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海水電池技術（2027-2047）：市場、趨勢與展望

Seawater Battery Technology 2027-2047: Market, Trends and Outlook
出版日期: | 出版商: Future Markets, Inc. | 英文 116 Pages, 50 Tables, 39 Figures | 訂單完成後即時交付

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海水電池利用天然海水作為電解質和鈉源。可充電型海水電池於2015年首次亮相，其採用NASICON陶瓷隔開密封的非水負極室和流動的海水。 NASICON陶瓷能夠導電，同時在水中保持穩定。充電時，鈉離子從海水中被吸收；放電時，鈉離子被釋放回海水。在開放式正極中，則發生氧還原和氧生成反應。

這項技術有兩大結構優勢。作為活性物質的陰極材料可直接從海洋中免費獲取，從而省去了傳統電池中最大的成本環節。此外，由於浸入水中的電池不存在熱失控風險，因此在火災風險會影響選址、保險和授權決策的應用中，這項技術至關重要。開放式陰極也可用於海水淡化、碳礦化以及氫氣和氯酸鹽鹼的聯產，儘管這些應用目前僅分別進行過驗證，尚未同時進行。

這三項限制因素是結構性和永久性的。部署範圍僅限於沿海、近海或有海水供應的地區。氧氣電化學反應固有的電壓差將往返效率限制在 60%–80%。海水取水、過濾和防污處理會降低寄生負載和成本，且學習曲線的改​​善空間有限。 20–75 Wh/kg 的電池能量密度限制了安裝面積，但這並不意味著該技術不適用於固定式應用。

此技術的技術成熟度等級（TRL）為4-6級。大多數已發表的研究顯示其循環壽命為100-200次，但商業化閾值約為4000次循環，且目前尚無在實際海水環境中持續數年的現場數據。比較的格局正在改變。到2025年，鋰離子電池在固定式儲能組件層面的成本將達到70美元/千瓦時，鈉離子電池的效率運作85-92%，並且將簽署數吉瓦時的供應合約。鐵空氣電池的目標是安裝成本低於20美元/kWh時，續航時間為100小時。商業化面臨兩大產業挑戰。大型NASICON電池必須以可接受的良率和成本進行製造，但電池產業目前沒有現成的設備推廣途徑。此外，還需要證明其在實際海水環境中的耐久性能夠持續數年，而這無法在實驗室中加速實現。這兩點並非科學上的障礙，而是需要持續的技術投入。

因此，目標市場較為有限。用於導航設備的電池已商業化。其次是島嶼和沿海地區的微電網，這些地區以柴油發電為主，淡水資源具有區域重要性。與海水淡化設施、沿海資料中心和離岸風力發電設施相連的發電廠，在獲得認證和耐久性驗證後將進入市場。供應商主要集中在韓國，包括專業的電池開發商、認證的陶瓷供應商和商業通路合作夥伴。

本報告中使用的參數/定義

  • 海水電池（SWB）
    • 一種可充電電化學電池，以天然海水為陰極電解和鈉儲罐，與密封負極室中的鈉選擇性固體電解質分離。
  • 排除在外的項目
    • 海水活化一次電池（Mg-AgCl、Al-AgCl）；使用人工鹽水的鹽水電解液電池（包括先前的 Aquion 化學系統）；鈉離子電池（不是本報告的主題，而是作為基準和相關技術進行處理）。
  • 基準年
    • 2026
  • 預測期
    • 2027–2047 年（報告將於 2027 年、2030 年、2035 年、2040 年及 2047 年提交）
  • 貨幣
    • 除非另有規定，否則固定價格均以 2026 年美元為基準。
  • 如何表示容量
    • 年度裝置容量（流量）以吉瓦時 (GWh) 為單位單獨報告，累積裝置容量（存量）以吉瓦時 (GWh) 為單位單獨報告。
  • 市場價值基礎
    • 系統級收入（指銷售給資產所有者時的收入，不包括EPC和併網成本）
  • 技術成熟度等級
    • 歐盟和NASA的9級等級

「2027-2047年海水電池技術：市場、趨勢與展望」報告對可充電鈉海水電池的商業化技術進行了評估。該報告將這項技術與海水激活的一次電池以及使用人工合成鹽水電解的鹽水電解液電池區分開來。在已發布的市場數據中，這兩類電池經常被歸為一類，並造成了該類別市場估值差異的很大一部分。報告內容如下：

  • 鋰離子電池的價格和特性將作為比較的基礎。
  • 後鋰時代對固定式儲能市場的要求與進入障礙
  • 鈉基電池系列；鈉離子作為供應鏈和競爭對手
  • 海水電池概述、特性及與鈉離子電池的比較
  • 商業化前景、環境和安全評估以及全球研發趨勢。
  • 海水電池技術
    • 半開放式細胞結構及其對劣化的影響
    • 發展歷程：備用一次電池、金屬空氣一次電池、可充電系統
    • 優點和缺點（分為結構性因素和條件依賴因素）
    • 電化學性質和動態
  • 海水電池材料
    • 陰極：反應機制、催化劑基準、合成路線、發展趨勢
    • 負極：鈉金屬、硬碳、合金和轉化材料，無負極和半液態設計
    • 電解質和隔膜：NASICON 作為鈉導體的競爭對手；燒結和薄膜製備方法
    • 系統和單元設計；格式開發；劣化機制；組件成熟度。
  • 標準、認證和安全認證
    • 針對每種預期用途的認證標準
    • 符合IEC、UL、NFPA、IMO、DNV、IALA、GB/T和歐盟電池法規的要求
    • 船舶卸貨許可證
  • 製造準備和工藝技術
    • 各組件的生產準備狀態
    • 製程評估和設備相容性
  • 技術改進與挑戰
    • 根據商業限制決定問題的優先級
  • 競爭性標竿分析
    • 對七種技術的長期儲存進行基準測試
    • 鐵空氣電池及其對充電成本敏感度的比較
  • 市場與應用
    • 應用特定藍圖和實施順序
    • 儲能系統：太陽能/風能、海上/沿海電力、孤立/偏遠電網
    • 船舶、小型設備、輔助電源、港口
    • 氫氣和化學產品的聯產
    • 適用於資料中心和人工智慧負載的應用。
    • 環境影響、海洋排放、生命週期評估
  • 全球海水電池市場
    • 按細分市場分類的服務市場
    • 根據三種情景，分析到 2047 年的採用情況、市場規模和價格趨勢。
    • 生態系結構
    • 按時期分類的成本結構和均衡的倉儲成本
    • 專利趨勢與智慧財產權集中度
    • 敏感度分析和風險清單
  • 公司簡介
    • 特色公司的類別分類
    • 相關技術領域的開發公司、材料供應商和公司簡介，包括 AquaBattery、4TOONE Corporation、PolyPlus Battery Company 和深圳海洋能源。

目錄

第1章摘要整理

第2章：海水電池技術

  • 概述
  • 海水電池的優點和缺點
  • 電化學性質

第3章：海水電池材料

  • 正極，海水側
  • 負極，密封側（通常為陽極）
  • 電解質和隔膜
  • 系統和單元設計

第4章 標準、認證與安全資質

第5章 製造準備與製程技術

第6章：技術改進與挑戰

第7章：競爭標竿分析

  • 鐵和空氣的問題

第8章 市場與應用

  • 應用領域和排序
  • 能源儲存系統（ESS）
  • 船舶和基礎設施
  • 氫氣生產
  • 資料中心和人工智慧負載功率應用
  • 環境足跡、海洋排放、生命週期評估

第9章：全球海水電池市場

  • 可以提供服務的市場
  • 發展及市場價值情景
  • 市場價值
  • 按應用領域分類的市場展望
  • 生態系結構
  • 儲存成本結構與均衡成本
  • 專利狀況和智慧財產權集中度
  • 情境敏感度分析與風險登記

第10章：公司簡介（14家公司簡介）

第11章附錄

第12章參考文獻

Seawater batteries use natural seawater as the electrolyte and sodium source. The rechargeable version, first demonstrated in 2015, separates a sealed non-aqueous negative electrode compartment from flowing seawater using a NASICON ceramic that conducts sodium ions while remaining stable in water. Sodium is drawn from the seawater on charge and returned on discharge, with oxygen reduction and evolution occurring at an open positive electrode.

The technology has two structural advantages. The active cathode material is supplied by the ocean at zero cost, removing the largest line item in a conventional cell. And a water-immersed cell has no thermal runaway pathway, which matters in applications where fire risk drives siting, insurance and permitting decisions. The open cathode also permits desalination, carbon mineralisation and hydrogen or chlor-alkali co-production, though these have been demonstrated separately rather than simultaneously.

Three constraints are structural and permanent. Deployment is limited to coastal, offshore or seawater-supplied sites. Round-trip efficiency is capped at 60–80% by the voltage gap inherent to oxygen electrochemistry. Seawater intake, filtration and anti-fouling impose a parasitic load and a cost floor with limited learning-curve potential. Cell energy density of 20–75 Wh/kg constrains footprint but does not disqualify the technology from stationary duty.

The technology sits at TRL 4–6. Cycle life has been demonstrated to 100–200 cycles in most published work, against a commercial threshold near 4,000, and no multi-year field data in real seawater exists. The comparison set has moved: lithium-ion reached USD 70/kWh at pack level for stationary storage in 2025, sodium-ion operates at 85–92% efficiency with signed multi-gigawatt-hour supply agreements, and iron-air targets installed costs below USD 20/kWh for 100-hour duration. Two industrial problems gate commercialisation. Large-format NASICON must be manufactured at acceptable yield and cost, and it has no equipment path from the battery industry. Durability must be demonstrated over years in real seawater, which cannot be accelerated in a laboratory. Neither is a scientific obstacle; both require sustained engineering investment.

The addressable market is correspondingly narrow. Marine navigation aids are commercially available. Island and coastal microgrids, where the incumbent is diesel and fresh water has local value, follow. Desalination-coupled plants, coastal data centres and offshore wind installations open later, subject to certification and durability evidence. The supplier base is concentrated in Korea, with one dedicated cell developer, one qualified ceramic supplier and one commercial channel partner.

Parameter / Definition used in this report

  • Seawater battery (SWB)
    • A rechargeable electrochemical cell in which natural seawater serves as the catholyte and as the sodium reservoir, separated from a sealed negative-electrode compartment by a sodium-selective solid electrolyte
  • Excluded from scope
    • Seawater-activated reserve primary batteries (Mg-AgCl, Al-AgCl); saltwater-electrolyte batteries using manufactured brine, including the former Aquion chemistry; sodium-ion batteries, which are treated as a benchmark and adjacency rather than as the subject
  • Baseline year
    • 2026
  • Forecast window
    • 2027–2047, reported at 2027, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2047
  • Currency
    • Constant 2026 US dollars unless stated otherwise
  • Capacity convention
    • GWh of energy capacity installed per year (flow) and GWh cumulative installed base (stock), reported separately
  • Market value convention
    • System-level revenue at the point of sale to the asset owner, excluding EPC and grid connection
  • TRL scale
    • EU and NASA nine-point scale

Seawater Battery Technology 2027–2047: Market, Trends and Outlook assesses the rechargeable sodium–seawater battery as a commercial technology. It distinguishes it from seawater-activated primary batteries and from saltwater-electrolyte batteries using manufactured brine, which are frequently aggregated with it in published market data and which account for most of the discrepancy between market valuations for this category. Contents include:

  • Lithium-ion pricing and characteristics as comparison baseline
  • Post-lithium requirements and entry gates for stationary storage
  • Sodium-based battery families; sodium-ion as both supply chain and competitor
  • Seawater battery overview, properties, comparison with sodium-ion
  • Commercial prospects; environmental and safety assessment; global R&D trends
  • Seawater battery technology
    • Half-open cell architecture and implications for degradation
    • Development history: reserve primaries, metal-air primaries, rechargeable systems
    • Advantages and disadvantages, separated into structural and contingent
    • Electrochemical characteristics and thermodynamics
  • Seawater battery materials
    • Positive electrode: reaction mechanism, catalyst benchmark, synthesis routes, trends
    • Negative electrode: sodium metal, hard carbon, alloying and conversion materials, anode-free and semi-liquid designs
    • Electrolyte and separator: NASICON against competing sodium conductors; sintering and thin-film routes
    • System and cell design; format development; degradation mechanisms; component maturity
  • Standards, certification and safety qualification
    • Certification gates by target application
    • IEC, UL, NFPA, IMO, DNV, IALA, GB/T and EU Battery Regulation requirements
    • Marine discharge consent
  • Manufacturing readiness and process technology
    • Manufacturing readiness by component
    • Process assessment and equipment compatibility
  • Technical improvements and challenges
    • Challenges ranked by commercial constraint
  • Competitive benchmarking
    • Long-duration storage benchmark across seven technologies
    • Iron-air comparison and charging-price sensitivity
  • Market and applications
    • Application roadmap and sequencing
    • ESS: solar and wind, offshore and coastal, island and remote grids
    • Marine vessels, small equipment, auxiliary power, ports
    • Hydrogen and chemical co-production
    • Data-center and AI-load applications
    • Environmental footprint, marine discharge and life-cycle assessment
  • Global market for seawater batteries
    • Serviceable market by segment
    • Deployment, market value and price path to 2047 under three scenarios
    • Ecosystem structure
    • Cost structure and levelised cost of storage by duration
    • Patent landscape and IP concentration
    • Sensitivities and risk register
  • Company profiles
    • Classification of profiled companies by category
    • Profiles across developers, materials suppliers and adjacent technologies including AquaBattery, 4TOONE Corporation, PolyPlus Battery Company, Shenzhen Sea Energy and more......

Table of Contents

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1 Lithium-ion battery technology
    • 1.1.1 Pricing
    • 1.1.2 Characteristics
  • 1.2 Post-lithium technologies
    • 1.2.1 Requirements
    • 1.2.2 Sodium-based batteries
      • 1.2.2.1 Why sodium-ion matters for seawater batteries
  • 1.3 Seawater batteries
    • 1.3.1 Overview
    • 1.3.2 Properties
    • 1.3.3 Comparison with SIB
    • 1.3.4 Seawater batteries commercial prospects
    • 1.3.5 Environmental and safety case for seawater batteries
    • 1.3.6 Global R&D trends
  • 1.4 Summary of technology and market
  • 1.5 Commercialisation
  • 1.6 Supply chain implications
  • 1.7 Regulation, trade and transport constraints
  • 1.8 Scope, method and definitions

2 SEAWATER BATTERY TECHNOLOGY

  • 2.1 Overview
  • 2.2 Advantages and disadvantages of seawater batteries
  • 2.3 Electrochemical characteristics

3 SEAWATER BATTERY MATERIALS

  • 3.1 Positive electrode, seawater side
    • 3.1.1 Reaction mechanism
    • 3.1.2 Materials
    • 3.1.3 Synthesis methods
    • 3.1.4 Technology trends
  • 3.2 Negative electrode, sealed side (conventionally the anode)
    • 3.2.1 Reaction mechanism
    • 3.2.2 Materials and anode-free architectures
    • 3.2.3 Synthesis methods
    • 3.2.4 Technology trends
  • 3.3 Electrolyte and separator
    • 3.3.1 Properties
    • 3.3.2 Materials
    • 3.3.3 Synthesis methods
    • 3.3.4 Technology trends
  • 3.4 System and cell design
    • 3.4.1 Design lessons from metal-air and flow-battery architectures
    • 3.4.2 Degradation and failure modes
    • 3.4.3 Component maturity and the critical path

4 STANDARDS, CERTIFICATION AND SAFETY QUALIFICATION

5 MANUFACTURING READINESS AND PROCESS TECHNOLOGY

6 TECHNICAL IMPROVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES

7 COMPETITIVE BENCHMARKING

  • 7.1 The iron-air problem

8 MARKET AND APPLICATIONS

  • 8.1 Application areas and sequencing
  • 8.2 Energy and Storage Systems (ESS)
    • 8.2.1 Deployment status
    • 8.2.2 Solar and Wind
    • 8.2.3 Offshore and Coastal
    • 8.2.4 Island and Remote Coastal Grids
  • 8.3 Marine Vessels and Infrastructure
    • 8.3.1 Small marine equipment
    • 8.3.2 Auxiliary power
    • 8.3.3 Port and offshore power supply
  • 8.4 Hydrogen Production
    • 8.4.1 Water electrolysis and the chloride problem
    • 8.4.2 Hydrogen and chemical co-production
  • 8.5 Data-center and AI-load power applications
  • 8.6 Environmental footprint, marine discharge and life-cycle assessment

9 GLOBAL MARKET FOR SEAWATER BATTERIES

  • 9.1 Serviceable market
  • 9.2 Deployment and market value scenarios
    • 9.2.1 Scenario design
    • 9.2.2 Deployment outlook
  • 9.3 Market value
  • 9.4 Market outlook by application
  • 9.5 Ecosystem structure
  • 9.6 Cost structure and levelised cost of storage
    • 9.6.1 System cost structure and its evolution
    • 9.6.2 Levelised cost of storage
  • 9.7 Patent landscape and IP concentration
  • 9.8 Scenario sensitivities and risk register
    • 9.8.1 Sensitivity analysis
    • 9.8.2 Risk register

10 COMPANY PROFILES (14 company profiles)

11 APPENDICES

  • 11.1 Appendix A. Methodology and data sources
  • 11.2 Appendix B. Glossary and acronyms
  • 11.3 Appendix C. Readiness level definitions

12 REFERENCES

List of Tables

  • Table 1. Lithium-ion pack price trajectory.
  • Table 2. Lithium-ion pack price by segment, chemistry and region, 2025.
  • Table 3. Baseline lithium-ion characteristics used as the comparison reference throughout this report.
  • Table 4. Improvement areas for lithium-ion, ranked by relevance to stationary energy storage.
  • Table 5. Entry gates for post-lithium stationary storage.
  • Table 6. Elemental abundance underpinning the sodium-battery thesis.
  • Table 7. Sodium-ion commercialisation milestones, 2021–2026.
  • Table 8. Global sodium-ion manufacturing capacity.
  • Table 9. Comparison of sodium-based battery families.
  • Table 10. Sodium-ion against competing rechargeable chemistries.
  • Table 11. Characteristics of a rechargeable seawater battery.
  • Table 12. Comparative analysis of seawater batteries and sodium-ion batteries.
  • Table 13. ESS key performance indicators.
  • Table 14. Market-segment fit assessment.
  • Table 15. Regional sodium-ion demand
  • Table 16. Environmental and safety assessment, with evidence status flagged.
  • Table 17. Summary conclusions.
  • Table 18. Commercialisation priorities, ranked by value relative to cost.
  • Table 19. Supply chain assessment.
  • Table 20. Regulatory, trade and transport constraints.
  • Table 21. Advantages and disadvantages, separated by whether they are inherent to the architecture or contingent on engineering progress.
  • Table 22. Electrochemical characteristics of sodium–seawater batteries as reported in the peer-reviewed literature.
  • Table 23. Positive-electrode catalyst benchmark, sodium–seawater batteries.
  • Table 24. Synthesis routes for positive-electrode catalysts and collectors, with a scalability assessment.
  • Table 25. Negative-electrode materials for sodium–seawater batteries.
  • Table 26. Sodium solid electrolyte candidates.
  • Table 27. Cell format development for sodium–seawater batteries.
  • Table 28. Standards and certification landscape for sodium–seawater batteries.
  • Table 29. Manufacturing process assessment by step.
  • Table 30. Technical challenges ranked by commercial constraint rather than scientific interest.
  • Table 31. Long-duration storage competitive benchmark.
  • Table 32. Why island grids are accessible and mainland utility grids are not.
  • Table 33. Co-product treatment and probability weighting.
  • Table 34. Data-center backup requirements against the sodium–seawater battery position.
  • Table 35. Environmental risk register for sodium–seawater battery deployment.
  • Table 36. Serviceable market by segment.
  • Table 37. Scenario assumptions.
  • Table 38. Annual deployment by scenario.
  • Table 39. Market value by scenario.
  • Table 40. Base-case segment progression.
  • Table 41. Installed system cost structure by component, USD per kWh, base case.
  • Table 42. Modelled levelised cost of storage, USD per MWh discharged, at a charging price of USD 25/MWh.
  • Table 43. Implications of the IP concentration.
  • Table 44. Sensitivity of 2047 market value to individual assumptions, base case as reference.
  • Table 45. Risk register for the sodium–seawater battery market outlook.
  • Table 46. Classification of profiled companies.
  • Table 47. Model construction.
  • Table 48. Glossary.
  • Table 49. Readiness level definitions used in this report.
  • Table 50. Readiness assessment by component and system, as assessed in this report.

List of Figures

  • Figure 1. Lithium-ion pack price decline, 2010–2025, with 2024–2025 segment divergence
  • Figure 2. Crustal and seawater abundance of battery-relevant elements
  • Figure 3. Sodium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by producer: in place, planned 2025 and planned 2030
  • Figure 4. Global sodium-ion battery market value, conservative and optimistic scenarios/
  • Figure 5. Taxonomy of sodium-based battery technologies
  • Figure 6. Technology positioning: energy density against indicative cell cost
  • Figure 7. Cell architecture: sodium-ion battery compared with seawater battery
  • Figure 8. Stacked value proposition of a seawater battery installation
  • Figure 9. Cell cost stack: LFP, sodium-ion and seawater battery compared
  • Figure 10. Fit of seawater batteries across candidate market segments
  • Figure 11. Sodium–seawater battery commercialisation roadmap, 2026–2047
  • Figure 12. Concentration of seawater battery research against sodium-ion manufacturing capacity
  • Figure 13. Commercialisation stage gates, 2027–2047
  • Figure 14. Supply chain concentration against criticality
  • Figure 15. Development of the sodium–seawater battery, 1997–2026
  • Figure 16. Charge and discharge voltage profile, showing the oxygen-redox voltage gap
  • Figure 17. Charge–discharge voltage gap by positive-electrode catalyst
  • Figure 18. Specific capacity of candidate negative-electrode materials
  • Figure 19. Room-temperature sodium-ion conductivity of candidate solid electrolytes
  • Figure 20. Energy density by cell format, against the theoretical seawater limit
  • Figure 21. Degradation mechanisms by location within the system
  • Figure 22. Component readiness against share of system cost
  • Figure 23. Certification gates by target application
  • Figure 24. Manufacturing readiness by component
  • Figure 25. Competitive positioning of long-duration storage technologies
  • Figure 26. Application roadmap and sequencing, 2027–2047
  • Figure 27. Global energy storage additions and the serviceable market for seawater batteries
  • Figure 28. Island microgrid economics
  • Figure 29. Integrated pathway from renewable generation to hydrogen and chemical co-products
  • Figure 30. Environmental risk register by likelihood, severity and evidence status
  • Figure 31. Serviceable market build-up by application segment, 2027–2047
  • Figure 32. Sodium–seawater battery deployment scenarios, 2027–2047
  • Figure 33. Market value by scenario, 2027–2047
  • Figure 34. Sodium–seawater battery ecosystem and adjacent categories
  • Figure 35. Installed system cost structure, 2027–2047, base case
  • Figure 36. Levelised cost of storage against duration
  • Figure 37. Sensitivity of 100-hour levelised cost to the charging energy price
  • Figure 38. Concentration of principal published results by institutional grouping
  • Figure 39. Sensitivity of 2047 market value to individual assumptions