電動飛機和 eVTOL 的未來願景

預計 2021 年至 2050 年間，全球電動飛機和 eVTOL（商用和私人）市場將達到 2720 億歐元至 7250 億歐元。

在本報告中，我們分析了全球電動飛機和 eVTOL（電動垂直起降）市場，概述了技術、預期用途、未來技術發展、基礎設施/監管發展和市場發展潛力。 20 家主要製造商、許可流程和對安全問題的回應、未來市場預測和情景分析（至 2050 年）。

內容

第一章介紹

• 航空市場
• 電動飛機的概念
• 飛機電氣化和 eVTOL 的驅動因素
  • 降低成本
  • 當地旅遊市場
  • 減排
  • 降噪
  • 改善可訪問性
  • 經濟發展

第 2 章電動飛機和 eVTOL

• 電動飛機
  • 改造
  • 傳統設計
  • 全新設計
  • 尺寸和範圍
  • 電池型和氫氣型
• eVTOL（電動垂直起降飛機）
  • 無翼多旋翼飛行器
  • 固定翼
  • 傾斜的機翼和/或螺旋槳
• eVTOL 的風險評估
  • 身份驗證
  • 基礎設施
  • 技術
  • 運營
  • 公眾意識

第 3 章技術概述

• 電池
• 氫氣
• 飛機
• 通信技術和自主飛行
  • 導航/通訊系統
  • 物聯網連接
  • 自主飛行之路

第 4 章生態系統和監管框架

• 生態系統
  • 充電
  • 電池電源:挑戰
  • 氫能:挑戰
  • 起飛和降落基礎設施
  • 機場基礎設施
  • MRO（維護、修理、大修）
• 監管框架
  • 認證和標準化
  • 安全
  • 空域管理
  • 可持續性

第 5 章區域空中交通和城市空中交通

• 區域空中交通:可行的市場開發和使用案例
  • 市場將如何演變:各種情景
  • 用戶體驗
• 城市空中交通:可行的市場開發和使用案例
  • 市場將如何演變:各種情景
  • 用戶體驗
• 對區域和城市規劃的影響
  • 教育
  • 授權
  • 短期城市規劃
  • 長期城市規劃
  • 區域規劃
  • 交通規劃與整合

第 6 章公司概況和戰略

• 飛機
  • Bye Aerospace
  • Eviation
  • Heart Aerospace
  • MagniX
  • Pipistrel
  • Universal Hydrogen
  • Wright Electric
  • ZeroAvia
• eVTOL
  • Archer
  • Beta Technologies
  • CityAirbus NextGen
  • EHang
  • Eve Air Mobility
  • Joby Aviation
  • Lilium
  • Supernal
  • Volocopter
  • XPeng (AeroHT)
  • Vertical Aerospace
  • Wisk

第 7 章市場預測和情景

• 市場細分
• 市場規模
  • 商用電動垂直起降
  • 私人 eVTOL
  • 電動飛機
  • 當前的電動 eVTOL 和飛機訂單積壓
  • 物聯網連接
• 市場價格
• 商業模式和用例
• 結論
• 首字母縮略詞列表

How will the market for electric aircraft and eVTOLs evolve in the next 30 years? The total market value of electric aircraft and eVTOLs (commercial and private use) during the time period 2021-2050 is forecasted to reach in the range of € 272-725 billion. Get up to date with the latest information about vendors, technology developments, regulations and markets.

Highlights from the report:

• Insights from numerous executive interviews with market leading companies.

• Comprehensive description of the electric aircraft and eVTOL value chain and key use cases.

• Analysis of the ground infrastructure needed and how eVTOLs will be handled in the airspace.

• In-depth analysis of market trends and key developments.

• Profiles of 20 electric aircraft and eVTOL manufacturers.

• Summary of the certification process and handling of safety concerns.

• Market forecasts and scenario analysis lasting until 2050.

Table of Contents

• Table of Contents
• Table of Contents
• List of Figures
• Executive Summary

1. Introduction

• 1.1. The aviation market
• 1.2. The concept of electric aviation
• 1.3. Drivers behind electrification of aircraft and eVTOLs
  • 1.3.1. Reduced costs
  • 1.3.2. Regional travel market
  • 1.3.3. Emissions reductions
  • 1.3.4. Noise reductions
  • 1.3.5. Increased accessibility
  • 1.3.6. Economic development

2. Electric Aircraft and eVTOLs

• 2.1. Electric aircraft
  • 2.1.1. Retrofit
  • 2.1.2. Traditional design
  • 2.1.3. New design
  • 2.1.4. Size versus range
  • 2.1.5. Battery versus hydrogen
• 2.2. eVTOLs
  • 2.2.1. Wingless multicopter
  • 2.2.2. Fixed wing
  • 2.2.3. Tilted wing and/or propellers
• 2.3. Risk assessment regarding eVTOLs
  • 2.3.1. Certification
  • 2.3.2. Infrastructure
  • 2.3.3. Technology
  • 2.3.4. Operations
  • 2.3.5. Public awareness

3. Technology Overview

• 3.1. Batteries
• 3.2. Hydrogen
• 3.3. Airframes
• 3.4. Communications technology and autonomous flight
  • 3.4.1. Navigation and communications systems
  • 3.4.2. IoT connectivity
  • 3.4.3. A possible pathway to autonomous flights

4. Ecosystem and Regulatory Framework

• 4.1. Ecosystem
  • 4.1.1. Charging
  • 4.1.2. Battery power - challenges
  • 4.1.3. Hydrogen power - challenges
  • 4.1.4. Take off and landing infrastructure
  • 4.1.5. Airport infrastructure
  • 4.1.6. MRO
• 4.2. Regulatory framework
  • 4.2.1. Certification and standardisation
  • 4.2.2. Safety
  • 4.2.3. Airspace management
  • 4.2.4. Sustainability

5. Regional Air Mobility and Urban Air Mobility

• 5.1. Regional Air Mobility - possible market development and use cases
  • 5.1.1. How will the market evolve - different scenarios
  • 5.1.2. User experience
• 5.2. Urban Air Mobility - possible market development and use cases
  • 5.2.1. How will the market evolve - different scenarios
  • 5.2.2. User experience
• 5.3. Implications for regional and city planning
  • 5.3.1. Education
  • 5.3.2. Permits
  • 5.3.3. Short term city planning
  • 5.3.4. Long term city planning
  • 5.3.5. Regional planning
  • 5.3.6. Transport planning and integration

6. Company Profiles and Strategies

• 6.1. Aircraft
  • 6.1.1. Bye Aerospace
  • 6.1.2. Eviation
  • 6.1.3. Heart Aerospace
  • 6.1.4. MagniX
  • 6.1.5. Pipistrel
  • 6.1.6. Universal Hydrogen
  • 6.1.7. Wright Electric
  • 6.1.8. ZeroAvia
• 6.2. eVTOLs
  • 6.2.1. Archer
  • 6.2.2. Beta Technologies
  • 6.2.3. CityAirbus NextGen
  • 6.2.4. EHang
  • 6.2.5. Eve Air Mobility
  • 6.2.6. Joby Aviation
  • 6.2.7. Lilium
  • 6.2.8. Supernal
  • 6.2.9. Volocopter
  • 6.2.10. XPeng (AeroHT)
  • 6.2.11. Vertical Aerospace
  • 6.2.12. Wisk

7. Market Forecasts and Scenarios

• 7.1. Market segmentation
• 7.2. Market size
  • 7.2.1. Commercial eVTOLs
  • 7.2.2. Privately owned eVTOLs
  • 7.2.3. Electric aircraft
  • 7.2.4. The current electric eVTOL and aircraft order stock
  • 7.2.5. IoT Connectivity
• 7.3. Market value
• 7.4. Business models and use cases
• 7.5. Concluding remarks

• List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: IATA strategy towards net zero
• Figure 2.1: Example of a retrofit design
• Figure 2.2: Example of a traditional design
• Figure 2.3: Example of a new design
• Figure 2.4: Linear and nodal transportation networks
• Figure 2.5: Example of wingless multicopter design
• Figure 2.6: Example of fixed wing design
• Figure 2.7: Example of tilted propeller design
• Figure 3.1: Schematic of electric propulsion concepts
• Figure 3.2: Schematic of energy efficiency for electric and fuel cell propulsion
• Figure 3.3: Potential range for battery all-electric aircraft
• Figure 4.1: The ecosystem of advanced air mobility
• Figure 4.2: Examples of vertiport designs
• Figure 4.3: Commercial certification of electric aircraft (forecast)
• Figure 4.4: Commercial certification of piloted eVTOL (forecast)
• Figure 4.5: Sensor technologies to be used by eVTOLs
• Figure 4.6: eVTOL Control Centre
• Figure 5.1: Potential market for different vehicles
• Figure 5.2: Example of range and use cases for regional air mobility
• Figure 5.3: Commercial implementation steps
• Figure 5.4: Examples of potential eVTOL use cases
• Figure 6.1: Number of global eVTOL projects
• Figure 6.2: eFlyer 800 specifications
• Figure 6.3: Eviation Alice specifications
• Figure 6.4: Heart ES-30 specifications
• Figure 6.5: Magni 350 EPU and Magni 650 EPU specifications
• Figure 6.6: Pipistrel Velis Electro specifications
• Figure 6.7: Roadmap regarding drivetrain
• Figure 6.8: Archer eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 6.9: Beta Alia specifications
• Figure 6.10: CityAirbus NextGen specifications
• Figure 6.11: EH216 and VT-30 specifications
• Figure 6.12: Eve eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 6.13: Joby S4 specifications
• Figure 6.14: Lilium Jet specifications
• Figure 6.15: S-A1 specifications
• Figure 6.16: VoloCity and VoloConnect specifications
• Figure 6.17: X2 specifications
• Figure 6.18: VX4 specifications
• Figure 6.19: Wisk eVTOL vehicle specifications
• Figure 7.1: Passenger aircraft timeline
• Figure 7.2: eVTOL timeline
• Figure 7.3: Shipments of eVTOLs (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.4: Shipments of privately owned eVTOLs (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.5: Shipments of electric aircraft (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.6: Connected vehicles in commercial and private use (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.7: Commercial eVTOL market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.8: Private eVTOL market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.9: Electric aircraft market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.10: Electric aircraft market value (2021-2050)
• Figure 7.11: Use case: eVTOL vertiport in a small city
• Figure 7.12: Use case: eVTOL vertiport in a dense urban area
• Figure 7.13: Use case: Regional airport/airfield - an initial scenario