川普2.0政策策略分析及其對全球汽車產業的潛在影響（2025年）

由於現有供應鏈可能中斷，迫使汽車原始設備製造商重新評估其採購和製造策略，預計中期將出現成本壓力

2025年3月26日，美國總統川普對進口客車、輕型卡車及部分汽車零件（例如引擎、變速箱、動力傳動系統總成零件和電氣零件）徵收25%的關稅。他還宣布了一套更為全面的「互惠關稅」，對來自大多數國家的幾乎所有商品徵收10%的關稅。

隨後，在對進口汽車及零件維持25%核心關稅的同時，川普總統暫時停止了部分額外的報復性關稅，並推遲了對符合《美國-墨西哥-加拿大協定》（USMCA）的汽車製造商和產品徵收關稅，主要是為了避免累積關稅負擔，並讓美國汽車製造商放心這些措施對經濟和供應鏈的影響。

預計政府政策，例如終止電動車激勵措施、暫停充電基礎設施資金以及廢除電動車強制令，將在未來五年內減緩美國電動車的成長。這將使美國電動車製造商的處境日益艱難，因為他們大部分鋰離子電池和稀土依賴從中國和其他亞洲供應商進口，這意味著成本上升。

在這種不確定性的漩渦中，人們不禁要問，高度交織和高度全球化的汽車產業將受到怎樣的影響：國內外汽車製造商、產量、零件供應商、供應鏈和消費者將會發生什麼變化？

這種通膨效應，加上電動車獎勵的取消，可能會在短期內人為地誇大內燃機汽車的優勢，但從長遠來看，將削弱其國際競爭力。整體而言，隨著汽車製造商將資本轉向關稅減免和供應鏈重組，而非研發，包括電氣化在內的變革性技術創新可能會喪失。

消費者尚未感受到汽車零件關稅上調帶來的價格上漲影響。這部分是由於競爭壓力和汽車製造商的策略決策。然而，隨著競爭壓力減弱以及企業尋求保持盈利，這種情況可能會改變。

在規劃未來藍圖圖時，汽車製造商準備重新評估其汽車零件籌資策略和生產地點，許多製造商轉向本地化生產和供應鏈，以盡量減少關稅的影響並保持長期成本競爭力。

分析範圍

• 預計2025年全球貿易和經濟成長動能將受到美國第二次川普政權下複雜的政治、貿易和政策發展的影響。
• 繼2024年實質GDP成長3.2%之後，預計2028年全球經濟將維持每年3.2%-3.3%的成長動力，新興市場經濟仍將維持其在經濟成長率的領先地位。
• 基準情境假設川普總統對所有墨西哥和加拿大進口產品徵收 25%的關稅，對中國進口產品徵收 10%的關稅，同時允許墨西哥和加拿大徵收相應的報復性關稅。
• 保守的預測是，對來自加拿大和墨西哥的進口產品徵收25%至35%的關稅，對來自中國的進口產品徵收60%或更高的關稅，對所有進口產品徵收10%至20%的統一關稅，對來自墨西哥的汽車進口產品徵收200%或更高的關稅。也假設，作為報復措施的一部分，美國主要出口產品將被徵收約50%至60%的關稅，對加拿大、墨西哥和歐盟將被徵收10%至25%的關稅。
• 在基本案例中，由於主要亞洲新興經濟體將刺激全球需求和成長，貿易戰對GDP的影響將較小。然而，在保守的情境下，曠日持久的貿易戰可能導致2028年全球GDP成長下降1.5%，全球通膨率超過6.0%，並導致美國、加拿大、哥倫比亞、墨西哥、德國和韓國等經濟體陷入持續數季的景氣衰退。

目錄

調查範圍

戰略必要事項

• 為什麼成長變得越來越困難
• 策略要務
• 策略要務

成長環境

• 關鍵要點
• 川普2.0帶來的全球宏觀經濟風險與機會，2025-2028
• 川普2.0關稅對汽車產業的影響
• 主要汽車製造商對美國銷售的進口依賴
• 關稅對製造商建議零售價的影響 - FordF-150車款分析
• 鋼鐵和鋁關稅的影響 - Toyota Camry分析
• 主要汽車製造商對美國關稅的反應

川普2.0政策概述及其宏觀經濟影響

• 美國總統就任百日行政命令
• 唐納·川普總統發布的主要行政命令清單
• 在基準關稅情境下，全球經濟成長預計將從2024年的3.2%放緩至2025年的2.8%。
• 關稅戰將導致供應鏈策略進一步多樣化和分散化
• 由於中國經濟放緩拖累亞太地區經濟成長，全球經濟將避免景氣衰退，2025年成長速度將放緩至2.8%

影響汽車產業的政策分析

• 可能影響汽車產業的總統命令
• 汽車進口具體政策
• 川普2.0政策對美國電動車市場的影響

美國關稅對墨西哥汽車業的影響

• 從墨西哥進口到美國的客車及零件
• 墨西哥對美國的輕型汽車出口
• 墨西哥製造的主要汽車零件
• 墨西哥主要變速箱和組裝廠
• 墨西哥關稅及其對汽車產業的影響 - 關鍵要點

美國關稅如何影響加拿大汽車業

• 從加拿大進口客車及零件至美國
• 加拿大汽車生產狀況
• 依賴加拿大的OEM 車型
• 加拿大製造的主要汽車零件
• 加拿大關稅及其對汽車產業的影響 - 關鍵要點

美國關稅對中國汽車產業的影響

• 從中國進口到美國的客車及零件
• 中國汽車生產情況
• 依賴中國的OEM模式
• 中國製造的主要汽車零件
• 主要OEM對中國市場影響分析
• 中國關稅及其對汽車產業的影響 - 關鍵要點

美國關稅對德國汽車業的影響

• 從德國進口客車及零件到美國
• 德國汽車生產狀況
• 依賴德國的OEM模式
• 德國製造的主要汽車零件
• 德國主要OEM影響分析
• 德國關稅及其對汽車產業的影響 - 關鍵要點

美國關稅對韓國汽車產業的影響

• 從韓國進口到美國的客車及零件
• 韓國汽車生產現狀
• 韓國製造的主要汽車零件
• 韓國依賴型OEM模式
• 韓國關稅及其對汽車產業的影響 - 要點

美國關稅對日本汽車產業的影響

• 從日本進口客車及零件至美國
• 日本製造的主要汽車零件
• 日式汽車生產狀況
• 日本依賴型OEM模式
• 日本關稅及其對汽車產業的影響 - 重點

成長機會

• 成長機會1：供應鏈再平衡
• 成長機會2：重新檢視美國市場的動力傳動系統策略
• 成長機會3：致力於創新以降低成本

附錄與後續步驟

Cost Pressures Expected in the Medium Term as Potential Disruptions to Established Supply Networks Prompt Automotive OEMs to Recalibrate Sourcing and Manufacturing Strategies

US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports of passenger vehicles, light trucks, and certain automotive parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components, among them) on March 26, 2025. He also announced a more comprehensive set of "reciprocal tariffs," starting at 10% on almost all goods from most countries.

Subsequently, although the core 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts were retained, President Trump temporarily suspended several additional retaliatory tariffs and delayed tariff implementation on United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant automakers and goods. This was done mainly to avoid cumulative tariff burdens and assuage US automakers about the economic and supply chain fallout of these measures.

Government policies, including the termination of EV incentives, the pause on charging infrastructure funding, and the rollback of EV mandates, are projected to slow the growth of EVs in the United States over the next 5 years. US EV manufacturers will find the going increasingly challenging as the reliance on imported lithium-ion batteries and rare earth elements, most of which come from China and other Asian suppliers, will mean higher costs.

As uncertainty continues to swirl, questions loom about how the highly intertwined, hyper-globalized automotive industry will be affected. What will the future hold for both domestic and foreign automakers, manufacturing output, component suppliers, supply chains, and consumers?

This inflationary effect, coupled with the dial back on EV incentives, may artificially extend ICE dominance in the short term but will weaken their global competitiveness over the long term. Overall, as automakers divert capital toward tariff mitigation and supply chain restructuring, rather than R&D, innovation in transformative technologies, including electrification, will lose out.

Consumers have yet to feel the impact of tariff increases on auto parts in terms of higher prices. This is due in part to competitive pressures and strategic decisions taken by automakers. However, this scenario is poised to change as competitive pressures diminish and companies seek to maintain profitability.

In drawing up roadmaps for the future, automakers are poised to reassess their auto parts sourcing strategies and manufacturing footprint. Many are turning to regionalized production and supply chains in a bid to minimize tariff exposure and maintain cost competitiveness in the long term.

Scope of Analysis

• In 2025, the global trade and economic growth momentum is forecast to be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States.
• Following 3.2% real GDP growth in 2024, the global economy will likely maintain 3.2% to 3.3% annual growth momentum through to 2028, with emerging markets (EMs) retaining their leaderboard positions in terms of economic growth.
• Our baseline scenario considers President Trump's 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, alongside proportional retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
• Our conservative scenario assumes between 25% and 35% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, 60%+ tariffs on Chinese imports, 10% to 20% blanket tariffs on all imports, and 200%+ tariffs on car imports from Mexico. Approximately 50% to 60% tariffs on key US exports and 10% to 25% tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and the EU are assumed as part of retaliatory moves.
• Between 2025 and 2028, within the base case, the impact on GDP will remain muted with key Asian EMs buoying global demand and economic growth. However, in the conservative scenario, adverse and protracted trade wars can potentially shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028, push global inflation beyond 6.0%, and induce a multiquarter recession in economies such as the United States, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Germany, and South Korea.

Research Scope

Content Present in Points

• Companies to Action
• Best Practices
• Frost Radar
• Growth Opportunities
• Growth Generator
• Transformation
• Ecosystem

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative
• Strategic Imperatives

Growth Environment

• Key Takeaways
• Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028
• Impact of Trump 2.0 Tariffs on the Automotive Industry
• Dependence of Key Automakers' US Sales on Imports
• Tariff Impact on Vehicle MSRP-Analysis of Ford F-150 Model
• Impact of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium-Analysis of Toyota Camry
• Reaction of Key OEMs to US Tariffs

Overview of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Macroeconomic Impact

• Executive Orders Issued by US Presidents in the First 100 Days
• List of Key Executive Orders Issued by Donald Trump
• Global Growth to Slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 Under the Baseline Tariff Scenario
• Tariff Wars to Further Diversify and Decentralize Supply Chain Strategies
• Global Growth to Slow to 2.8%, Avoiding a Recession in 2025; Weaker China to Weigh on APAC Growth

Analysis of Policies Impacting the Automotive Sector

• Executive Orders with Possible Implications for the Automotive Sector
• Policies Specific to Vehicle Imports
• Impact of Trump 2.0 Policies on the US EV Market

The Impact of US Tariffs on Mexico's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Mexico to the United States
• Light Vehicle Exports into the United States from Mexico
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Mexico
• Key Transmission and Assembly Plants in Mexico
• Tariffs on Mexico and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Canada's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Canada to the United States
• Canada's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Canada
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Canada
• Tariffs on Canada and Impact on the Automotive Sector-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on China's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from China to the United States
• China's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on China
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in China
• Key OEMs' China Impact Analysis
• Tariffs on China and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Germany's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Germany to the United States
• Germany's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Germany
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Germany
• Key OEMs' Germany Impact Analysis
• Tariffs on Germany and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on South Korea's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from South Korea to the United States
• South Korea's Automotive Production Landscape
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in South Korea
• OEM Models Dependent on South Korea
• Tariffs on South Korea and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Japan's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Japan to the United States
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Japan
• Japan's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Japan
• Tariffs on Japan and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Recalibrate the Supply Chain
• Growth Opportunity 2: Reassess the Powertrain Strategy for the United States
• Growth Opportunity 3: Focus on Innovation to Save Costs

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer