大。

本報告深入分析了市場動能的轉變，並對比了汽車製造商在2020年至2022年初期高速成長期與2022年至2024年隨後停滯期的表現。報告也檢驗了幾個重要電池生產計劃的取消或暫停，凸顯了投資意願的減弱。

本分析涵蓋了包括歐洲、北美和中國在內的主要市場的區域純電動車發展趨勢，並探討了產品發布延遲、零排放車輛（ZEV）法規修訂以及監管不確定性帶來的更廣泛影響。透過對汽車製造商的詳細案例研究，本分析揭示了目的是降低市場風險的策略轉變、擴張計劃的暫停以及藍圖的調整。

最後，本研究概述了預示復甦的新興趨勢，並利用波特五力分析框架對不斷變化的產業動態進行了前瞻性的策略解讀，得出結構化的展望。

分析範圍

本研究重點關注2024年至2031年期間，並概述了全球電池式電動車（BEV）市場成長放緩的情況。
分析了銷售成長放緩、產量與實際車輛銷售之間差距擴大等問題，並將汽車製造商過去幾年的業績與其當前狀況進行了比較。
本報告還研究了主要電池生產設施取消和關閉的連鎖反應、歐洲、北美和中國的區域電動車市場趨勢、產品發布延遲以及修訂後的零排放車輛（ZEV）法規。
透過對汽車製造商的案例研究，重點介紹了他們為應對不利的市場環境而採取的策略轉變和藍圖。
報告也探討了復甦趨勢，並運用波特五力模型來解釋不斷變化的產業動態。

三大戰略挑戰對電動車產業的影響

競爭加劇

原因：
- 電動車市場在這個價格分佈已經飽和，尤其是隨著新舊汽車製造商競相進入市場，以及需求放緩，競爭日益激烈。
- 成熟市場消費者購買信心的放緩導致庫存過剩，生產與銷售之間的差距擴大，進一步加劇了在商品化日益加劇的情況下進行差異化的必要性。
Frost的觀點：
- 預計在2025年至2027年間，中型電動車市場將面臨最大的競爭壓力，因為供應過剩、補貼削減以及消費者信心波動等因素疊加在一起。
- 2026年至2030年間，區域政策，例如修訂後的零排放車輛（ZEV）法規和基於關稅的保護主義政策（例如美國和歐盟的政策），可能會塑造區域競爭格局，並導致貿易主導的電動車市場碎片化。

變革性大趨勢

背景：
- 政府的脫碳政策、淨零排放目標和 ESG 合規性迫使汽車製造商不僅關注車輛本身，還要關注從購買綠色電池到回收報廢車輛的綜合價值鏈。
- 電氣化不再是一個獨立的趨勢；它已融入軟體定義車輛、人工智慧驅動的個人化和出行即服務（MaaS）平台的融合之中。
Frost的觀點：
- 2025年至2028年間，汽車製造商將面臨越來越大的壓力，需要使其產品戰略與國家清潔能源政策和智慧城市交通計畫保持一致，尤其是在歐盟和亞洲部分地區。
- 到2035年，將人工智慧主導的汽車等更廣泛的大趨勢納入策略規劃的汽車製造商將在製造業方面獲得長期優勢，從人工智慧主導的汽車個性化到傳統汽車製造。

地緣政治動盪

原因：
- 對中國電池原料和電動車零件日益成長的依賴加速美國、歐盟和日本的戰略轉移，影響全球汽車製造商的生產計畫和成本結構。
- 關稅上調（包括美國計劃於2025年對中國製造的電動車及零件提高關稅）和報復性措施重新定義進出口動態，並推動整車製造商走向本地化製造模式。
Frost的觀點：
- 2025年至2027年間，汽車製造商需要調整其全球籌資策略，以最大限度地降低關稅風險，並確保符合美國和歐盟推出的在地採購要求。
- 2027年至2030年間，一系列由政策主導的投資（例如美國的《通貨膨脹控制法案》（IRA）、歐盟的《關鍵原料法案》）將加速電池製造的在地化，但也可能導致全球結構的進一步碎片化。

主要競爭對手

世界
- Tesla, Inc.
- BYD Company Limited
- Volkswagen Group
- Hyundai Motor Group
- Stellantis NV
北美洲
- Rivian Automotive, Inc.
- Lucid Motors
- Chevrolet
- Cadillac
- Ford Motor Company
- GMC
- Fisker Inc.
- Ram Trucks
- Canoo Inc.
- Jeep
歐洲
- Renault Group
- Peugeot
- Opel Automobile GmbH
- MINI
- Volvo Group
- Skoda
- Dacia
- Cupra
- Citroen
- Smart Automobile
- Mercedes-Benz Group AG
- Volvo Car Corporation
中國
- GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd
- SAIC Motor Corporation Limited
- China FAW Group Corporation
- Chery Automobile Co., Ltd
- Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
- NIO Inc.
- Xpeng Inc.
- Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.
- Seres Group Co., Ltd.

This study presents a comprehensive overview of the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market slowdown, with a particular emphasis on developments between 2020 and 2024. It thoroughly examines the deceleration in BEV sales growth, highlighting the growing disparity between production volumes and actual vehicle deliveries.

The report contrasts automaker performance during the early high-growth phase from 2020 to 2022 with the subsequent stagnation observed between 2022 and 2024, offering insights into how the market momentum shifted. Additionally, it examines the cancellation and suspension of several high-profile battery production projects, underscoring the weakening investment sentiment.

The analysis covers regional BEV market trends across key markets, including Europe, North America, and China, while exploring the broader implications of postponed product launches, revisions to zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, and regulatory uncertainties. Through detailed case studies of automakers, the report identifies strategic reversals, paused expansion plans, and revised roadmaps aimed at mitigating market risks.

Finally, the study outlines emerging recovery signals and concludes with a forward-looking strategic interpretation of shifting industry dynamics, leveraging Porter's Five Forces framework for a structured outlook.

Scope of Analysis

This study provides an overview of the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market slowdown, focusing on the period from 2024 to 2031.
It analyzes the deceleration in sales growth, the widening gap between production and actual vehicle sales, and contrasts automaker performance over the past few years with current conditions.
The report further investigates the cancellation and suspension of major battery production facilities; regional EV market trends in Europe, North America, and China; and the cascading effects of delayed product launches and revisions in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates.
Through automaker case studies, the study highlights strategic reversals and revised roadmaps that automakers have adopted in response to market headwinds.
The study also discusses recovery trends and concludes with an interpretation of the evolving industry dynamics using Porter's Five Forces framework.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Vehicle Industry

Competitive Intensity

Why:
- The EV market is experiencing a saturation of models across similar price bands, particularly from emerging players and legacy automakers rushing to establish a presence, which is intensifying competition amid slowing demand.
- The slowing consumer uptake in mature markets has led to excess inventory, widening the gap between production and actual sales, and intensifying pressure to differentiate amid increasing commoditization.
Frost Perspective:
- From 2025 to 2027, the competitive pressure is expected to be most acute in the mid-size EV segment, where oversupply will coincide with subsidy reductions and wavering consumer confidence.
- Between 2026 and 2030, regional policies such as revised ZEV mandates and tariff-based protections (e.g., in the United States and European Union [EU]) will shape localized competitive battlegrounds and potentially trigger trade-driven segmentation of EV markets.

Transformative Megatrends

Why:
- Government decarbonization policies, net-zero targets, and ESG compliance are compelling OEMs to expand their focus beyond vehicles and toward integrated value chains, from green battery sourcing to end-of-life vehicle recycling.
- Electrification is no longer a standalone trend. Instead, it is embedded within the convergence of software-defined vehicles, AI-driven personalization, and mobility-as-a-service platforms.
Frost Perspective:
- From 2025 to 2028, automakers are expected to face mounting pressure to align their product strategies with national clean energy agendas and smart city mobility frameworks, particularly in the EU and parts of Asia.
- OEMs that integrate broader megatrends into their strategic planning-such as AI-led vehicles-will gain long-term advantages in manufacturing to AI-led vehicle personalization, as well as traditional vehicle manufacturing by 2035.

Geopolitical Chaos

Why:
- The growing dependence on China for battery raw materials and EV components has triggered strategic decoupling efforts in the United States, the EU, and Japan, affecting production planning and cost structures for global automakers.
- Tariff hikes (2025 U.S. tariff increase on Chinese EVs and parts) and retaliatory measures are redefining export-import dynamics and pushing OEMs toward regionalized manufacturing models.
Frost Perspective:
- Between 2025 and 2027, automakers will need to redesign their global sourcing strategies to minimize tariff exposure and ensure compliance with emerging local content requirements in the United States and EU.
- From 2027 to 2030, a wave of policy-driven investment (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act [IRA] in the United States, the Critical Raw Materials Act in the EU) will accelerate the localization of battery manufacturing, but may also further fragment global structures.

Key Competitors

Global
- Tesla, Inc.
- BYD Company Limited
- Volkswagen Group
- Hyundai Motor Group
- Stellantis N.V.
North America
- Rivian Automotive, Inc.
- Lucid Motors
- Chevrolet
- Cadillac
- Ford Motor Company
- GMC
- Fisker Inc.
- Ram Trucks
- Canoo Inc.
- Jeep
Europe
- Renault Group
- Peugeot
- Opel Automobile GmbH
- MINI
- Volvo Group
- Skoda
- Dacia
- Cupra
- Citroen
- Smart Automobile
- Mercedes-Benz Group AG
- Volvo Car Corporation
China
- GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd
- SAIC Motor Corporation Limited
- China FAW Group Corporation
- Chery Automobile Co., Ltd
- Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
- NIO Inc.
- Xpeng Inc.
- Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.
- Seres Group Co., Ltd.