PJM的BRA (必要電力供給量競標) 的結果 (2024/25年):市場是落到底的嗎？

分析概要

PJM最近發佈了延遲的2024/25交付年度基礎剩餘拍賣(BRA)的結果。雖然RTO價格在本次拍賣中有所下降，但我們認為PJM的產能價格可能正在觸底，價格上漲趨勢可能即將到來。做出該決定的原因有以下三個。

• 較低的預期能源和輔助服務 (E&AS) 抵消了即將舉行的拍賣中的價值
• PJM整體供需平衡的短期性窘迫
• 由於發電商對冬季風暴埃利奧特暴露的業績不佳風險做出反應，未來的出價行為不確定。

本報告提供美國的電力市場上最新的發電容量競標的結果彙整，關於今後的競標價格趨勢預測考察。

Report Summary:

PJM recently posted results of the delayed 2024/25 delivery year Base Residual Auction (BRA). While RTO prices declined in this auction, our view is that capacity prices in PJM may be bottoming out and an increasing price trend may be forthcoming. In this insight, we lay out three reasons for this view:

• Lower expected energy and ancillary services (E&AS) offset values in upcoming auctions

• A tightening supply and demand balance across PJM in the near-term

• Uncertain future bidding behavior as generators react to underperformance risk exposed by Winter Storm Elliott.