首頁 > 市場調查報告書 > 能源/環境

太陽光發電

市場調查報告書

商品編碼

1750751

全球太陽能產業（2023-2035）

Solar PV Industry, Global, 2023-2035

出版日期: 2025年05月14日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 62 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格

簡介目錄

成本競爭力將推動未來十年轉型成長

預計到2024年，太陽能光電將佔所有發電投資的45%，並在未來十年內保持這一比例。通貨膨脹推高了2023年的計劃成本，但模組和光電逆變器成本的下降導致成本在2023年開始下降，並在2024年持續下降。

隨著太陽能投資回報期越來越吸引人，住宅、商業和工業用戶也擴大投資太陽能，以降低電費。與電池儲能系統 (BESS) 結合使用時，太陽能可以為系統所有者帶來額外的商機。

收益預測反映了太陽能資產投入運作當年的年度資本支出，包括光電模組、逆變器、系統成本平衡、安裝成本、試運行成本等。（適用於大型商業/工業和電網規模計劃）。

短期、中期、長期分別指1-2年（2025-2026年）、3-4年（2027-2028年）、5-11年（2029-2035年）。

三大戰略挑戰將如何影響太陽能產業

競爭加劇

原因：太陽能產業競爭激烈。中國組件製造商已投入大量資金建設新生產設施，儘管需求旺盛，但目前產能嚴重過剩，導致價格跌至歷史低點。

弗羅斯特的觀點：對於計劃開發商來說，模組流程的減少使他們能夠降低計劃成本，使太陽能更具競爭力，而美國的稅額扣抵部分抵消了這一點，因為合格開發商必須證明他們正在使用成本更高的國內材料。

地緣政治動盪

原因：重大衝突使能源安全成為主要關切。日益激烈的經濟競爭導致關稅使用增加，尤其是在美國。關稅導致進口商品價格上漲，國產商品更具競爭力，進而扭曲了產業結構。

弗羅斯特的觀點：關稅（和獎勵）正在推動更多投資流向中國以外的市場，尤其是美國。儘管如此，中國的優勢不太可能受到削弱，因為它已經領先，並且已經大幅降低了成本。

創新經營模式

原因：隨著電網智慧化程度的提高，電網資產也變得越來越重要。過去兩年，住宅太陽能發展強勁，隨著成本持續下降，更多商業和工業企業可能會轉向太陽能。

Frost 的觀點：太陽能發電工程產生的電力是一種資產，當與 BESS 和 EV 充電器等其他 DER 結合時，可以為資產所有者創造額外的收益。

成長動力

許多國家都制定了國家能源和氣候計劃，其中設定了具體的可再生能源目標和支持計劃，例如上網電價補貼、獎勵稅額扣抵抵免、配額、義務、綠色電力的再生能源憑證和競標，這意味著太陽能光伏通常佔計劃的很大一部分。
成本下降和儲存技術的進步使得太陽能加儲存成為越來越有吸引力的提案。
太陽能技術成本曾因全球供應鏈壓力而暫時下降，但現在又開始下降，尤其是組件成本，從而拉低了計劃總成本，預計還將繼續緩慢下降。
電費上漲將促使住宅和商業與工業客戶投資自發電，而後者將有助於企業遵守環境、社會和治理(ESG) 目標。
地緣政治擔憂和近期能源商品價格波動，使能源安全成為許多國家面臨的重大問題。太陽能光電裝置可以保障電力供應，減少石化燃料消耗，進而有效規避此類問題。
追蹤器、雙面電池板和高效電池等技術進步正在提高太陽能計劃的經濟性，使其成為更具吸引力的投資選擇。

成長抑制因素

確保並聯型會導致授權核准延遲，這也是業界面臨的一大難題。許多國家現有的輸配電基礎設施需要大量投資才能確保再生能源的有效整合。強勁的需求成長導致輸配電硬體的長期延遲。在太陽能裝置中添加電池儲能系統 (BESS) 可以減少所需的額外輸配電投資。
在一些國家，授權仍然是一個挑戰，在歐洲和北美，獲得電網規模太陽能發電工程的授權需要長達四年的時間，儘管情況正在改善，但對於計劃來說仍然是一個重大的延遲。
雖然大多數國家都為太陽能提供了強力的獎勵，但有些國家正在減少獎勵，這可能會阻礙潛在的投資者。

主要發現
成長動力
成長抑制因素
價值鏈
主要行業趨勢
趨勢一：組件價格觸底，但製造商壓力依然巨大
趨勢二：川普總統當選為產業帶來不確定性，但影響有限
趨勢三：可再生能源計劃PPA佔有率持續成長，太陽能計劃佔比最大
趨勢四：太陽能+儲能，電錶兩側的完美結合
趨勢五：效率提升推動先進太陽能追蹤器的成長
趨勢六：先進的定序提案成為太陽能維護策略中越來越重要的元素
趨勢七：更多資產達到最佳運作，增加了維修和再發電的機會
趨勢八：發展農業太陽能發電，實現農作物與陽光共存
趨勢九：亞洲將成為浮體式太陽能發電（FPV）的熱點
趨勢 10：光電回收減少對原料的需求並最大程度減少掩埋
趨勢十一：新材料日益實用化
趨勢12：太陽能越來越多被引入城市環境

全球預測

預測先決條件
各地區年度產能新增預測
各地區累積設置容量預測
各地區資本支出預測
各部門年度新增產能預測
各分部累積設置容量預測
各部門資本支出預測
2035年的太陽能發電
2035年裝置容量和發電量

區域分析

資本支出預測：中國
資本支出預測：北美
各國資本支出預測：北美
資本支出預測：拉丁美洲
各國資本支出預測：北美、拉丁美洲
資本支出預測：西歐
西歐各國資本支出預測
資本支出預測：中歐和東歐
各國資本支出預測：中歐和東歐
資本支出預測：東亞
各國資本支出預測：東亞
資本支出預測：印度和南亞
各國資本支出預測：印度和南亞
資本支出預測：澳洲、紐西蘭和太平洋地區
澳洲、紐西蘭和太平洋地區國家資本支出預測
資本支出預測：東協
收益預測：東協
資本支出預測：中東和北非
各國資本支出預測：中東和北非
資本支出預測：撒哈拉以南非洲
撒哈拉以南非洲地區資本支出預測
資本支出預測：俄羅斯和獨立國協
各國資本支出預測：俄羅斯與獨立國協

成長機會領域

成長機會1：太陽能資產再利用
成長機會2：高級定序提案
成長機會3：浮體式太陽能發電

附錄與後續步驟

成長機會的益處和影響
後續步驟Next steps
附件列表
免責聲明

簡介目錄

Product Code: MH9A-27

Cost Competitiveness Driving Transformational Growth for the Next Decade

Solar PV accounted for 45% of all power generation investment in 2024, and is forecast to maintain this throughout the next decade. Inflation drove up project costs in 2023, but lower module and PV inverter costs meant costs started to decline in 2023 and continued to decline in 2024-a rarity for the power industry.

Residential, commercial, and industrial customers are increasingly investing in solar PV as a way to reduce electricity bills as the payback becomes more attractive. When combined with battery energy storage systems (BESS), solar PV can provide system owners with additional revenue opportunities.

The revenue forecast reflects annual CAPEX and is accrued to the year the solar PV asset becomes operational. The CAPEX includes PV modules, inverters, balance-of-system costs, installation, and commissioning costs (these apply to larger commercial and industrial and grid-scale projects).

Short, medium, and long terms refer to 1 to 2 years (2025?2026), 3 to 4 years (2027?2028), and 5 to 11 years (2029?2035), respectively.

Scope of Analysis

Solar PV accounted for 45% of all power generation investment in 2024, and is forecast to maintain this throughout the next decade. Inflation drove up project costs in 2023, but lower module and PV inverter costs meant costs started to decline in 2023 and continued to decline in 2024 - a rarity for the power industry.
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers are increasingly investing in solar PV as a way to reduce electricity bills, as the payback becomes more attractive. When combined with battery energy storage systems (BESS), solar PV can provide system owners with additional revenue opportunities.
The revenue forecast reflects annual capex, and is accrued to the year the solar PV asset becomes operational. The capex includes PV modules, inverters, balance-of-system costs, installation and commissioning costs (these apply to larger commercial & industrial and utility-scale projects).
Short, medium, and long terms refer to 1 to 2 years (2025-2026), 3 to 4 years (2027-2028), and 5 to 11 years (2029-2035), respectively.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Solar PV Industry

Competitive Intensity

Why: The level of competition in the solar PV industry is high. Chinese module producers have invested huge sums in new production facilities, meaning there is now major overcapacity, even with the high levels of demand. This has driven prices to record lows.

Frost Perspective: For project developers, the declining module process are enabling them to bring down projects costs, thus making solar PV more competitive. Tax credits in the United States are partially countering this, because top qualify developers need to prove they are using locally sourced materials which have a higher cost.

Geopolitical Chaos

Why: Major conflicts have made energy security a major concern. Increasing economic competition is resulting in a higher use of tariffs, principally by the United States. Tariffs act to distort industries by making imported goods more expensive and domestically produced goods more competitive.

Frost Perspective: Tariffs (and incentives) are increasing investment in markets outside of China, particularly in the United States. Despite this, China's dominance will be largely unchallenged because it is so far ahead already and has driven costs so low.

Innovative Business Models

Why: As the intelligence of the grid increases, those assets on the grid gain more importance. There has been strong growth in residential solar PV in the past two years, and more commercial & industrial businesses will install PV as the costs continue to decline.

Frost Perspective: The electricity produced from Solar PV projects is an asset. When combined with other DER such as BESS and EV Chargers it can generate additional revenues for the asset owners - or it can mitigate potential demand charges or high electricity bills.

Growth Drivers

Many countries have national energy and climate plans that set specific targets for RE, with solar PV usually accounting for a significant percentage of projects, with support programs such as FITs, incentives, tax credits, quotas, obligations, green certificates, and auctions.
Cost reductions and advancements in storage technologies make solar+ storage an increasingly attractive proposition as customers look to boost self-consumption and solar farm operators seek to maximize revenues.
After a blip because of pressures in the global supply chain, solar PV technology costs are falling again, particularly for modules, meaning that total project costs declined and are forecast to continue a slow decline.
Higher electricity costs incentivize residential and C&I customers to invest in onsite generation while helping the latter comply with corporate environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) targets.
Geopolitical concerns and the recent volatility in energy commodity prices have made energy security a major issue in many countries. Installing solar PV is a hedge against this, as it ensures a supply of electricity, reducing consumption of fossil fuels.
Technological advancements, such as trackers, bifacial panels, and higher-efficiency cells, boost the project economics of solar PV, making it a more attractive investment option.

Growth Restraints

Securing grid connections results in permitting delays, a major concern for the industry. The existing T&D infrastructure in many countries requires significant investment to ensure the effective integration of renewables. Strong demand growth has led to long delays for T&D hardware. Adding a BESS to a solar PV installation can reduce the amount of additional T&D investment that is required.
Permitting remains a challenge in several countries, taking up to 4 years to win approval for a grid-scale solar PV project in Europe and North America. The situation is improving but will remain a factor in delaying projects.
While most countries still provide strong incentives for solar, some have reduced them, deterring potential investors.

Research Scope

Scope of Analysis
End-user Segmentation
Regional Segmentation
Key Value Chain Competitors

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Solar PV Industry

Growth Opportunity Analysis

Key Findings
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Value Chain
Key Industry Trends
Trend 1: Module Prices have Bottomed Out, but Pressure on Manufacturers Remains Intense
Trend 2: President Trump's Election Brings Uncertainty to the Industry, but it Should Only Suffer Limited Disruption
Trend 3: PPA's Continue to Account for a Higher Share of Renewable Projects-Solar Dominates the Total Volume of Projects
Trend 4: Solar-plus-storage, the Perfect Match for Both Sides of the Meter
Trend 5: Efficiency Gains Drive Growth of Advanced Solar Trackers
Trend 6: Advanced Servicing Propositions are Becoming an Increasingly Crucial Component of Solar PV Maintenance Strategies
Trend 7: Revamping and Repowering Opportunities are Increasing as More Assets Reach the End of their Optimum Operational Lifetime
Trend 8: Agri PV Developments Mean Crops and Solar can Coexist
Trend 9: Asia is the Future Hotspot for Floating Solar PV FPV
Trend 10: PV Recycling Reduces the Requirement for Virgin Materials and Minimizes Landfilling
Trend 11: New Materials are being Deployed Commercially
Trend 12: Solar is being Increasingly Incorporated in Urban Environments