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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1319198
全球校車市場戰略機遇Strategic Opportunities in the Global School Bus Market |
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需求復甦和持續電氣化努力推動成長
Frost & Sullivan 的全球校車行業的研究報告深入分析了成長環境、全球趨勢以及按地區細分的校車行業的廣泛研究。
隨著疫情后市場需求的恢復，老化車輛的更新換代有助於成長，全球校車行業預計將成長4.1%。到2022年，校車總出貨量將達到 59,346 輛，其中北美（美國和加拿大合計）領先，為 40,556 輛，其次是印度（13,659 輛）和中國（5,131 輛）。
在美國，拜登政府推出了“清潔校車”（CSB）計劃，作為兩黨基礎設施法案的一部分，目的是用低排放氣體、零排放的巴士取代目前的化石燃料巴士。美國環境保護署 (EPA) 即將推出溫室氣體 (GHG) 第三階段計劃，制定更嚴格的排放標準，這項聯邦計劃的好處對於環境和學童的健康非常重要。這些因素將決定北美電動校車的成長，並在2030年實現顯著的市場滲透。在中國，電氣化高度依賴政府，因為安全是學校交通考慮的主要因素。同樣，在印度，如果政府針對該行業的激勵措施變得更加具體，電動校車的數量可能會增加。
2022年的俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭影響了天然氣價格，但天然氣動力傳動系統作為電力的替代品預計將獲得發展動力。北美已經為丙烷（也稱為液化天然氣 (LNG)）提供激勵措施，並涵蓋 CSB 計劃的低排放氣體類別。在印度，壓縮天然氣 (CNG) 校車比柴油更具成本效益，因此擴大由OEM供應。
從細分市場分類來看，2022年，中型客車將佔據整個校車行業的67.4%，引領市場，小型客車將達到26.2%，大型客車將佔據6.5%的市場。中型校車將繼續主導市場，因為它們提供更高的載客量和最佳的營運效率。小巴在都市區是首選，因為它們易於操縱且距離適中。
此外，雖然校車遠程資訊處理市場成長，但預計可以透過更安全的學校交通和車隊管理解決方案來降低營運成本。印度和中國等市場修訂現有的校車安全標準，以確保引進新技術安全系統，並有利於使用法規的校車而不是其他交通方式。
目錄
戰略問題
- 為什麼成長如此困難？
- The Strategic Imperative 8 (TM)
- 全球校車市場的戰略挑戰：三大影響
- 成長機會是成長管道引擎（TM）
調查範圍
- 分析範圍
- 產品和技術細分
成長環境
- 全球校車行業概要（2022年）
- 全球趨勢將決定校車市場的未來（2023-2030）
- 按地區分類的全球校車市場概覽（2030年）
成長機會分析
- 主要發現：全球校車市場
- 全球校車市場：按地區分類的銷量
- 全球主要成長指標
- 主要預測標準
- 成長促進因素
- 生長抑制因素
- 銷售預測
- 預測性考慮
校車市場：北美
- 區域簡介：北美
- 主要成長指標：北美
- 銷售預測：北美
- 動力傳動系統總成預測：北美
- HD動力傳動系統總成預測：北美
- MD動力傳動系統預測：北美
- LD動力傳動系統預測：北美
- 預測討論：北美
- OEM動力傳動系統技術平台：北美
- OEM簡介：Blue Bird Corporation
- OEM簡介：Thomas Built Buses
遠程資訊處理和駕駛輔助系統概述：北美
- 遠程資訊處理系統的受歡迎程度：北美
- 駕駛員輔助系統 (DAS) 好感度：北美
總擁有成本：北美
- 總擁有成本：參數和假設
- 總擁有成本：北美柴油、NG（天然氣）和 ESB 每英里營運成本比較
電動校車 (ESB) 概述：北美
- 電動校車：V2G（Vehicle 2 Grid）概述 - 北美
- 電動校車 (ESB) 規格：北美
- 北美 ESB 獎勵計劃
校車市場：中國
- 中國區域概況
- 主要成長指標：中國
- 銷售預測：中國
- 動力傳動系統總成預測：中國
- HD動力傳動系統預測：中國
- MD動力傳動系統預測：中國
- LD動力傳動系統預測：中國
- 預測討論：中國
- OEM動力傳動系統技術平台：中國
- OEM簡介：Yutong Bus
- OEM簡介：Zhongtong Bus
遠程資訊處理和駕駛輔助系統概述：中國
- 中國車聯網系統的好感度
- 駕駛輔助系統 (DAS) 的受歡迎程度：中國
校車市場：印度
- 地區概況：印度
- 主要成長指標：印度
- 銷售預測：印度
- 印度動力傳動系統預測
- HD動力傳動系統總成預測：印度 印度
- MD動力傳動系統預測：印度
- LD動力傳動系統預測：印度
- 預測討論：印度
- OEM動力傳動系統技術平台：印度
- OEM簡介：Tata Motors
- OEM簡介： Ashok Leyland
遠程資訊處理和駕駛輔助系統概述：印度
- 遠程資訊處理系統的受歡迎程度：印度
- 駕駛員輔助系統 (DAS) 的受歡迎程度：印度
成長機會宇宙
- 成長機會1：新興市場零排放學校交通的努力
- 成長機會2：擴展ESB充電生態系統並致力於V2G系統
- 成長機會3：先進的安全和遠程資訊處理解決方案，實現更安全、更有利的學校交通
下一步
- 下一步
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- 附件清單
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A Recovering Demand and Ongoing Electrification Efforts Bolster Growth
This Frost & Sullivan report on the global school bus industry provides an in-depth analysis of the growth environment, global trends, and an extensive examination of the school bus space segmented by region.
The global school bus industry is expected to grow at a 4.1% rate as market demand experiences a rebound after the pandemic, with replacement for aging fleets contributing to growth. In 2022, the total school bus shipments rose to 59,346 units, and the largest share went to North America (combining the United States and Canada), with 40,556 school buses sold in 2022, followed by India with 13,659 buses and China with 5,131 buses.
In the United States, the introduction of the 'Clean School Bus' (CSB) program as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law by the Biden administration aims to replace current fossil fuel buses with low- and zero-emission buses. The benefits of this federal program are paramount to both the environment and the health of school children, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will introduce the Green House Gases (GHG) phase 3 program with stricter emission norms. These factors will determine the growth of electric school buses in North America, with significant market penetration by 2030. In China, electrification will largely depend on the government, as safety is the main factor it considers in school transportation. Similarly, electric school buses will gain ground in India if the government incentives are structured specifically for this segment.
As an alternative to electric, the natural gas powertrain will gain momentum, although natural gas prices have been affected by the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. North America already provides incentives for propane, also known as liquefied natural gas (LNG), and it is included in the CSB program under the low-emission category. In India, compressed natural gas (CNG) school bus offerings see boosting from OEMs as CNG is cost-effective compared to diesel.
Regarding segment classification, in 2022, medium-duty buses led the market with 67.4% out of the total school bus industry, light-duty buses reached 26.2%, while heavy-duty constituted 6.5% of the market. Medium-duty school buses will continue to dominate the market as they offer higher seating capacity with optimal efficiency in operations. The light-duty segment is preferred in urban areas due to its easy maneuverability with moderate operating distance.
With electrification in the anvil, the focus on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to gain prominence as safety norms for school buses in North America are more advanced compared to other markets; and while the telematics market for school buses is poised to grow, there is an expectation for safer school transportation and reducing operation costs through fleet management solutions. The revision of existing school bus safety standards in markets like India and China will likely ensure the introduction of new technology safety systems, which further contribute to the preference for regulated school bus usage over other forms of transport.
Table of Contents
Strategic Imperatives
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative 8™
- The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global School Bus Market
- Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Study Scope
- Scope of Analysis
- Product and Technology Segmentation
Growth Environment
- Primary Highlights of the Global School Bus Industry in 2022
- Global Trends will Influence the Future of the School Bus Market (2023 to 2030)
- Snapshot of the Global School Bus Market by Region in 2030
Growth Opportunity Analysis
- Primary Findings: Global School Bus Market
- Global School Bus Unit Sales by Region
- Key Global Growth Metrics
- Main Forecast Criteria
- Growth Drivers
- Growth Restraints
- Unit Sales Forecast
- Forecast Discussion
School Bus Market: North America
- Regional Snapshot: North America
- Key Growth Metrics: North America
- Unit Sales Forecast: North America
- Powertrain Forecast: North America
- HD Powertrain Forecast: North America
- MD Powertrain Forecast: North America
- LD Powertrain Forecast: North America
- Forecast Discussion: North America
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
- OEM Profile: Blue Bird Corporation
- OEM Profile: Thomas Built Buses
Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: North America
- Telematics Systems Favorability: North America
- Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: North America
Total Cost of Ownership: North America
- Total Cost of Ownership: Parameters and Assumptions
- Total Cost of Ownership: North American Diesel, NG, and ESB Operational Cost per Mile Comparison
ESB Overview: North America
- Electric School Bus: Vehicle 2 Grid (V2G) Overview-North America
- Electric School Bus (ESB) Specifications: North America
- ESB Incentives: North America
School Bus Market: China
- Regional Snapshot: China
- Key Growth Metrics: China
- Unit Sales Forecast: China
- Powertrain Forecast: China
- HD Powertrain Forecast: China
- MD Powertrain Forecast: China
- LD Powertrain Forecast: China
- Forecast Discussion: China
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China
- OEM Profile: Yutong Bus
- OEM Profile: Zhongtong Bus
Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: China
- Telematics Systems Favorability: China
- Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: China
School Bus Market: India
- Regional Snapshot: India
- Key Growth Metrics: India
- Unit Sales Forecast: India
- Powertrain Forecast: India
- HD Powertrain Forecast: India
- MD Powertrain Forecast: India
- LD Powertrain Forecast: India
- Forecast Discussion: India
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India
- OEM Profile: Tata Motors
- OEM Profile: Ashok Leyland
Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: India
- Telematics Systems Favorability: India
- Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: India
Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1: Action Toward Zero-emission School Transportation in Developing Markets
- Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Charging Ecosystem for ESBs and Focus on V2G Systems
- Growth Opportunity 3: Advanced Safety and Telematics Solutions for Safer and Profitable School Transportation
Next Steps
- Your Next Steps
- Why Frost, Why Now?
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
